Author Topic: Late Winter Coastal Storm Wednesday 3/6 - Thursday 3/7 (Read 9777 times)

Pfishingruven · « **on:** March 04, 2013, 01:50:34 AM »

I am sure you have heard the talk of this storm and if not you can hear it first here, then. Beginning late Tuesday Night into Wednesday a strong low pressure system that will track into the Atlantic Ocean will affect our region. The primary low pressure system will track from the Tennessee Valley northeast, forming a secondary low that will cross over Virginia/North Carolina area and into the ocean. This low will intensify as it heads northeast and will likely intensify quickly once over water. This storm will bring 6-12 inches of snow across the lower Mid Atlantic across parts of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware before affecting NJ.

The southern NJ and NJ Coastal areas are the main target of this storm, currently according to the forecasts. These areas could see rain and/or wet snow, 40-50mph winds with 60mph gusts, moderate to major coastal flooding and beach erosion. This storm has the potential to be a very strong Nor'Easter, the strongest to hit the area since Sandy. This is not a Sandy, in any way, however, storm surge guidance does suggest that there could be a 9 foot storm surge (4-5 feet above MHHW) across southern areas. These numbers will diminish as you travel north up the coast. Sandy Hook could see 8-8.5 foot surge (3-3.5 feet above MHHW). Wave height at the center of the storm could easily reach 28 feet with 15-18 feet along the general coastline. Depending on the strength, track, temperature and moisture, this could become a moderate snow event as well for all of NJ. Interior areas of NJ will still see rain/snow and gustier winds. So, all of NJ needs to be prepared.

Coastal flooding could really become a huge concern given the condition of the beach front and bays. This storm is still several days out and forecasts will change some before Wednesday. However, the models have been trending this storm for over a week and the forecasts are not doubting high chances of this storm affecting NJ.

I will continue to update daily or more. NWS Philadelphia has already issued a Weather Briefing and Hazardous Weather Outlook for the entire state and coastal waters.

NWS Weather Briefing #1

Storm Tracks

Wave Heights Thursday 2 AM

Pfishingruven · « **Reply #1 on:** March 04, 2013, 04:52:30 PM »

The latest information out of the NWS Philadelphia and New York City was released at 3:30 PM today. There are updated Briefings as well as Hazardous Weather Outlooks and Watches posted. There are very few changes to the forecast from yesterday. There is still not 100% model agreements, but they have backed off of record storm surges and coastal flooding, but not by much. The Official Forecast is very conservative in my opinion and compared to other meteorologists, however, track is really dictating the affects from this storm. 100 miles in either direction could make quite a difference. Currently, the first low is in the Upper Plains moving west southwest while a second low is over Kentucky. These two lows will phase as the system moves east northeast into Virginia. The low will rapidly strengthen, while moving northeast and once out over the water will rapidly intensify. The first system is currently bringing snow and blizzard conditions to the Upper Plains. Once the system phases it is forecast to bring 6-12 inches to much of the Ohio Valley, parts of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Delaware will see 3-6 inches as well.
The NWS PHI has already issued Coastal Flood Watches for all coastal areas, as well as Hazardous Weather Outlooks and numerous Marine Watches and Advisories. Current NJ forecast calls for early affects to start later Tuesday Night with the storm peaking Wednesday afternoon through the night into Thursday. Rain will mix and change back and forth between snow and a mix of rain and snow for much of Southern NJ and Coastal Areas. Snow will begin later across Western Central and Northern Areas. Total accumulations will be in the 1-2 inch range with less along the coast. Rain and snow could be heavy at times along with winds causing extremely low visibility conditions. Coastal areas will see 30-45 mph winds with gusts to 60mph with the rest of the state seeing the 30-40 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph. Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are the biggest threat from this system right now. Areas from Cape May through Sandy Hook areas will see a 7-8 foot surge, making it 2-3 feet above MHHW, along with waves 7-15 feet causing beach erosion. Small Stream flooding and areas with poor drainage could experience some flooding, as well as southern areas along the C&D Canal.

This forecast is EXTREMELY track dependent. A shift to the north could bring a much more powerful storm to the area with more snow and coastal threats, while a south or eastern track could leave us with not much too worry about. This is the official forecast from the NWS, however, I have seen forecasts from other Meteorologists showing 5-10 inches of snow across parts of NJ. I believe that those numbers are on the high side, while the NWS is being very conservative with their call.
I will update any major changes tonight, otherwise I will have an update tomorrow.