NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on October 28, 2012, 12:44:22 PM
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I've had a few requests for this thread. You can post reports, conditions, general discussion and any general assistance needed during and after the storm(non-emergent). Forecasts and Official Weather Information from the NWS will still continue on the other thread.
BE SAFE...only thing left to do is chrz and pcrn!
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t^
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Just as a reminder this storm when it hits will not be a tropical storm and that is why you will not see tropical storm warnings. This will be categorized as a true Nor'easter by the time it hits us.
The B-pressure is dropping and now is 29.70 inHG or 1013 millibars. It is slow and steadily dropping and will continue through the night.
Paul
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Pending any major disasters to my or my mother in laws houses, Ill make myself available to help anyone out that needs it this comming weekend 11/3 and 11/4.... Prior to becomming an prop. ins adjuster, I have a backround in mitigating water / fire damages to homes,business, and doing restoration construction.etc etc........I also have 2 12yrold laborers.....and would be willing to answer any prop insurance related questions you may have.
My email info
mbailey33@msn.com
Cell 215-680-5946
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Very Thoughtful of you Matt
Your Experties should be very helpful to whom ever may need them.
Stay Safe Sir.
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Matt. with this predicted huge storm surge and tide.. how does that calculate say 5 miles inland where my boat is?
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Matt. with this predicted huge storm surge and tide.. how does that calculate say 5 miles inland where my boat is?
Rod, if you are 5 miles due west away from all water, you should be ok.
Here are some SLOSH Maps that show how much water would come in based on Category Hurricanes. We are averaging 4-8 foot storm surge, which is equal to a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 storm.
Ocean County SLOSH/Storm Surge Map (http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/pdf/maps/ocean_slosh.pdf)
NHC SLOSH Interactive Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/risk/)
This map is interactive and updates based upon storm tide gauges or buoys placed out before the storm. It should give real time, or close to real time data of storm surge heights.
USGS Storm Tide Map (http://54.243.149.253/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=c07fae08c20c4117bdb8e92e3239837e)
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Checked out the maps. Flood wise, I'm okay, it's the wind I'm worried about.
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To lighten it up some...
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Shark River Inlet...1pm, 10-28-12. Prior to Hurricane Sandy. Sorry for the wind noise in the video. :P
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Matt. with this predicted huge storm surge and tide.. how does that calculate say 5 miles inland where my boat is?
Rod, if you are 5 miles due west away from all water, you should be ok.
Here are some SLOSH Maps that show how much water would come in based on Category Hurricanes. We are averaging 4-8 foot storm surge, which is equal to a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 storm.
Ocean County SLOSH/Storm Surge Map (http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/pdf/maps/ocean_slosh.pdf)
NHC SLOSH Interactive Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/risk/)
This map is interactive and updates based upon storm tide gauges or buoys placed out before the storm. It should give real time, or close to real time data of storm surge heights.
USGS Storm Tide Map (http://54.243.149.253/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=c07fae08c20c4117bdb8e92e3239837e)
Concerned about the boat. she's on a floating Dock and will maintain 6' over normal high tide.. this would put the town of Barnegat under water.
Arrow shows the boat. tides were always minimal back here.. maybe 3 feet up and down..
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When in doubt pull it out...
Anything east of Rt. 9 is in trouble according to the SLOSH model How much is not sire as this is a Nor'easter all the wind will keep the tides in the bay with no way out till the wind direction changes.
I don't want to step on Matt's topics but being in Emergency Management for so many years and used SLOSH, yes it is a guidance reference but it pretty much is right on.
Paul
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When in doubt pull it out...
Anything east of Rt. 9 is in trouble according to the SLOSH model How much is not sire as this is a Nor'easter all the wind will keep the tides in the bay with no way out till the wind direction changes.
I don't want to step on Matt's topics but being in Emergency Management for so many years and used SLOSH, yes it is a guidance reference but it pretty much is right on.
Paul
No one is stepping on my topics at all! The more information the better! We all welcome your expertise, Paul. You have walked this line before...
TT^
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Maybe for those that can trailer their boats to high ground.. 3 feet of water will float all the boats on land off their stands.. the floating dock will maintain 6 feet above normal high tide..
The Marina even said we have a better chance on the dock. I was just trying to find the estimated high of the water back there.. I can't figure it out
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Rod,
It is all probabilities. There is 10% chance that storm surge will exceed 10 feet, 50% chance of 3-5 feet. They are calling for 4-8 feet, so your chances are much lower for hitting 6 feet or more, but anything is possible.
Here is an interactive map...at the top pick the percentage and then scroll down and click on Google Map. Use the key from the first page and compare that to the area.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=m1
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Here is a pic taken from the perspective of a boat on land compared to my boat, left in the water.
Notice the water line on the boat on land. Now notice the height of the pilings where the dock floats.
The piling is better than three feet above the water line of the boat on the hard. In other words, when the water rises to the water line of the boat on land, the pilings will have another three feet plus before the docks go 'floating away'.
(http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg80/irishayes_photos/010-4.jpg)
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Guess.. all we can do is hope for the best..
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Guess.. all we can do is hope for the best..
TT^
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Casino Pier Live cam
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/casino-pier-northeast_4279/
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This mornings high tide brought the water up 2" on my road today at 4pm the tides were already covering most of the marsh fcp Im glad Mike and i got our boats where we did yesterday because you cant put a bike in that parking lot today.
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Matt mentioned the SLOSH models in case you are not familiar with this term it stands for "Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes" .
This model only helps in decision making like what roads to keep open and which ones to close. What shelters to open and which ones to keep closed. Not all shelters will open for some very specific flooding reasons.
If you have any questions on shelters please ask as all most every county has a list on line for you to check.
Be Safe
Paul
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As of 4pm today Union Beach has issued a mandatory evacuation, They have also issued a curfew for all children under 18 to be off the streets by 8 am. There is a shelter set up at Memorial School on Morningside Ave should anyone in the area need it, Pets are welcome here as long as you have a carrier or crate for them, they ask that you bring food and water and personal hygiene products.
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I can see Rod in the Phyllis Ann going up the crest of this wave "C'MON, YOU B*#$H!"
From a NOAA Buoy southeast of the storm.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/41048.jpg)
;D
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700 pm tidal water covering my entire street and coming up my driveway fcp Wish i had a camera there
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JCP&L power outage web site
http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj_m.html
If you click on the shaded area it will tell you how many customers do not have power.
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As of 4pm today Union Beach has issued a mandatory evacuation, They have also issued a curfew for all children under 18 to be off the streets by 8 am. There is a shelter set up at Memorial School on Morningside Ave should anyone in the area need it, Pets are welcome here as long as you have a carrier or crate for them, they ask that you bring food and water and personal hygiene products.
Yikes! nosmly
Here in Lacey we have a mandatory evacuation order for anyone within 1000' of the water. We are not that close (maybe 2000'), so we are not required to leave. But we are planning to leave in the morning to go to my brother-in-law's house in Jackson to hunker down. ;D
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Good Move Bob..
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Good luck.
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Be safe Bob...
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NWS Hurricane center just released latest update....now storm has strengthened and has 90 mph winds at the center.... nosmly
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We lost power for 20 minutes already, I have only seen 15 mph gust so far. rgmn
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We lost power for 20 minutes already, I have only seen 15 mph gust so far. rgmn
Rick that was a reallity CHECK nosmly
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Sandy took out the pier in Ocean City Md.
http://mobile.wboc.com/wap/news/text.jsp?sid=167&nid=1202548596&cid=3873&scid=-1&ith=0&title=Top+Stories&headtitle=Top+Stories
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We lost power for 20 minutes already, I have only seen 15 mph gust so far. rgmn
Same here in Branchburg. Winds are light yet power still went down for a bit. We lose power if two people sneeze at once around here.
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We just had a tree come down in the back yard and split the yard in 2. The hot tub is a goner though.
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That stinks Paul, hope everyone is OK.
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No good! Worried about a couple of trees here and my vehicles.
Be safe...
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Parkway exit 128 south closed at 4 pm
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She is sitting right around the canyons....picked up speed...moving close to 30 MPH now....landfall in 3 hours now it seems....which is 3 hours before the tide......
Oh and still no Hurricane Warning for NJ. :headscra:
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Everyone is okay here just a little shaken up. We moved my daughters room down to the basement as her room is on the side of the house where all the trees are.
the speed is a good thing as it will be here and gone and the start of picking up the pieces.
Its a good thing that we put the kayaks in the garage as one of the limbs took out the dog run where they were being stored.
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That's scary Paul! Glad you're all safe.
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That Sucks Paul.. Be safe brother
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She is sitting right around the canyons....picked up speed...moving close to 30 MPH now....landfall in 3 hours now it seems....which is 3 hours before the tide......
Oh and still no Hurricane Warning for NJ. :headscra:
There will not be any tropical watches or warnings issued because this is not really a hurricane, it is a hybrid storm. Hurricanes do not have wind fields this large and the storm is no longer being powered by convection and warm waters. This was a big argument among the weather agencies. It was expected that when the turn was made, it would speed up being picked up the the trough/front. This is good, but landfall still leaves 500 miles of storm to get through still. The effects of storm surge will be felt way beyond landfall and the next high tide. Water is likely to be backed up in the bays for days.
TT^
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Crazy Paul! Glad everyone is ok!
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Then they should stop calling it hurricane sandy
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The fact that they are not posting Hurricane warnings may be a good thing for a homeowner from an insurance standpoint.....many companies that charge Hurricane Deductibles (1% to 5%+ of the limits on the policy which equates to thousands of dollar deductibles) charge that deductible when the storm is officially classified as a hurricane by the NWS or other Govt weather agencys) then a "Hurricane Watch or Warning must be issued", with this being classified as a hybrid storm, many insurance companies may charge their insds the normal policy deductible, which can be thousands less than a hurricane deductible. That all varies state by state though. I know in NY that it has to be a Cat2 Hurricane for the insurance companies to charge that exhorbanent deductible....Ill check what Jersey is.
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Thats all well and good...im just sayin this is a damn HURRICANE!
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hhppy hey man, dont shoot the messenger ovrbt
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Not at all.....just saying....as long as it is on the water and has an eye.....its a HURRICANE
Once center is on land they can call it whatever they want
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Not at all.....just saying....as long as it is on the water and has an eye.....its a HURRICANE
Once center is on land they can call it whatever they want
Not true Captain Carl...not true at all!!
ovrbt ;D
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True as hell....was a hurricane in the carribean no?....same storm.....HURRICANE SANDY
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Weather channel just said it is a hurricane still....then will be noreaster
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True as hell....was a hurricane in the carribean no?....same storm.....HURRICANE SANDY
Weather channel just said it is a hurricane still....then will be noreaster
You can call it what you want, but from a meteorological standpoint this is not a hurricane. If this was truly a hurricane the NHC would have 100% issued Watches and Warnings...which they did not! Many reasons...if this was a tropical hurricane it would have died off in Georgia. The water is not warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones run off of warm water and convection or thunderstorms...see any thunderstorms in this storm? Around Georgia this storm starting changing, from barotropic to baroclinic, running off of temperature difference between air aloft and ocean waters, reliant on pressure...hence why the pressure is that of almost at Category 3 Storm with only Category 1 winds. The wind field is about 500-600 miles wider than a hurricane. What would be only 30-40mph winds to the north are really 75-80mph creating a massive storm surge. This storm is not flowing tropical moisture out of the ocean onto land either. A tropical cyclone would bring 12+ inches of rain, not less. This is a left sided storm, with most of the rain in the southwest side, not northeast and east side like a tropical cyclone would have. This is a hybrid, soon to be extratropical storm. Landfall does not change or effect what the storm actually is...
This was the argument with the NWS. They can't actually post tropical cyclone watches and warnings because it is not truly tropical. However, the NHC continues to track the storm and this is benefitting us. If they had turned the storm over to the other Center, we would no longer get winds, direction and speed or central pressure and air recon would be done. So, while I agree that tropical watches and warnings would have been taken more seriously, the action taken by the NHC was for the best of all affected!
TT^ pcrn
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This hurricane just took my power. rgmn
Boy all the kids want to talk to me now that they don't have power to run their Internet.
I'll let them stew awhile before I turn on the generator rofla
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Phish.....I see 2 threads that you started with Hurricane on it.....last time I checked they don't name noreasters.....they compared it all day to Irene....another hurricane.....and its not a hurricane all of a sudden.
I can call it what I want....and I call it a HURRICANE.
I WIN! ;D
I'm not all sophisticated in the meterological slang.....and you do an excellent job as the NJSWF Weather man....keep it up buddy!
I think.if my boat goes down, I just want to be able to say it was in a HURRICANE! rofla
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Phish.....I see 2 threads that you started with Hurricane on it.....last time I checked they don't name noreasters.....they compared it all day to Irene....another hurricane.....and its not a hurricane all of a sudden.
I can call it what I want....and I call it a HURRICANE.
I WIN! ;D
I'm not all sophisticated in the meterological slang.....and you do an excellent job as the NJSWF Weather man....keep it up buddy!
I think.if my boat goes down, I just want to be able to say it was in a HURRICANE! rofla
Ok im outta this one (http://i888.photobucket.com/albums/ac82/mbailey166066/bolt.gif)
before i get this done to me
(http://i888.photobucket.com/albums/ac82/mbailey166066/asshand.gif)
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Oh boy. The ovrbt continues.
I was looking at radar. It definitely had CARLcentric rotation. rofla
pcrn
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Phish.....I see 2 threads that you started with Hurricane on it.....last time I checked they don't name noreasters.....they compared it all day to Irene....another hurricane.....and its not a hurricane all of a sudden.
I can call it what I want....and I call it a HURRICANE.
I WIN! ;D
I'm not all sophisticated in the meterological slang.....and you do an excellent job as the NJSWF Weather man....keep it up buddy!
I think.if my boat goes down, I just want to be able to say it was in a HURRICANE! rofla
You win slt!!
OK, Hurricane for boat insurance and not a hurricane for homeowners...best of both worlds. Can it work that way, Matt :headscra: ;D??
rofla
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This hurricane just took my power. rgmn
Boy all the kids want to talk to me now that they don't have power to run their Internet.
I'll let them stew awhile before I turn on the generator rofla
Good thing you have the generator! They won't be happy if it took out the internet lines too ;D.
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I fish with Carl, and i dont want to swim home......I plead the 5th. rofla
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Ok im outta this one (http://i888.photobucket.com/albums/ac82/mbailey166066/bolt.gif)
before i get this done to me
(http://i888.photobucket.com/albums/ac82/mbailey166066/asshand.gif)
Nahhhh, I'm easy going... ttp ;D!
Oh boy. The ovrbt continues.
I was looking at radar. It definitely had CARLcentric rotation. rofla
pcrn
rofla hhppy
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I'm good now...thanks Pfish....I needed that!....took my mind off the boat for a few!
rofla
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Lost power around 4. Hooked up modem and router to inverter. Wind seems to be calming down some.
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Just lost power here also) fcp
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Call it what you like: Hurricane Sandy, Tropical Storm Sandy, Sandy the Nor'easter, Sandy Koufax, or Sandy Duncan.
Can we just all agree IT'S A BIG FREAKIN' STORM! ;D
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My cable is out so no internet except by cell which is extremely slow and intermittent. Still have power though!
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Trees are dropping like flies all around my town.
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You guys do know last year this day we had that snow storm?
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Remember it well...the tree that hit my house did 30k in damages >:(
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Amen Bucktail . t^
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Remember it well...the tree that hit my house did 30k in damages >:(
fcp
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We are back... WOW, what a rush that was. I will post pictures tomorrow. One tree down that just missed the house by about 12 to 15 feet and another huge branch that came down and the leaves hit the house but did not even dent the rain gutter or downspout.
I will be looking for a good chain saw once this is all over. I guess I will have plenty of fire wood for the fire pit next year.
The hot tub is toast as the tree came to rest right on top of it. Good thing we were not in it at the time... pcrn
How did everyone else make out?
Paul
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I got workers available with climbing gear and chain saws if anyone needs work done
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Just a lot of wind for me in Mercer County. speaking with John in forked river and the water is coming up fast. 3-4 feet over normal high tide.. fcp
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The wind is kicking upthere. The roof blew off the bar upstairs from the tackle shop at the Atlantic highlands marina.
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It's nuts in Branchburg right now. Huge winds, still have power though. Crazy thing is I can actually smell the ocean in the air
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Blowing a steady 35 mph hear. Town called no one on the roads till 7am. Trees and wires down all over. Just had a gust at 53.4 mph.
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Still have power here in Garfield, some trees down and Passaic river up quite a bit. I'm hunkered down and fine.
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Just lost a tree in the front, think I lost one in the back too. Still completely blown away that I can smell the ocean in the air. The wind is howling now.
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We are starting to experience some strong winds coming out of the east south east. There will be rain bands getting ready to come ashore. Plus we are also starting to have power dips again. Still have power but for how long.
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You guys do know last year this day we had that snow storm?
That storm took out a huge tree branch that got wedged and stuck up there. Only way it was ever coming down was a tree service or a hurricane. Well, a year to the day....down it came!
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Lost power here in Jaxkson. Wind is honking. Saw at least 1/2 dozen bright blue flashes and the loud buzz of wires shorting out. Got a feeling it's going 2 be a loooong time before power is restored and we are back to normal. nosmly
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Power is out know as well...been on and off numerous times, but I think we are put for good!!
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Still hardly any rain up here yet.. but the wind is starting to really gust up.. house is surrounded by oaks..but so far only small branches hitting the house..Even with no rain, the Rondout creek near Kingston has flooded the highway just on the push of the tidal surge from the Hudson.. 100 miles away from the mouth of the river.. never seen that.. can only imagine how bad the flooding is down there... nosmly stay safe gang..
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Just got word from my niece in Brick that the Mantoloking Bridge was taken out by a floating house! cfzd
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Lost power here. Running Honda 1000w. Some lights and frig
Nice seeing a burning build.
What rising high in forget river. Not looking good. For the boats.
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Boats are smashing into houses in the highlands and floating down the river all over the place.....
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Just heard that a house has hit the bridge
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My township just declared a state of emergency no cars on the roads till further notice.
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What rising high in forget river. Not looking good. For the boats.
I think that should say: Water rising high in Forked River.
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Well add me to the power outage list.
Gen is chained to the hitch of my truck and running. Frig, micro, kurig, lights and chargers powered. I'm sure the neighbors love me with that thing roaring in the driveway. I did have one neighbor bring their frozen food over so it didnt go to waste.
Wind has been at it's worst here for the last 2 hours. Almost no rain. Barometer is starting to rise slowly now.
Now it's a party! Chrz
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Yes forked river.
1000 wat Honda. Running frig and 2 lights
Unplug frig and it runs the keurig.
Transformers lighting up the sky.
This is epic. I already expect to have list the boat nosmly
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Had one big pine hit the house, along with 2 others down on the property. Power out too. I've been reading these reports from the Highlands and other waterfront areas.......all I can say is my every thought and prayer are with those people. I have this horrible feeling were going to wake up to some epic devastation.
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Wow! Good luck all! I am thinking about you. We lost power about 2 hours ago. 900w gen powering fridge, radio and chargers.
My brother-in-law is the chief of a fire company in Levittown. He almost lost an entire crew from a falling tree. They were rescuing 2 children pinned under a tree inside a house when another tree fell near them.
Please guys be safe. Boats are replacable. You are not.
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Clarification on the bridge. They are now saying that the house did hit the bridge, but the bridge WAS NOT damaged.
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Anyone been in contact with BigAl? Mike you heard from him?
Just saw a post on JSHN that there are multiple water rescues and multiple structure fires in Union Beach. That's his hood isnt it?
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No word from BigAl yet. He does live in Union beach and it was hit bad.
Sure he has moved to a safer area.
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No word from BigAl yet. He does live in Union beach and it was hit bad.
Sure he has moved to a safer area.
I just sent him a text
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From The Weather Channel:
"Given that Sandy is no longer officially a hurricane, The Weather Channel and weather.com will refer to the system as 'Superstorm Sandy'".
Please call her by her rightful name. TT^
ovrbt
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Seen a post from Capt Kris that said all boats on blocks in belmar are in a pile or floated away. He is going there now
Very sad.
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Im sure this is the case at most places.
Sad indeed.
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I was instructed to report to work this morning and did not even get past County Line Road before I was stopped by the Jackson Police. When I told him where I was going and why he said, "Are you kidding me?!" He made it clear that I was not going anywhere and that I needed to turn back immediately. He said they were issuing summonses.
Long story short, stay where you are and wait until the State of Emergency is over.
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I just hooked my phone to the tv. They say rides are in the ocean, houses floating in seaside heights . Train cars on the turnpike due to the surge. Major damage to Nj transit train tracks.
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Just got back from my marina. My boat is fine, was left in the water. Boats that were pulled floated off the blocks and are in the condo yards and on the road. Separate post put up with pics. http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=29712.0
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Hope everyone is ok! I also hope no one has any major losses of property. Still no power, but no major damage here at all...we were very lucky!
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My thoughts and prayers are with you all down there..what a mess nosmly If anyone needs help with anything in the coming days, I have a pickup and a strong back at your disposal.. grtn We really dodged it up here as it passed just to our west..It gusted for a while but never got bad, nor did we lose power...I got a call early this am from my broker John.. I can't thank him and guys at manasquan river club enough for their help getting Fluka out and cared for.. he said a couple hundred boats including his, floated off their stands.. thankfully, ours wasn't one of them.. my heart goes out to all those who where not so lucky.. please continue to be safe in the aftermath of this thing.. and again, I stand ready to provide assistance to anyone in need.
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Got this photo of the boardwalk/pier in Seaside. Sad.
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Wow! I haven't seen a tv since 8pm last night. I'm glad everyone seems ok. If I can help let me know. We're safe here but still without power.
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Tanker washed up on beach in Staten Island.
http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/tanker-run-aground-superstorm-120726358--abc-news-topstories.html