NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: July 7-11, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

A mixed week with hot temperatures, showers and thunderstorms and Cautious water conditions to start the week. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms all week. Showers and thunderstorms will be mostly scattered to widely scattered, however Monday and Tuesday could see more organized storms and even strong to severe weather possible. Overall, skies look to be more sun than clouds or a mix of sun and clouds. Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday could be breezy with gustier winds. Highs will be in the 70’s to 90’s with 70’s mostly along the coast. Highs inland will be mainly in the 80’s and a couple days of 90’s with moderate to high humidity. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s with some low 60’s, maybe even 50’s late in the week as cooler and drier air moves in. Water conditions will be Cautious with Small Craft Advisories likely on Monday and Tuesday, maybe even into Wednesday, especially Southern waters and Midshore to Offshore. A southerly/southwesterly flow will continue through midweek as well. Winds will increase tonight to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible into Monday. Tuesday will see 10-20 knots and Wednesday will have 10-15 knots with 20 knot gusts possible. Conditions improve later on Wednesday through the weekend. Offshore waters could see seas building to 6-8 feet through Thursday before improving. Surf and beach conditions will be Cautious on Monday and Tuesday, maybe even Wednesday due to gustier winds, high surf and rough surf and moderate to high rip current risks. Conditions will improve around Wednesday then through the weekend. Surf heights could approach 6 feet with a constant 4-5 foot southerly/southwesterly swell. Water temperatures are a few degrees cooler (some places below normal) from upwelling from Arthur and this southerly flow. Temperatures are still in the 60’s and some 70’s for all waters. UV Index will be High to Very High this week. 

High pressure from the Central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico will be the primary influence through Wednesday. A cold front arrives in the Mid Atlantic during midweek and then settles slowly to the south of DELMARVA by Friday. High pressure follows into our area Friday into Saturday before the next cold front moves eastward into the region next weekend.

There is an area being watched in the Atlantic almost exactly where Arthur began, off the Southeast Coast. This disturbance is more north and does not look like it will drift south, but continue off to the northeast. If it doesn’t, this will be something to watch for tropical development and involvement in the area again. Another disturbance is being watched in the Eastern Pacific.

The weekend looks to be a mix of sun and clouds with chances of showers and/or thunderstorms. Highs will continue in the 70’s and 80’s with 60’s and 70’s overnight. Water, surf and beach conditions should be good for the weekend.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly clear to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-20% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms (mostly across the north)
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to 70’s
UV Index:  9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset:  8:28pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 20%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70’s
UV Index:  9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:35am
Sunset:  8:28pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Low 60’s to low 70’s 
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset:  8:27pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to upper 80’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s with mid 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset:  8:27pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to mid 80’s
Low:   Low 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:37am
Sunset:  8:26pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Atlantic Tropical View



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots increasing to S 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon
Seas:    2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then  1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon and evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 12-17 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 9-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  WSW 8-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 9-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 9-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 6-11 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon and evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: N 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  73°F-76°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm decreasing to 1 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming S at 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming E
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 7 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today, mainly across the northern half of NJ. The rest of NJ will have the potential for strong thunderstorms. Storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes are possible.

High temperatures and humidity and daytime heating will create sufficient instability for storms.

Be alert for changing weather today!

[Hunter 2]

Good info, Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Again, there is a Slight Risk of strong to severe storms today! With temperatures in the 90's inland and moderate humidity, long with daytime heating, instability is inevitable. Storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight.

If you need relief from the heat, the beach temperatures are only in the low to mid 70's due to a sea breeze!

Be alert to changing weather conditions and any severe weather.

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all counties in NJ except Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Union.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes!


Storms west of the area in PA are both severe warned and tornado warned and this system has spawned several tornadoes today in Ohio and PA.

Keep an eye to the sky, listen out for any alerts and be aware of changing conditions.

Be safe!!



Severe Thunderstorm Watch #404

[Pfishingruven]

Radar Without Warnings

Radar With Warnings

Yellow-Severe Thunderstorm
Red-Tornado

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has now issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 12 AM for the remaining 5 NE NJ Counties; Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Essex & Union.



Severe Thunderstorm Watch #405

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt.

[Pfishingruven]

Again, strong to severe storms are possible today! Storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes are possible today. With high temperatures, high humidity and daytime heating, instability will be inevitable, again. There is more cloud cover today then the last two days for some areas, so daytime heating may not be at its maximum.

Not all areas have seen severe weather the last two days. Storms have died out as they approach the coastal counties and then quickly regenerate over the water. Just because severe weather has not impacted your area this week, does not mean you should disregard today. Storms killed at least 4 people yesterday; 1 child in Maryland was killed by falling tree limbs and debris as 70 mph winds moved through a Summer Camp and 3 people were killed in NY  State when houses collapsed from high winds, possibly tornadoes!

Be aware of any changing conditions today!

[Pfishingruven]

Low Risk of Severe Weather today. Storms could be strong to severe and will be scattered to even isolated. Instability is not as high as the last several days because of lower highs and less humidity today. Storms could be capable of producing heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and tornado risks cannot be ruled out.

Be alert for changing weather conditions!