NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition April 8-12, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This week will bring very unsettled weather across the area.  There are chances of rain all week, including some thunderstorms with the greatest chances toward the end of the week on Thursday and Friday.  Warmer temperatures are on the way too.  A spread of 50's all the way into the 80's is possible across the state, with inland areas seeing the highest temperatures midweek.  Areas along the shore will see the upper 50's and even the 70's a day or two, however influence from ocean water temperatures only in the 40's will keep the temperatures slightly lower.  Low temperatures will be in the 50's and then into the 40's later in the week.  Water conditions will vary throughout the week by day and location.  In general inshore to midshore will be good through Wednesday.  On Thursday winds and seas will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels and continue through Friday.  Midshore to offshore conditions will be cautious with Small Craft Advisories starting Tuesday and remain for the rest of the week.  Water temperatures have increased several degrees and with the couple very warm days ahead, will likely bring those temperatures up even more.  Surf conditions will be normal in the 0-2 and 1-2 foot wave heights with gusty winds out of the west on Thursday and Friday.   

A look ahead to the weekend should bring high pressure with drier conditions and seasonal temperatures(50's-60's).  Water conditions could be cautious through later Sunday right now. 

A cold front over the Great Lakes will move into the Region late Sunday Night into Monday and then stall before moving northward.  A second front will then stay north of the Region on Tuesday and remain stationary into Wednesday.  A low pressure system emerging from the Rockies will move near or through the area on Friday bringing a stronger cold front through the Region.

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 20% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60's, low 70's inland
Low:   Low 50's
Sunrise: 6:30am
Sunset: 7:27pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very good
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny and mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% to chance of shower/thunderstorms during the day, 30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70's, low 80's inland
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 6:28am
Sunset: 7:28pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-   Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com-  37/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Partly sunny and mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70's, upper 70's and low 80's inland
Low:   Low 50's
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:29pm
New Moon: 5:36am

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com- 47/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of thunderstorms at night   
Temperatures
High:   Low 70’s, upper 70's inland
Low:   Upper 40's
Sunrise: 6:25am
Sunset: 7:30pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Friday
Sky:  Cloudy and then mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of showers during the day, 30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 60's, upper 60's inland
Low:   Upper 30's
Sunrise: 6:23am
Sunset: 7:31pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  48°F
Monday
Wind:   W 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:   1 foot or less
Monday Night
Wind:   S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less then 1-2 feet after midnight
Tuesday
Wind:   W 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Tuesday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots diminishing 5 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday
Wind:   S 5-10
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday Night
Wind:   S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday
Wind:   S 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  43°F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 24 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 22 to 29 knots
Seas: SSE 7 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 9 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 25 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: SSE 8 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 8 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wednesday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots becoming NW in the afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday Night
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides


 

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  42°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 18 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: SSW 8 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 27 to 37 knots
Seas: SSW 12 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: S 10 feet at 9 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

  Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

This week brings yet another abnormal week of weather to the area and across the US.  This is transitional phase from Winter Weather Patterns to Spring and Summer Patterns.  Places across the Western US are experiencing colder than normal temperatures, while areas along the East and South are experiencing above normal temperatures.  Along the border of a deep trough (jet stream) these areas are seeing Severe Weather to the south and A Winter Storm to the north.  Parts of Colorado actually had Blizzards Warnings posted and a Tornado Warning with 2 confirmed tornadoes on the ground last night.  Not too often you see this.  This pattern will continue through Friday.

For our area, today interior parts of NJ will easily see 80's degrees, while areas along to the coast and northwestern NJ will remain in the upper 60's and 70's.  Tonight will still bring a chance of isolated showers.  With higher daytime temperatures and the instability that comes with it, Wednesday and Thursday will bring a chance of Thunderstorms with a  slight chance (5%) of Severe Weather for most of NJ.  Wednesday's Temperatures will be about the same or a little warmer than today.  Thunderstorms will be scattered or isolated, but don't rule out a decent squall line or cells firing later in the day/evening.  Thursday & Friday will see lower temperatures, down into the 60's and 70's with more widespread organized rain through Friday.  These storms, with the instability, could intensify and move through the area as an organized squall line, with some individual cells embedded in the line becoming strong to severe.  This is not anything above a slight risk right now, but something just to keep in mind.

Water conditions are mostly unchanged for the week.  Currently there is a Small Craft Advisory for Sandy Hook through Little Egg Inlet.  The marine models have backed off on Thursday and Friday some with the winds and seas, however, Gale Warnings and Hazardous conditions are still possible with SCA's and Cautious Conditions at best.4

The is also an elevated threat of Fire Risks today through Friday with drier conditions and lower humidity.  Believe it or not, some western parts of NJ are at "Abnormally Dry" conditions on the drought monitor and there are not any rivers or streams in the state at risk of flooding.  In fact, some are abnormally below average.

One last thing to mention.  Many of the Delaware Bay and River Observation Stations have lost local funding.  These Stations are funded 50% Federally and 50% Locally.  The local funding is gone.  Some of the Stations Data has already been cut back, currently, with lack of certain parameters reporting.  If any of the Stations break or have issues, they will simply be "unplugged" and if funding appropriations are not found by September 1, 2013 the Stations will be shutdown.  This means no marine data or weather conditions will be obtained from them, including tidal levels.  This could pose a serious hazard for those living along these areas in the event of a moderate to major coastal storm or even an influx in rain causing any type of flooding along the Delaware.

Delaware River Ports

Severe Weather Risk Wednesday



Severe Weather Risk Thursday



NJ Drought Monitor



Middle Atlantic River Flows

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the chance of Severe Weather for tomorrow/Wednesday into Thursday.  Most of the State is under a Slight Risk/15% chance of severe thunderstorms, while extreme northern and southern locations will have only a 5% chance.  The biggest threat is from damaging winds and possible hail, however cells capable of producing tornadoes can not be ruled out.  Thunderstorms will also be accompanied by heavy rains and dangerous lightning as well.  These storms could begin "popping" up anytime in the afternoon through the evening and any cells firing outside of the area could easily organize and intensify as they move eastward.

This is only a Slight Risk.  I am not seeing any numbers right now that are extremely elevated, however the instability in the atmosphere is there and 80+ degree temperatures will add to the instability.

Update Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday

[Pfishingruven]

Not really any changes to the forecast for today.  One thing to like about the Storm Prediction Center...there forecasts are very accurate and they don't change them every 6 hours.  There is still a Slight Risk to most of NJ with the main threat damaging winds and possibly hail.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, but is even a lower risk.  Today should heat up to the mid 80's across most of the state, this will aid in the instability.  The most instability in our area looks to be setting up in Central Western NJ around Hunterdon and Mercer Counties this evening.  Below are two Simulated Radars based upon Model Data.  This would be 6PM and 7PM.  On 6PM, you can see some cells firing and moving in, in front of the main squall line out in PA.  If these verify, these would be in the most unstable areas and cells that get ahead of the line are always more intense.  Just something to be aware of as the day progresses.

Be safe!

Simulated Radar 6PM



Simulated Radar 7PM

[Pfishingruven]

Well, the heating/temperature pattern across the state is UNIQUE today.  A moderately strong easterly sea breeze has setup since early this afternoon and has continued to dominate, keeping areas along the coast from Ocean County north cooler than anticipated and out of the 80's and even the 70's in some places. With Ocean Temperatures in the mid to low 50's the breeze is actually chilly in places. Areas from Atlantic County south and inland are seeing a predominantly westerly winds, allowing temperatures to soar to near 90's with a very warm breeze, if any.  Atlantic City is at 90F and has broken the High Temperature Record of 85F by noon.

  

[Pfishingruven]

A squall line with Severe Warned Thunderstorms has formed in central PA and is making it's way ENE into NJ.  There are some weaker cells firing ahead of the line that could quickly intensify.  These cells are producing winds in excess of 58mph, heavy rains, dangerous lightning and showing some smaller size hail.

[Pfishingruven]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC037-041-102230-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0004.130410T2135Z-130410T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
535 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEWTON...
  NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
  FLATBROOKVILLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMING GROVE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLATBROOKVILLE AND MILLBROOK AROUND 545 PM EDT...
  FIVE POINTS AND CRANDON LAKES AROUND 550 PM EDT...
  NEWTON AROUND 600 PM EDT...
  ANDOVER AROUND 605 PM EDT...
  LAKE MOHAWK...OGDENSBURG AND HOPATCONG AROUND 610 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 7437 4097 7464 4092 7465 4090 7470
      4092 7473 4091 7478 4080 7485 4079 7508
      4085 7509 4085 7507 4087 7505 4098 7514
      4109 7496 4109 7499 4118 7489 4123 7487
      4132 7480 4136 7469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 286DEG 33KT 4112 7505

$$

JJM

[Pfishingruven]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC031-NYC071-102230-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0001.130410T2151Z-130410T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

* AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALDEN TO 46 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT
  JERVIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  OTISVILLE...UNIONVILLE...MIDDLETOWN...GOSHEN...MONTGOMERY...
  FLORIDA...WARWICK...CHESTER...WEST MILFORD...GREENWOOD LAKE...
  GARDNERTOWN...MONROE...NEWBURGH...HARRIMAN...NEW WINDSOR...
  BLOOMINGDALE AND RINGWOOD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7448 4159 7439 4164 7427 4160 7420
      4159 7414 4162 7412 4159 7405 4159 7396
      4159 7395 4152 7399 4145 7398 4100 7432
      4102 7443 4105 7445 4103 7450 4109 7450
      4120 7437 4135 7469 4140 7475 4149 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 269DEG 61KT 4198 7441 4087 7517

$$

NV

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC is likely to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central and Northern NJ due to instability of a stalled out front.  This instability is contributing to the severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and hail.

This is exactly what was forecast for today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0431.gif

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #431

[Pfishingruven]

Current Radar is showing a broken squall line of some strong and severe thunderstorm cells moving into NJ, moving ESE at this time.

[Pfishingruven]

Severe Warned cells within the squall line moving towards the NJ/PA border moving ESE

[Pfishingruven]

Today will continue to be cloudy and very humid with increasing chances of rain as the day progresses.  Temperatures will not get much warmer than we are currently at and some places in northern NJ have already experienced a cold front and will be lucky to make it into the mid 50's today.  After the front passes, temperatures will drop into the 50's and mid to lower 40's overnight.  By later this evening and tonight, rain chances will increase to 80% with likely widespread rain throughout the area, maybe even a thunderstorm.  Areas from southern Ocean County south may experience some strong to severe thunderstorms with a 5% chance of damaging winds.  This rain and possible thunderstorms will continue through Friday, with again a Slight Chance of Severe Weather for extreme Southern NJ.

I will have a complete Weekend Outlook today, but a quick look ahead...rain to start Saturday with decreasing chances as the day progresses and clearing skies.  Sunday will be mostly sunny and dry.  Temperatures will only be in the 50's with lows into the 30's at night.  Temperatures will not rebound until the beginning of next week.

Thursday Severe Weather Outlook



Friday Severe Weather Outlook

[Pfishingruven]

Today will continue with rain coming out of the southeast.  These are the same storms that dumped snow on the upper Midwest/Plains and caused deadly Severe Weather in the South.  Some rain could be heavy at times with some thunderstorms as well.  There is a small chance of Severe Thunderstorms causing wind damage for the southern half of the state and southwestern areas have a very slight risk of tornadoes and hail.  As the day moves forward, rain will decrease and become more scattered through tonight.  By tomorrow, rain should be moved out and skies will clear.  Gusty winds and cautious to dangerous water conditions will continue as will Small Craft Advisories through tomorrow morning.

Weekend Outlook looks mostly unchanged.  Saturday morning will likely bring patchy, but dense fog and maybe a little warmer, up into the low to mid 60's.  Sunday has no changes so far.

Be safe and enjoy the weekend!