NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Sept 8-9, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

It is going to be a wet weekend or at least a start of the weekend.  Showers and/or thunderstorms will move in Friday Night and stick around possibly until Sunday afternoon/evening.  However, the models are trending towards speeding up the frontal boundary movement and Sunday could end up with lower chances of rain and higher chances of being dry most of the day.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80’s with lows in the low to mid 60’s.  Water conditions are different for all ranges and locations.  Some areas are good, while others are rated cautious and will have small craft advisories posted.  There is still a long period swell with 4-5 foot seas affecting the general area and Saturday and Sunday will likely see some gusty winds causing small craft advisories.  Surf conditions will continue to be high and rough with a high risk of rip currents all weekend and extending into next week.

The front to our south will move back across the area over the weekend bringing low pressure systems along the front.  This front will move off to the east later on Sunday allowing high pressure to build in behind it.

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% (day), 60% (night) chance of showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 7:17pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-9/10
Weather2Hunt.com-27/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% (day), Slight (night) chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s  
Low:  Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:32am
Sunset: 7:16pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-30/50

Friday Night into Saturday Morning Surface Analysis



Saturday’s Surface Analysis



Sunday’s Surface Analysis



HPC Thursday - Sunday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



HPC Sunday - Tuesday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast



Flash Flood Guidance 1 hour



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78F
Saturday Morning
Wind: S 10-15 knots, increasing 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots, becoming SW 10-15 knots, becoming W 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  NW  10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  75F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 14 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 13 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 14 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  76F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet  
Saturday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Sunday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Sunday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SE 7 feet at 14 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: SE 7 feet at 14 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hotrod]

 

Good couple weeks to be redoing the bathroom...

[Pfishingruven]

Good couple weeks to be redoing the bathroom...

Yes!  These effects from Hurricane Leslie are going to be around all next week and possibly into next weekend as well.  Too far out to say for sure, but all of the models are pretty much in agreement already!

 

[Ms Fish]

Noooooooooooo its the end of fluking season this cant be happening!!!!!  I dunno if I can sneak another day or two off during the week this month with the audit I am doing...man.... I will have to work harder on the weather gods, send them some positive happiness and good karma to make this blow away.  How sad........  

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for a large area from the Ohio Valley through to the Mid Atlantic up to the Northeast and south to the the Carolinas.  For almost all of NJ and parts of PA, NY, CT, into New England and south in Maryland, there is a much higher risk up to 30% with a thatched area(increasing the risk).  I believe this area may see an upgrade to a Moderate Risk tomorrow.

There are two frontal boundaries, cold fronts, that are going to collide over or very near to northern NJ.  This will bring the chance of the severe weather.  This will be a widespread event with organized storms with damaging straight line winds.  Supercells may form embedded in the squall lines as the storms move eastward.  These supercells could produce tornadoes.  The worst is forecast for the late afternoon and evening, even into the overnight hours.  Storms are possible all day, however, if we get daytime heating from any sun that is able to make it through the clouds, it will increase the chances of severe weather tomorrow.  Some type of Weather Watch is highly likely tomorrow afternoon.

I will update this as the information becomes available.  Tomorrow is definitely a day to keep a watch on the weather.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has upgraded the risk for most of NJ as of 1:30 PM from a Slight Risk to a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather at 45% chance and a thatched area meaning there is a 10% or greater probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point.

This is pretty significant almost 24 hours in advance as the NWS & SPC are very conservative!!

An organized squall line will form out in the Ohio Valley and move into the area.  This will be widespread with the possibility of small cells, small clusters and supercells to pop up before and after the main storms move through.  The biggest threat is of damaging straight line winds (derecho event) as well as embedded and supercells that are able to form ahead of the line and spawn tornadoes.  The bigger risk for tornadoes will be for Northern NJ, however, every where in the risk box needs to be aware they are possible.  There will also be a risk of flash flooding and flood conditions from the rains due to the already saturated areas!

These straight line winds can be as strong or stronger and just as damaging and deadly as a tornado, so take appropriate precautions and shelter if warned.  However, unlike a tornado warning, straight line winds will only receive a Severe Thunderstorm Warning most likely with special instructions.  If you are in the path of straight line winds, as long as there is not any flooding risks, follow all safety instructions for a tornado.  Take shelter in the lowest floor of a house or buidling and if you do not have a basement, go to the most interior room without windows.

I will update you as the updates come in.  Tomorrow is definitely a day to keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the NWS!

Tornado Safety

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a Briefing Package from the NWS PHI on threat of severe weather tomorrow!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

[Pfishingruven]

There are no changes in the forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.  Most of NJ and surrounding areas are in an overall Moderate Risk for Severe Weather today.  The main threats will be damaging winds, possible tornadoes and hail.  Thunderstorms will be organized and widespread as they move into the area from the west as a squall line.  Off of this main line is where the biggest threat for damaging straight line winds will come.  There is also a chance of any cells that get out ahead of the line to become supercells and these could cause tornadoes.  Embedded supercells within the squall line is also possible as well.

Be aware of heavy rains with the thunderstorms as well that could cause flash flooding/flood conditions.

There are already storms popping up across NJ coming out of the SSW.  These are not severe, just very strong at this time.

Models are suggesting that the main squall line will move into NJ around 6 PM this evening!

Here are the SPC Convective Outlooks for today.

Overall Risk



Tornado Risk



Wind Risk



Hail Risk



Current Radar



Modeled Radar at 6PM

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest Mesoscale Discussion from the SPC.  It only includes a small area of Eastern Northern NJ and NY including NYC (all 5 Boroughs) and parts of Long Island, CT and into Southern New England.  This is the most unstable area right now and will likely be a Tornado Watch issued soon.

There has already been a Tornado Warning the NYC Area from a cell that cross Ocean & Monmouth Counties and the Raritan Bay Area.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1927

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch until 9:30 for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic & Union Counties in NJ as well as adjacent coastal waters and for Southeastern NY, Western CT and Western MA.


Tornado Watch # 635

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion involving northwestern NJ, parts of PA, NY, MD & VA regarding Severe Thunderstorm Watch #634.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #634

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex & Warren Counties including adjacent coastal waters (Raritan Bay & Delaware Bay), as well as these areas:  Washington DC, counties in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia & West Virginia

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #636

[Pfishingruven]

Partly cloudy skies have allowed the sun to shine a good majority of this morning into this afternoon.  This will increase the instability in NJ due to daytime heating.  Winds are already gusty in areas today.  The latest model run of simulated radar conditions show the squall line moving in around 5PM, however it also shows pop up storms scattered over much of NJ anywhere from now through the main event.  The bulk of the storms and rain should move out by midnight and scattered and isolated showers and thunderstorms will come to an end mid early morning.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued an additional Tornado Watch for EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT, EXTREME WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK     NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, & VERMONT

**There has already been a tornado near Coney Island from a cell that came through Ocean County and Monmouth County and a few other Warnings posted as well.

Coney Island Tornado



Tornado Watch #637


   

[Pfishingruven]

I will continue to post updates as necessary and as I am able to...I say able to because I lose power here when a squirrel sneezes on the lines.  Hopefully, I will not lose power!

A couple other things I want to mention.  First, make sure you have some type of weather alerts available, preferably a main one and a backup to the main one.  NOAA Weather Radio, Cell phone, internet, TV, AM/FM radio even a handheld VHF with weather will do the job.  Second, if you are only in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, there is still a potential for tornadoes!  There are currently Tornado Warnings in MD, which is not in a Tornado Watch, with a likely tornado on the ground.  It can and does happen.  The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is still under a 5% risk of tornadoes.  Also, remember what I posted about straight line winds (derechos).  These can be just as damaging and deadly as a tornado.  If you are in a pre-manufactured home/trailer, make sure you know where you can seek shelter if necessary.  These types of structures are extremely dangerous in high winds.  3 people were killed yesterday in Oklahoma in a trailer when winds exceeded 75 mph with the passing of a cold front.  Lastly, BE SAFE!!

Here is the 1PM update from the SPC for the daily Convective Outlook.

There are not any major changes.  Mainly a shift in the risk area for tornadoes

[Pfishingruven]

The tornado threat for Tornado Watch #635 has increased.  This includes northeastern NJ Counties.

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1931

[fellinger]

Good info! I think we should all send you our cell phone numbers and you can text the warnings.....

[Pfishingruven]

Good info! I think we should all send you our cell phone numbers and you can text the warnings.....

There are much quicker cell phone solutions than waiting for my fat fingers to type out warnings !

 

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest radar.  Bow echo/straight line winds will move through Philadelphia and into NYC, obviously impacting NJ in between.

[Pfishingruven]

Storms really raced across PA and are already approaching the border of NJ.  NWS PHI has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris & Sussex Counties.  These storms have damaging winds with gusts over 60 mph!  1000's of power outages have also been reported.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NJC019-021-027-037-041-PAC017-082045-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-120908T2045Z/
WARREN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-BUCKS PA-
420 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BUCKS...SUSSEX...WESTERN MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN MERCER...
HUNTERDON AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF HIGH POINT TO BELVIDERE TO CLINTON TO
DOYLESTOWN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF NEWTON
TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTON TO 17
MILES WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF FELLING TREES ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWTON...LEBANON...LAMBERTVILLE AND GREAT MEADOWS BY 425 PM EDT...
  WHITE HOUSE STATION...SUSSEX...LONG VALLEY AND HACKETTSTOWN BY 430
  PM EDT...
  LAKE MOHAWK AND HAMBURG BY 435 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 7442 4072 7472 4058 7472 4051 7478
      4039 7473 4025 7520 4028 7525 4067 7500
      4084 7510 4086 7505 4092 7508 4102 7506
      4108 7497 4109 7499 4135 7476 4136 7469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 250DEG 39KT 4142 7460 4083 7498
          4061 7490 4031 7502

$$

MPD