Friday February 8, 2013 Winter Storm/Nor'Easter

[overbite]

This one?

No Post #51 photo

[BigAl13]

Here in kenilworth it has been precipitating in one way or another since 6:20 am. theres apx 3" of covering on the ground between slush, sleet and snow temp has dropped 6 degrees since lunch and its just snow now. Good luck everyone

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS has cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Ocean and Burlington Counties and is lowering snowfall totals for any areas that have not changed over to snow yet.  I am not sure why they are being so fast on their nowcasting since we have not passed the time when rain was supposed to switch over to snow, the coastal low has intensified stronger than modeled at this point and has already partially phased with the clipper out of the upper Midwest.  However, there is a lack of cold air coming into the area at this time.  Upper Air Soundings at noon time show that there is only a small thousand foot pocket of cold air over 6300 feet in the atmosphere.  That is expected with a storm like this, though, and the cyclonic (counter-clockwise rotation) brings cold air from the northwest down into the storm.  This has yet to happen across most of the central and southern areas of NJ.  Snow has been steadily falling in NYC and Newark NJ and points north for several hours now.  The NWS has lowered snowfall totals for points south of Middlesex/Monmouth County border by 2 inches or so.  This is the big question here, whether cold air gets in, when and how much moisture is left to fall.  Areas have already picked up 2+ inches of rain, causing minor flash flooding and large amounts of pooling of water on roadways.  Winds have actually settled down under 40mph gusts, as well, as the stronger, windier side of the storm have already passed most of the Jersey Shore.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected around 2 feet above normal or a total of 7.0-7.5 total storm surge.

Like ChrisL said yesterday, we will know snowfall totals on Sunday !

[Bucktail]

Still raining here in Lacey.

[Still Running]

About  4" up here so far. Starting to come down hard now.

[Hotrod]

Anyone find the photo offensive, 

   No...

[Pfishingruven]

Snow just starting to come across the middle of the state.  This is actually the cold front that never completely phased with the coastal low and left us with mostly rain.  I am thinking most areas that did not get snow will only be in the 1-4 range tops with this.

Overall, I think this storm was a big bust!!

[Bucktail]

Just started sleeting here in the past hour.  If it continues like this it's going to be a heavy, slushy mess.  Just hope it doesn't bring down any power lines.

[overbite]

  And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound  With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather.  But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty

[Pfishingruven]

  And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound  With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather.  But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty

It was definitely not crying wolf!!  If this storm had hit and caused damage or death and people were not prepared or aware, there would be a lot of angry people.  The models and the meteorologists were spot on, minus the continual change in forecast.  The cold front was right where it should have been and the coastal low tracked where it needed to.  For NJ to get widespread accumulation that cold front needed to meet or beat the coastal low.  The cold front slowed to a crawl and the coastal low intensified rapidly and took off!  We had the moisture just not the cold air.  No one can complain about not getting 18 inches of snow, tree damage and loss of electricity!  Meanwhile, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are getting there own beating right now.

As for next weekend, yes the models have hinted at a coastal storm for the last 2 runs.  It is out in fantasy land and anyone who leads you to believe they know what is happening, probably tried to sell you a bridge to Africa too!  It is something to watch, but way to early, what I call fantasy land, and is not even worth mentioning until there is model agreement and model trend as well as atmospheric conditions that agree with the models!

[Bucktail]

Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[overbite]

  And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound  With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather.  But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty

It was definitely not crying wolf!!  If this storm had hit and caused damage or death and people were not prepared or aware, there would be a lot of angry people.  The models and the meteorologists were spot on, minus the continual change in forecast.  The cold front was right where it should have been and the coastal low tracked where it needed to.  For NJ to get widespread accumulation that cold front needed to meet or beat the coastal low.  The cold front slowed to a crawl and the coastal low intensified rapidly and took off!  We had the moisture just not the cold air.  No one can complain about not getting 18 inches of snow, tree damage and loss of electricity!  Meanwhile, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are getting there own beating right now.

As for next weekend, yes the models have hinted at a coastal storm for the last 2 runs.  It is out in fantasy land and anyone who leads you to believe they know what is happening, probably tried to sell you a bridge to Africa too!  It is something to watch, but way to early, what I call fantasy land, and is not even worth mentioning until there is model agreement and model trend as well as atmospheric conditions that agree with the models!

  In all due respect If, Woulda. Mightof, Only if. My point is to many times they are dead wrong. That leads to Dought and not giving credance to what they predict or forcast. Its Fact that many did not head or belive sandy was as bad as predicted. Or thought the damage inflected would happen. As the case for many Hurricanes, Noreasters that were predicted then passed by.or pettered out. You are a Learnered one about the weather. I only go by what I see and experance.
Do you really think all the people that stayed and were caught that it was just off guard. Most never thought it would happen or to be as bad as Predicted.  Thanks for all your time and posting it makes for good reading and study. Bill

[paul-e]

Have 1 foot now and coming down heavy in Oakland, NJ (North West Bergen County)
Good night and all be safe.

[overbite]

  Good morning from Marlboro, News 12 NJ hit the nail on the head with a 6 time revised forecast. As of 6:22am 8"  so far and flurries possible 1-2 more ??  Daughter left and got to work RT 520- 18 clear no problems . No hurry to get snowblower going,  Stay safe and pace your self no need for anyone else to have heart problems. ChrisL get We'll  Bill

[Still Running]

We ended up with about 12"

Guess it's a clean up day and get ready for the next storm on Tuesday. 

[Kenny]

Looks like 12" here.....time to dig out..

[Reel McCoy]

Ended up with 9" here in Middletown.  Heading out to start cleaning the driveway.

[ped579]

We have a wopping 41/2 inches.  Not even going to take the snow blower out for this one.

[Pfishingruven]

We got about 5-6 inches here.  I didn't go out and measure.  More than I expected!

[ped579]

We got a little over 4 here.  Went out to get rid of the snow on the driveway and it was almost gone just had to push some off to the sides.  GREAT...