Winter Storm/Coastal Storm Saturday December 29, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

As I mentioned earlier today in the Weekend Weather Outlook, I am watching a possible Winter Storm/Coastal Storm/Nor'Easter for the area on Saturday.  While track, intensity and snow totals are not definite at this time, we will definitely be impacted with a storm.  Current track forecast is bring up to 4 inches of snow northwest of I95 with less than an inch south and east of there.  Some coastal areas could see more of a mix or even rain.  This storm could also bring some gustier winds, flash and river/stream flooding, and coastal flooding.

Here is the First Briefing Package from the NWS PHI

NWS PHI Briefing #1

First Call Snowfall Totals from NWS PHI

[kayak1]

well the storm last night had waves going over the new sea wall in Mantoloking onto RT 35 and the bay caused major flooding in all the towns along the Island....

It sure don't take much right now to cause flooding..... because there is nothing to hold back the water.

[Hunter 2]

Thanks.

[BigAl13]

The was alot of inland flooding yesterday as well roads like Tennant and Texas Rd where closed from flooding and there west 

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks for the report. 

[Pfishingruven]

The was alot of inland flooding yesterday as well roads like Tennant and Texas Rd where closed from flooding and there west 

The storm dropped up to 2.5 inches of rain on top of already saturated ground, causing a lot of flash flooding and small stream and river flooding.

[Pfishingruven]

The track of the storm has moved a little more south and east.  This is bringing some additional snowfall to areas south and east of the I95 corridor.  Almost all of NJ should see some type of snowfall, now.  This SHOULD be a fast moving storm that tracks will stay well off the coast.  While gustier winds are probable, there should not be the coastal flooding that was seen earlier in the week.  The timing of the storm looks like an early morning start lasting most of the day and clearing out overnight.  There are already Winter Weather Advisories for much of the state, except for some eastern counties.

NWS PHI Briefing #2

Storm Track



Snowfall Totals

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-282100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN
  SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW
  JERSEY BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
  THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHERE
SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST.

&&

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-282100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
  LITTLE RAIN MIXES IN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA, WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE
  ACCUMULATIONS SOME.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN
  NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE, THEN NORTHEASTWARD
  UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
  THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHERE
SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST.

&&

$$

GORSE

[Pfishingruven]

Radar images are already showing snow over northwestern NJ, however, I doubt any of it is making it's way to the ground.  It is going to take a few hours for the air to become moist enough to actually snow.  The track of the storm is mostly unchanged.  It looks like it will be a little more north and west, with a snow/rain line right down the I95 corridor.  Areas south and east of I95 will likely see snow to start with less than an inch of accumulation before changing over to rain.  Areas north and west of I95 could see 1-2 inches, then 2-4 inches working northwest and 4-6 inches or locally more for areas in northwestern NJ and bordering PA.  The short range, rapid update models have hinted at a slightly wetter storm in the northwestern areas and almost no snow south and east of I95.  This could change if the storm decides to track differently or slow down, but at this point there is very high confidence in the track and speed.

There is not much to worry with this storm.  This should be a typical snow event for some and rain for others.  Ocean County and parts of Burlington County still have Flood Warnings for small streams and rivers as well as flash flooding.  After dark tonight, black ice and icy road conditions could also pose a problem for most of NJ.

Be safe!!

Current Radar



Current Snowfall Totals



Current Storm Track

[Pfishingruven]

This was a rain event for most of NJ.  The system never completely phased, or came together with the other low pressure system.  This never allowed colder air to be pulled into the area from the northwest.  The Low is just off the coast to the southeast of NJ and is currently strengthening with a 994mb central pressure.  This will move off to the northeast and as the Low intensifies, winds will continue to come in from the northwest and could bring enough cold air in with the left over moisture to bring some snow showers to Central and Southern NJ.  This will probably not even accumulate and if it does we are talking about a dusting.  Icy roads and black ice are a concern as temperatures drop with the sun setting.  Be careful on the roads!

Current Surface Analysis with Radar

[Pfishingruven]

Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 20's across most of the state.  Winds will begin to pick up out of the northwest anywhere from 5-20 mph or so, depending on location, with gustier winds along the coast.  Anything that is wet or snowy will be frozen, including many of the roads.  Wind Chills will make the temperatures feel like the teens and single digit temperatures.  If you are going outside, bundle up.  Frostbite is possible.  Remember pets and any animals kept outside as well.

Be safe and stay warm!