NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Aug 25-26, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

Wow, already the last weekend of August…moving into the final stretch of the summer with shorter days and longer nights.  Saturday will have a chance of scattered or isolated showers and/or thunderstorms.  Saturday could be evry cloudy with a easterky onshore flow creating dreary conditions.  Sunday should clear out for the most part.  Highs will be in the mid 80’s and lows in the mid 60’s.  Water conditions are rated good for the entire weekend for both inshore and midshore to offshore locations.  However, Saturday Night into Sunday could see easterly or southeasterly winds at 15 – 20 knots allowing seas to build in excess of 5 feet by Sunday Morning with a chance of small craft advisories. 

Tropics are active with 2 tropical storms and an area of interest.  Please see this thread for the latest tropical update Latest Tropical Update .  I will be updating the tropics on the weekly and weekend outlooks until there is a threat to this area.  If and when that occurs, I will start a dedicated thread to the threat.

High pressure will be in place for the early part of the weekend.  A weak area of low pressure will move into the area off the coast on Saturday bringing an easterly flow and chances of rain and/or thunderstorms.

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Low to mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:18am
Sunset: 7:39pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Sunday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 80’s 
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:19am
Sunset: 7:38pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Friday Night into Saturday Morning Surface Analysis



Saturday’s Surface Analysis



Sunday’s Surface Analysis



HPC Friday - Saturday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



HPC Saturday - Sunday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



HPC Sunday - Tuesday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77F
Saturday Morning
Wind: E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  SE  5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77F
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 12 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 10 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76F
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 10 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  80F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet 
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind:  E 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  E 10 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: E 8 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 10 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Not many changes with the activity in the tropics.  Tropical Storm Isaac and Invest 97L are the two systems to watch.




Tropical Storm Isaac is currently affecting Cuba and forecast to hit the Florida Keys get back out into open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head north towards the panhandle of Florida making landfall somewhere there around Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Isaac is still not very well organized and the interaction with land has not helped at all.  On satellite, Isaac looks very disorganized still.  The NHC is forecasting Isaac to intensify to a Category 2 Hurricane with 100 mph winds.  This will likely occur while paralleling the west coast of Florida while in the Gulf of Mexico where SST's are in the upper 80's still.  This warm water is like throwing gasoline on a fire!  After this system makes landfall current models have it heading into the Ohio Valley and coming into our area sometime by the end of the week as some rainfall.  Right now, they are not even calling for significant rainfall, but this track could change.

Here are stats and current Watches and Warnings:

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER

NHC Isaac Official Track



Isaac Models Tracks





Isaac Models Intensity



Gulf of Mexico Current Sea Surface Temperatures



Joyce is no longer being advised upon by the NHC and will head off to the east.  Invest 97L has a 50% chance of tropical development and does not look like it will affect the US at all, but it should still be watched.

Invest 97L Model Tracks

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a slight risk of severe weather between now and 7am for extreme southern NJ.  The biggest risk is a chance of tornadoes or damaging winds.  If you reside in this area(see map) keep an ear to the weather in case any storms pop up and become severe.  Tornadoes at night are twice as deadly as those during the day, for two main reasons...people are sleeping and you can't see the tornado!

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6pm today, Sunday August 26, 2012 from Sandy Hook, NJ to Fenwick Island, DE NOT INCLUDING New York Harbor/Raritan Bay or Delaware Bay.

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-270415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...E WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.MON...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE...W WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.THU...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ451>453-270415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSTMS LATE. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT.
.THU...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ454-455-270415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY
1 TO 3 NM.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.THU...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ANZ450>455-262200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-120826T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

Not many changes in the tropics.  TS Isaac and Invest 97L are still the only 2 systems active.



TS Isaac hit the Keys and Southern Florida today and will continue to do so for several more hours.  On satellite, Isaac is beginning to look more organized and looking to intensify.  No strengthening has occurred yet, but once it gets out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, there is nothing stopping it from rapid intensification in a short time period.  The NHC has shifted the track west again and have concentrated on New Orleans, LA as ground zero for landfall.  However, there is still a very HIGH uncertainty of track and all Gulf Coast locations should be prepared.  This track into LA, could be catastrophic, keeping Isaac over the Gulf of Mexico waters longer and allowing more intensification.  The NHC is saying only forecasting 100 mph intensity at this time, but in comments from Dr Rick Knabb, Director of the NHC, he is not discounting a major hurricane with 120+ mph winds at landfall.  If this is true, this would be equal to Katrina in 2005!

Isaac Stats, Location and Watches & Warnings

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

NHC Official Isaac Track



Isaac Model Tracks





Isaac Model Intensity



Isaac Satellite Loop
Invest 97L is only at 40% chance of development now and looks like it will not evolve into anything.  Even if it does, it will most likely not affect any US lands and will move out to sea.

Invest 97L Model Tracks