Friday February 8, 2013 Winter Storm/Nor'Easter

[Pfishingruven]

A little early to be pinpointing anything on this storm, but the NWS PHI has already issued Weather Briefings.  Track and intensity will fluctuate through tomorrow night.  Right now, we are looking at a storm that will bring snow to northern central and northern NJ as well as PA, NY and possible blizzard conditions into New England.  Northern NJ could see 1-4 inches of snow, while southern central NJ could see a mix and south of there rain.  Coastal areas will experience erosion, winds to 40mph or so and coastal flooding.

Here is the link to the briefing.  More details to come later today and tomorrow.

NWS PHI Briefing #1

[Capt. Carl]

That damn groundhog said early spring. 

[overbite]

 

[DJ76]

I know I'm in the minority but can I at least get a plowable event so I can make some money this winter. this coating following by 40 degree temps and misty rain crap is horrible. last "winter" was bad enough, two in a row just sucks.

[Still Running]

Only 1-4 

[Hunter 2]

Thanks. I will be driving to the Poconos "Great Wolf Lodge" Sat morning with my crew ans families.

[overbite]

And again The weather people put out confusing and conflicting, predictions and information. no 2 reports on this storm are the same.
With if it does this or that, Yes weather is unpredictable but The Millions spent ine would think a better job could be done. And like this one be prepared stay aware. Do not turn your back on it as may did with other storms only to be sorry. Bill

[Pfishingruven]

And again The weather people put out confusing and conflicting, predictions and information. no 2 reports on this storm are the same.
With if it does this or that, Yes weather is unpredictable but The Millions spent ine would think a better job could be done. And like this one be prepared stay aware. Do not turn your back on it as may did with other storms only to be sorry. Bill

First off, meteorology is part science and part art.  The forecasts are only as good as the person producing them.  No two forecasts will ever be the same from two different meteorologists.  This is why I don't get wrapped up in all the details, but look at the bigger picture.  Secondly, meteorology and weather forecasts are only as good as the models that produce them.  Models 2 days out are only good to say 200 miles, even though they claim they have higher resolutions.  Winter storms and snowfall totals are the hardest to forecast...harder than tornadoes and hurricanes combined!  Yet, they have the least amount of research being done and the least amount of higher specializing meteorologists.  In a Winter Storm/Nor'Easter you have to worry about cold air, warm air, dry air, track, amount of precipitable water, etc...lots of factors.  You also have to worry about timing of two low pressure systems coming together and phasing.  If they don't phase exactly when the models say or when the meteorologist says, your forecast is a bust!  So, the difference between 12 inches and rain could be less than 200 miles, which is where the lack of accuracy in these models comes in.  ...And yes, weather is ever changing, dynamically by the minute, yet we only sample the atmosphere every 12 hours over greater than 200+ miles between many weather offices.  Unfortunately, we do not have a supercomputer built or available to handle the many Calculus algorithms that go into Physics and forecasting weather.

I post this for every storm and event.  DON'T get wrapped up in the drama.  Broadcast Meteorologists make ratings with storms like these, The Weather Channel makes ratings when there are storms.  The NWS is very conservative, but puts out the facts as they come in.  Reading and interpreting their facts is the most accurate weather forecast.

For this storm, currently Northern NJ is in the higher amounts of accumulation.  Central to southern and coastal areas could get lower amounts to nothing more than rain.  However, if this storm shifts just a few 100 miles either southeast or northwest, it is a completely different ball game!  Models ALWAYS trend much less snowier 4-6 days out, then very snowy around 2-3 days and then moderate around 1-2 days.  So far, 4-6 days said nothing, then the latest runs last night and this morning have trended snowier for the entire area, showing up to 77 inches of snow in Massachusetts.  This will never verify, but it does signal a likelihood of a bigger snow event.  By tonight, the models will paint a better picture and verification of initiation and trends can be taken into account when putting out forecasts.

I would not have started this thread if I did not see a probability and possibility of a decent snow event and Nor'Easter.  Even without snow, rain and winds could still pose a problem as well as coastal flooding.

This is definitely something to watch and be aware of!  I will, as always, keep this thread up to date, as the information I read is pertinent to the event.  I WILL NOT and NEVER have sensationalized a weather event just because TWC and various other media weather outlets do.

[overbite]

Never doughted your hard work and dedication to you posts I have learned a lot from you Postings. and never Pass it By. Thanks Bill

[Pfishingruven]

Never doughted your hard work and dedication to you posts I have learned a lot from you Postings. and never Pass it By. Thanks Bill

I know that and this was not specifically directed at you!  I just used your quote to take a couple of minutes and explain the inner workings of weather.  I am also the first to admit, that many of the forecasts and technology are not acceptable, neither is the constant fighting that goes on between the various agencies and meteorologists.  We all know our opinion on NOAA !

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI just released Briefing #2.  The threat of significant snowfall has increased for NJ, especially for Northern NJ.  The possibility and probability of 8+ inches is there for these northern areas.  The snow/rain line is still a big question, however, coastal erosion and flooding is a real threat as well.  The timing on this event looks to be later than originally thought, around Friday to Friday Evening for the main event.  The NWS will not issue Snowfall Prediction Maps until 48 hours.  This Briefing was issued due to model agreement on a snowier storm leading to higher confidence for NNJ snowfall amounts.

NWS PHI Briefing #2 Nor'Easter

[overbite]

NOAA  We were on the way off shore Sword and Tuna 3 Day trip. out of Manasquan. 10am. NOAA was saying Seas 2-4 wind SW 8 Clear, For The next 2 days  for off shore 25 -50 Miles so we left at the inlet it was 1-2 seas light wind. when we got to 45 miles seas were 15 - 20 wind whistled thru the pole guides White Caps  Hardly they were Breakers The wind from dead west. we fought that for 9 hours to get back. and hit the inlet dead On NO GPS then Loran and compass. The Coast guard Talked on and off the whole time to us. And that was not one of the worst forcast from Noaa. Ps. That forcast was still being brodcast when we out there. Made many trips out and relied on other Boat Capt's that were already on Station. and Coast Guard reports, Don't think they do that anymore. Ever spend the Day fishing out of Manasquan when the red Flag was up and the same when you got back .  Keep up the posting News 12 NJ has it over a foot for north jersey now and forcasts it to big for Central Jersey wind Mix back and forth.  Just Gased Snow Blower and ran Generator. Filled gas cans and Chevy. Got Milk Bread. Put up a batch of Beet Pickled Eggs Moday.  Glad to be retired no commitments. Stay safe and Dry. Bill

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Friday into Saturday for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer & Monmouth Counties.  A Winter Storm Watch means Winter Storm conditions are possible 24-36 hours from now.  NWS PHI is calling for 5-10 inches of snow in these areas, with 4-8 in central NJ and 2-4 for southern NJ with the highest accumulations more north.  Neighboring PA counties are also under this watch.  This is not the final call on snow.  I anticipate that total amounts will change and areas affected.  Remember that even if you are not getting snow, there will be ample rainfall on already saturated and frozen grounds causing flash flooding conditions.  Areas along the coast can expect gusty winds to gale force and gusts to 55mph, coastal beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding.

NWS NYC has also issued a Winter Storm Watch for Passaic, Essex, Bergen, Union & Hudson Counties.  These areas could see 6-12 inches of snow with western Passaic in the 10-18 inch range.  There is also a high possibility of a 1/4 inch of accumulating ice in these counties.

I will update any information as it comes in to me.  Overall summary, Winter Storm/Nor'Easter expected Friday afternoon through Saturday with snowfall across all of NJ, with increasing accumulations north and northeast.  Coastal areas will not only see snow, but Nor'Easter affects with gusty winds and blizzard like conditions.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing #3



Storm Track



Snowfall Totals





Ice Totals for Northeastern NJ

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE THURSDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR EAST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-062-071000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.130208T1800Z-130209T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
  SLEET AND RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST
  AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE POCONOS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING, THEN IT SHOULD MIX
  WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SLEET AND RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO
  NORTHWEST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
  EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY
  SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING GREATLY REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

GORSE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ002-NYZ067>070-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
  WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME
  TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ004-103>105-NYZ071-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
  DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
  WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME
  TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

[fellinger]

What do you think of the RPM model??

[Pfishingruven]

RPM model is a semi private model that you have to pay to access.  It is not public like the many other models.  It is only good to 24 hours and updates every 3 hours.  It is fairly accurate for precipitation and such.  It is used by a lot of broadcast meteorologists, however it is not usually something mentioned by the NWS.  I don't have much experience with it because I don't have paid access to it.  The WRF(Warf), the NAM, the RUC now the RAP are all short term models.  I honestly like an experimental model the HRRR, which is an enhancement of the RUC.  It is extremely accurate for all short term events and has a lot of parameters it covers.  It only goes out 15 hours and updates every hour.  This is superior for nowcasting or tracking severe weather, anticipated precipitation, etc...

HRRR

[Pfishingruven]

Here is an image of the greatest area for 2+ inches of snowfall an hour around 4PM Friday.  Any areas around this area and north could see close to that amount.  This is a very heavy snowfall.  Most snowfall is less than an inch an hour.

[BigAl13]

So what do you think in total is that 6-8" projection real

[Pfishingruven]

So what do you think in total is that 6-8" projection real

Unless there are major changes tonight into tomorrow, that is pretty realistic and on the low side.  NWS is always conservative.  They also don't like to issue forecasts and have to significantly change them every 6-12 hours so... I was surprised to see them make a call this early and off of only 2 trending runs, but meteorologically it makes sense.

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the Weather Briefing from NWS NYC

NWS NYC Winter Storm Briefing

[Mbailey33]

  Beet Pickled Eggs .  

Comming to your house to weather the storm