Katia

[Hotrod]

WTF...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather/#.TlbB1GX5mSp

This inland storm better push her out.. what are they saying?

[Kenny]

Not again.............

[Pfishingruven]

Basically to early to really predict track or intensity!

As of 1100 AM EST all prediction models(except the UK) have it staying off the East Coast and only brushing Cape Cod.

There are some other factors that will affect this, including TS Lee.

We all need to watch TS Lee, which will most likey affect this area with rain and flooding!

Hopefully, Paul will update us with what he thinks.  He certainly has more knowledge and experience!

 

[Pfishingruven]

All of the newest prediction models bring Katia much closer to the East Coast now.  Still not making landfall, but now brushing the coast in North Carolina, along the Jersey Coast and out along Long Island and along Cape Cod.

The predicted track looks very similar to that of Irene, IMO.

We certainly can't dismiss this storm.  The models and predictions will change back and forth over the next several days.  Just have to keep a close eye on it and keep up to date on the forecasts as they are released.

US Prediction Model(GFS 12Z 09/03/2011)

[Kenny]

Suddenly New Jersey is a hurricane magnet?

We get sept for fluke this year and it's gona be a bust with all these storms tearing up the bottom and crapping out the water...

[Reckless]

Ok Someone in NJ isn't behaving. 

[Pfishingruven]

Another Update!!

Katia has been downgraded back to a Tropical Storm as of 5PM EDT.  The overall decrease is only 5 knots...and is forecasted to intensify back to a hurricane in the next few days.  From there strengthening will really be dependent on multiple factors, including Tropical Storm Lee.

 

[SurfJockey]

I was hearing that she shouldn't pose a problem to us here in NJ.  Maybe I had better pay more attention.  This is the last thing some areas of our state need right now! 

[paul-e]

  Hope for the Best...

[Pfishingruven]

Update:

Not many changes last night and into this morning, but as of 1100 AM Advisories, Katia is now a Category 2 Hurricane with 85 knot winds.  At 5AM this morning, Katia was still only a Tropical Storm not showing any signs of strengthening.  In 6 hours the storm has intensified and organized quite a bit.

Track is still the same.

Here is an interesting fact.  The National Hurricane Center correctly predicted the track of Irene 4 Days in Advance.


National Hurricane Center

[Offshore Madness]

     hope this one just goes out to sea.....

[Pfishingruven]

I am not a meteorologist and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but the newest models out at 12PM all pretty much agree that this storm will miss the coast.  These are just models, though, and we know how weather is.  It is still something to keep an eye on.  The National Hurricane Center isn't going to release a forcasted track to this area for several more days.

The Euro model which had Katia very close to North Carolina and then unknown, now has the storm brushing North Carolina and then going out to sea.  The GFS(American model) has always had the storm far off the coast not affecting land at all.

I will keep everyone posted with any info I come upon and any updates!

GFS Model 12Z 090411

 

[ped579]

Matt your doing a great job keep it up.  I have not been watching this one too closley as it seems to be tracking a bit differently than Irene especially with the storms to our west.  I am trying to close the pool before all this slop hits.  All I have to do is one more vacuuming and the top goes on in the AM.  WA HOO.

[Offshore Madness]

i was watching the weather this morning and it seems katia is gonna eventually head out to sea,but im sure she will let her presents be felt here along the shore with some winds offshore along with some swells....

Maybe we will get lucky again..Dont know about you guys but the ground here is still full of water cant take much more rain................

[TRSteve71]

Someone posted about someone in NJ not behaving.. Its not "someone" its a group of people. As I have said before someone has it out for the cast of Jersey Shore.. I just know those kids made some trouble for the US while over in Italy.. these hurricanes might be the trouble!

[Pfishingruven]

Update 09/05/2011 11:30 AM
 
Hurricane Katia went through some major changes in the last 24 hours, including an eye wall replacement and some intensification up to 95 knots at the border of a Category 2/3 storm.

The good news is that it looks like it will stay offshore and not affect land or make any landfall.  All of the forecasts and prediction models agree on this track.  There could be some increase in wave heights, rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the coast, but that should be all.

We do have to watch the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee.  They could bring more rain and flooding to the area.  Although, it does not look like it will make a direct hit to the area(the bulk of the storm should go off to the west and move north of NJ), they are still calling for rain for the next few days.

This will be the last update for Katia, UNLESS there is any change in the forecasted track that will affect the states.

Tropical weather looks like it may get busy this month with the possibility of a few storms forming and affecting the Gulf Coast states, especially Florida, within the next couple of weeks or so.


GFS 6Z 090511
 

[Hotrod]