Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Sept 4 - 7, 2012 (Read 10526 times)

Pfishingruven · « **on:** September 02, 2012, 06:49:59 PM »

The remainder of this week is going to be wet. With the remnants of Isaac bringing rain Tuesday through Wednesday, parts of NJ and the surrounding area could see between 2-4 inches of rain and even 4+ inches locally. Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the low to mid 80’s with lows in the mid 60’s. Water conditions are rated good, with cautious and Small Craft Advisories on Wednesday Morning Inshore and Wednesday Morning and Afternoon Midshore to Offshore. Large period swells with rising seas to 5 feet will be persistent all week and gusty winds to 25 knots could affect the area through most of the week. Small Craft Advisories are possible during the remainder of this week.

The tropics are relatively quiet again, with Tropical Storm Leslie forecast to move out to sea away from the US. TS Leslie is still one to watch, as the storm has moved farther west than it was forecast. There is a new area of interest that has a 10% chance of tropical development. This should be watched, but does not look like a threat at this time. Kirk, is a post tropical depression moving off towards Europe.

A frontal boundary across the region will sink south and then stall on Monday. The boundary will move north later Monday as a warm front. It will remain over the area during the midweek as weak areas of low pressure move along it. A cold front from the northwest will move into the area on Thursday Night followed by high pressure for Friday into the weekend.

Tuesday
Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: 60% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day, 70% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night, between 1-4 inches of rain possible
Temperatures
High: Low 80’s
Low: Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:24pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-2/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Wednesday
Sky: Mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night, ½ to ¾ of an inch of rain possible
Temperatures
High: Mid 80’s
Low: Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:28am
Sunset: 7:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-3/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Thursday
Sky: Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day
Temperatures
High: Mid 80’s
Low: Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:29am
Sunset: 7:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Friday
Sky: Mostly Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation: Slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 80’s
Low: Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:30am
Sunset: 7:19pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-
Weather2Hunt.com-

Tuesday Surface Analysis

Wednesday Surface Analysis

Thursday Surface Analysis

Friday Surface Analysis

Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday

NHC Tropics Satellite from September 2, 2012

Leslie Official NHC Track

Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 80F
Tuesday Morning
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: S 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday Morning
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Wed Afternoon
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind: W 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: W 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind: NW 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind: S 5 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 77F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 15 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 2 to 2 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 77F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 15 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 14 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 22 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 14 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 78F
Tuesday Morning
Wind: S 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind: S 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind: SW 10 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind: SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind: N 5 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind: SE 5 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)

Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 16 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 15 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: SE 8 feet at 14 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SE 8 feet at 14 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 14 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 14 sec.

NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

Pfishingruven · « **Reply #1 on:** September 03, 2012, 03:27:16 PM »

I just wanted to update the rain/flooding potential this week and the new developments and changes in the tropics

There is a lot of tropical moisture in the atmosphere as remnants of Hurricane Isaac make their way through our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is forecasting 2.5 – 4 inches of rain and even more locally for the area. Northern areas of NJ will receive the most rain, while southern areas will see less amounts. Right now, there are not any Watches, Warnings or Advisories posted by the NWS, but areas to our west and south (Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland) have had Flood Advisories and even Flood Warnings already from thunderstorms moving through those areas. The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) has issued a “Significant River Flooding Possible” for NJ on Tuesday and Wednesday. This outlook is issued for larger rivers. Smaller rivers and streams will most likely experience some flooding or flash flooding. Flash flooding could also be an issue for the entire area. If you are in low lying areas or experience localized flooding and flash flooding from rain storms, make sure you take the proper precautions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing out storm/sewer drains on your street can also help prevent flooding conditions or large amounts of standing water to back up on the streets. Over the next several days, make sure you are keeping an eye on the weather and follow any local warnings. Remember, NEVER drive a vehicle through flooded roadways…”TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!” “HIDE FROM WIND, RUN FROM WATER!”

Water Vapor Satellite Image (current)

HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Monday - Thursday

HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Monday - Saturday

NAM Model Forecast of Precipitable Water

Flash Flood Guidance-1 Hour

Flash Flood Guidance-3 Hour

Flash Flood Guidance-6 Hour

Significant River Flood Outlook

Now for the tropics. There are not any big changes. Tropical Storm Leslie and now Invest 99L are active in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Leslie currently has winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 998mb. The NHC is forecasting this storm to become a strong Category 1 Hurricane with 90 mph winds. Leslie is still forecast to remain out at sea, however the recent track has moved west more and brings the storm closer to the coast. Leslie will likely impact Bermuda as a hurricane, sometime on Saturday. This is going to bring longer period swells, building sea heights, gusty winds, dangerous rip currents, high surf, possibly beach erosion and even some minor coastal flooding to the area for the rest of this week, persisting into the weekend and even next week. Right now, Leslie is not a very large storm, but does have the potential to become a moderate sized storm with a wide core of hurricane and tropical storm force winds extending from the center.

TS Leslie Advisory

Quote

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE MAINTAINING 60 MPH WINDS...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. SWELLS COULD ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropics Visible Satellite

NHC Official Leslie Track

Leslie Model Tracks

Leslie Surface Wind Field

Leslie GFS Model 141hrs

Leslie Euro Model 141hrs

Leslie Euro Model 180hrs

Leslie Satellite Loops

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-rb-long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-vis-long.html

Invest 99L was the area of interest in the Atlantic Ocean that has now been given a 60% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. I believe we will see this become a tropical depression and then a named storm within this 48 hour period. It is too early to tell where this will go, but likely will remain out at sea. Of course, just because it does not make landfall doesn’t mean it won’t affect the coast with the same effects Tropical Storm Leslie will cause.

Invest 99L Model Tracks

GFS 384hrs

Invest 99L Satellite Loops

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-vis-long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-rb-long.html

**If anyone has any questions on anything, especially the graphics, please feel free to comment within here or send me a PM or email.

-Matt

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Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Sept 4 - 7, 2012 (Read 10526 times)