Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Official Forecasts Archives

[Pfishingruven]

The 11AM National Hurricane Center update on Sandy has officially placed the track of the storm as making a direct hit on NJ!  Sandy rapidly intensified last night with winds topping 110 mph and a central pressure of 956 mb.  At one point this storm was a weak Category 3, a major hurricane.  The NHC lists Sandy as being a Tropical Storm with a landfall Tuesday Morning.  This is a LARGE storm.  It will likely change from a tropical system to an extratropical storm.  This might actually be worse than getting hit by a hurricane or tropical storm.  Extratropical storms will spread out their wind fields over a larger area.  So while, the strength that this storm hits NJ with is not definitive, expect a very strong storm to hit the coast.  This will include sustained winds over 75 mph with higher gusts, heavy rains, inland, flash and coastal flooding, storm surge, and beach erosion.  For the most part we can rule out snow, however some parts may see some snow on the tail end of this storm.  Low temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 30's after this storm moves out.  Expect widespread power outages as well.

The track and strength of this storm will likely change over the next few days, however, without a doubt, NJ will be in the path of this dangerous storm.  Now is the time to start making any preparations necessary.  At best we can expect a typical Nor'Easter that will bring wind, rain, flooding and beach erosion.  At worst, this could be a massive, dangerous storm that could leave more destruction than Hurricane Irene caused!

All further updates will take place in this thread.  I am expecting an Official Briefing Package from the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS PHI/Mount Holly within the next few hours.  I will update as often as possible.  Expect the media outlets to pick this up full swing today, which means the general public will begin to panic and rush around to make preparations.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN HAITI
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 964
MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Scott G.]

  THANK YOU FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ... PLEASE KEEP IT UP ... THE INTEL YOU ARE GIVING US IS VERY HELPFUL IN PREPARING FOR THIS STORM 

[Pfishingruven]

Here is something I just received from Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips of WFTS ABC Action News in Tampa, Florida.  This is the key component of this storm...

Tropical Meteorology 101: Here is why Sandy won't act like a "normal" hurricane. It will run into 50-60 knot shear zone in the next few days...even higher early next week. Shear cuts off the top of developing tropical systems and weakens them, HOWEVER, this same shear ENERGIZES non tropical storms. As Sandy transforms from a warm core (tropical) system, to a COLD core (non tropical) system as it passes over colder waters, the transformation will actually increase the wind field (Like traditional Noreasters) and strengthen it as well. So, the models won't do well with intensity or wind speed. That's where our experience helps out. Give it up for the human factor!!

[Scott G.]

Here is something I just received from Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips of WFTS ABC Action News in Tampa, Florida.  This is the key component of this storm...

Tropical Meteorology 101: Here is why Sandy won't act like a "normal" hurricane. It will run into 50-60 knot shear zone in the next few days...even higher early next week. Shear cuts off the top of developing tropical systems and weakens them, HOWEVER, this same shear ENERGIZES non tropical storms. As Sandy transforms from a warm core (tropical) system, to a COLD core (non tropical) system as it passes over colder waters, the transformation will actually increase the wind field (Like traditional Noreasters) and strengthen it as well. So, the models won't do well with intensity or wind speed. That's where our experience helps out. Give it up for the human factor!!

[Ms Fish]

THANK YOU FOR ALL THE INFORMATION ... PLEASE KEEP IT UP ... THE INTEL YOU ARE GIVING US IS VERY HELPFUL IN PREPARING FOR THIS STORM 

I agree Scott... its huge!!! You really help alot of people.... including me.   I have time to pull my boat out. At least on land he will be ok! Thanks so much for all the info and heads up! Great job...as always!!!

[Pfishingruven]

Current Briefing Package from the NWS PHI/Mount Holly Meteorologist in Charge Gary Szatkowski for Thursday October 25, 2012.

NWS PHI Briefing Package #3 Thursday October 25, 2012

[Still Running]

Can we have updates sent to our phones?

 

[Pfishingruven]

Can we have updates sent to our phones?

 

Might be the only way to get information!  I can pretty much guarantee that the first gust of wind and my power will be out.

Florida is looking real nice this weekend !

[ped579]

Good time to head to Disney World with the kids Matt.

[Pfishingruven]

Good time to head to Disney World with the kids Matt.

Isn't that the truth !!

[Pfishingruven]

The 5PM update is already out from the NHC on Hurricane Sandy.  Not much has changed.  The NHC has extended the track of Sandy and increased the intensity of the storm at landfall, to that still of a hurricane.  Regardless of Sandy's exact landfall, winds will be in the 80+mph range with much higher gusts.  Up to 8 inches of rain could fall just with this storm and tides will be running 1-2 feet higher than normal with a storm surge of several feet possible.  If this storm hits with the intensity the models are forecasting at this point in time, this will be a catastrophic storm.  Record flooding and beach erosion could occur, as well as sustained wind damage.

Be prepared!!

[Pfishingruven]

Here is an interesting compilation of every model's track on Sandy.  As you can see, most are in agreement of landfall somewhere between Long Island and Maryland, with NJ being in the bulls eye!  Regardless of where the storm actually makes landfall, we will still get the same effects when this becomes extratropical.  These models will be more accurate now, as well.  Not only because of the time period it is forecasting in, but also because how much data they are receiving.  Between Air Recon flights and twice as many weather balloons being launched 2 extra times a day, the models are getting the best data they can get!

[Reckless]

 

[Duffman]

That outgoing tide Sun AM at the Hook sure looks to be an interesting tide to fish pre-storm. 

[overbite]

I did not see this posting or I would not of stared another one. 

[ChrisL]

 http://magicseaweed.com/Casino-Pier-Surf-Report/387/
10ft surf   
There's a good  chance IBSP will be a wreck for next weekends planned gathering. 

[Kenny]

Good point Chris...

[Pfishingruven]

http://magicseaweed.com/Casino-Pier-Surf-Report/387/
10ft surf   
There's a good  chance IBSP will be a wreck for next weekends planned gathering. 

Chris, I'm seeing surf wave heights of 15+ feet and inshore wave heights of 24+ feet!!

[ChrisL]

    even more worser

[Still Running]

They say because of the path, it's going to be worse then Irene.