NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition May 20-24, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Very unsettled weather pattern continuing this week.  This will bring chances of showers, rain and thunderstorms all week.  Chances are only 40% or less right now, but it still leaves the chance of scattered or isolated storms and afternoon to late evening thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be slightly above seasonable with higher humidity.  High temperatures will reach the upper 70's and low 80's all week, adding to daytime heating instability.  Lows will only be in the mid to upper 50's to low 60's all week.  Water conditions will vary by day and location this week.  Inshore waters will have cautious conditions with possible Small Craft Advisories on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday for some locations with winds around 20+ knots and seas to 5 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have cautious conditions most of the week with Small Craft Advisories likely with winds to 27+ knots and seas 7-8 feet at 7 seconds.  Water temperatures are around the same, with some areas a little colder.  Bays and rivers are still holding in the lower 60's with inshore oceans into the upper 50's and midshore to offshore at the mid 50's.  Surf conditions will be normal with 0-2 and 1-2 foot waves this week.  Westerly winds will keep the surf conditions down, however winds could gust to 20+ knots in places on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.     

The weekend, so far, looks to be good with high pressure dominating.  Saturday and Sunday should be dry with more sun than clouds and temperatures in the low to mid 70's.  Water conditions and surf conditions look good right now with moderate winds and seas on Saturday, diminishing throughout the day into Sunday with no SCA's.

A frontal boundary to our south is expected to weaken and dissipate as it remains nearly stationary through Monday while high Pressure should remain to our northeast and east.  Another frontal boundary from the north will drop into our region late Tuesday and it should lift back to the north on Wednesday and Thursday.  A cold front from the west is then expected to arrive on Friday.  High pressure will then build in for Saturday.

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon around 2PM, 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night around 10PM
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:37am
Sunset: 8:09pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Low 60's
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset: 8:09pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-   Good
Weather2Hunt.com-  43/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Low 60's
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset: 8:10pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-40% chance of showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Upper 50's
Sunrise: 5:35am
Sunset: 8:11pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 30/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:12pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  30/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  59°F
Monday
Wind:   S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm fog in the morning, Patchy fog in the afternoon
Monday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm, Areas of fog
Tuesday
Wind:   S 5 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:   1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm, Areas of fog in the morning
Tuesday Night
Wind:   E 5-10
Seas:   1 foot or less
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Night
Wind:   S 10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday
Wind:   W 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  55°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
 Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
 Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 9 seconds

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  57°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 8 seconds

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  64°F
Monday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet, Areas of fog in the morning
Monday Night
Wind:   SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots   
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 Feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 Feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  53°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 22 knots
Seas: SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: S 6 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: SSW 8 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 7 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

0
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Any leftover fog will continue to dissipate.  It appears to be confined to coastal areas and marine waters at this time.  Skies may clear some more with partly sunny conditions.  Chances of pop up scattered or isolated showers are possible, as well as some afternoon/later afternoon thunderstorms.  Highs will make it into the upper 70's to low 80's in areas that see sunshine, however areas with cloudy conditions are only likely to see low to mid 70's.  Any thunderstorm activity should end by sunset.  Fog is possible later tonight and into the morning hours.  Small Craft Advisories are in effect from Sandy Hook through Delaware, NOT including Raritan Bay or Delaware Bay.  Winds may gust to 20+ knots and seas remain around 5 feet. 

Tomorrow looks to be even more widely, scattered and isolated showers and thunderstorms with 20%-30% chance across the state.

Have a good day!  Updates as always as necessary...

Current Surface Conditions



Current Satellite, Radar & Surface



Current NJ Radar

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt, It looks like the water temps offshore will be at 70 soon.
Can you say "Mako Mania"

[Pfishingruven]

Still some dense fog in northern marine waters, including Raritan Bay/New York Harbor and Fire Island through Sandy Hook area.  These areas will clear out as the sun continues to "burn off" the fog.  Areas south of Sandy Hook have already cleared out.  Today will be a mix of sun and clouds today with a chance of scattered or isolated showers/thunderstorms later afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures inland will reach the low 80's, while along the coast will see mid to upper 70's.  Humidity will be high making the heat index in the mid to upper 80's in places.

Water conditions inshore will be good today, however winds could gust to near 20 knots and seas will remain around 4 feet and could build to near 5 feet tonight.  Midshore to Offshore is cautious with Small Craft Advisory conditions.  Surf conditions will be normal with 1-2 & 2-3 foot wave heights with a SW wind.

There is a chance of Severe Weather across the central part of the US.  If you know someone in these areas, make sure they are aware, have means of getting warnings (a Weather Radio or Cell Phone App) and know what to do in the event of severe weather/tornadoes.

Tornado Safety

Current Surface Map



Current Satellite



Today's Severe Weather Outlook

[Ms Fish]

Thanks Matt... you do some job! 
How bout those poor people that got hit by the Cat 4 ( I think that's how you say it, please correct me if I am wrong) Tornado; it was one of the biggest funnels I have ever seen. When you see the over head shots from the helicopter, of all the devastation that it left, my heart just goes out to those people. God, all those children that may have survived if that water line didn't break. The thought of it makes my stomach turn. Thoes poor familes...it's all just so horrible. The news said there was something like a 8min heads up. What good is that if you weren't listening to the news and were just driving along thinking you were headed into a storm... omg all those people and everything that was lost in a blink of a eye. May god be with them...

[Pfishingruven]

Daytime heating has caused some moderate instability and could support some strong to severe thunderstorms across most of the state.  Any likely storms are going to be isolated or scattered and could move in from west.  Northern Areas could see storms causing wind damage and hail is possible across most of the rest of the state.  Storms are already popping up across portions of New York State and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been posted for areas bordering Northern NJ.

Be safe!

Wind Threat



Hail Threat

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt... you do some job! 
How bout those poor people that got hit by the Cat 4 ( I think that's how you say it, please correct me if I am wrong) Tornado; it was one of the biggest funnels I have ever seen. When you see the over head shots from the helicopter, of all the devastation that it left, my heart just goes out to those people. God, all those children that may have survived if that water line didn't break. The thought of it makes my stomach turn. Thoes poor familes...it's all just so horrible. The news said there was something like a 8min heads up. What good is that if you weren't listening to the news and were just driving along thinking you were headed into a storm... omg all those people and everything that was lost in a blink of a eye. May god be with them...

Yeah, it is Severe Weather Season in the Central and Southern US.  The number of tornadoes this year is very low, compared to yearly averages, however the few tornadoes that have happened have been strong.  Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita Scale or EF Scale from 1-5 based on damage patterns that estimate wind speeds.  Initially, this was rated an EF4, but after today's damage surveys it was increased to an EF5.  It was not an EF5 the entire 17 mile long path, but it did intensify in the most populated area of Moore/OKC.  The damage path was 1.3 miles wide.  Hurricanes are rated on a Category 1-5 based on wind speeds as well.  EF5 tornadoes are deadly if you do not have a FEMA Standard Storm Shelter...which not many there had.  Not having a Storm Shelter in tornado alley is like not evacuating out of flood zones in a hurricane .  As for Warnings, they had the Severe Weather Outlooks 3 Days in advance of these storms, they were in a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning was issued 16 minutes before the tornado touched down and a Tornado Emergency was issued 5 minutes before!  When you live in these areas you have to have a Weather Radio or "push" cell phone app that alerts you to these Watches and Warnings.  Then you have to have a plan of escape or a safe place to go.

These tornadoes are survivable!  The science and technology is there making people aware and warning of the impending dangers.  Average warning time used to be 8 minutes...that has been doubled and tripled.  People just need to take it seriously and need to spend the money on the shelters or safe rooms!  It is sad the deaths that occur with these storms, especially all those children at school!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Here is a quick update on the current conditions and today's outlook.  It is very cloudy this morning and some dense fog in northern marine waters again from Raritan Bay out across Long Island.  These low level clouds and fog will burn off throughout the morning as the sun tries to make an appearance.  Skies will be mostly cloudy.  Temperatures will make it into the 80's again with higher humidity.  There is currently a Dense Fog Advisory for Raritan Bay and Small Craft Advisories from Sandy Hook through Delaware.  There is a stalled out front right across the center portion of the state.  North of the front, which includes northern Monmouth County into Sandy Hook there is a easterly, cool onshore breeze, however south of the boundary, winds are out of the southwest, bring a warm, humid breeze.  By this afternoon southwest winds will gust to 25 knots and seas could build to 5+ feet.  Surf conditions will be normal to moderate averaging 2-3 foot waves with waves as high as 2-4 feet with a gusty northwest wind by afternoon.

Daytime heating will lead to instability again and the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas north of I95 in a Slight Risk and the majority of the rest of the state has a 5% risk as well, except for extreme southern Cape May County.  There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms across most of the state during the late afternoon into the evening hours and even overnight.  Rain could be heavy in thunderstorms.  The rain might be a good thing and wash some of this pollen away!

Have a good day!

Current Radar, Satellite and Surface



Severe Threat Today

[Pfishingruven]

Some severe warned thunderstorms moving in form the southwest, moving northeast.  Gusty winds in excess of 58mph, heavy rain, dangerous lightning and some small hail possible if they remain severe when they get into the state.

[Pfishingruven]

Parts of Northern NJ have already seen some showers and thunderstorms this morning.  Right now, skies are partly cloudy to mostly cloudy and will continue like this all day.  There will be a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day and an 80% chance tonight.  The SPC has placed parts of central and northern NJ in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today.  The entire state actually has a chance of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail.  Extreme northwestern parts even have a chance of tornadoes.  Showers and thunderstorms could pop up all day being scattered or isolated, however by the afternoon into the evening and overnight more organized storms will be moving in. Temperatures will reach the upper 70's and maybe the 80's in some places.  There is a steady breeze with an occasional higher gust out of the northwest.

Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect from Sandy Hook through Delaware excluding Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay.  Winds will gust to 25 knots with seas 5-6 feet.  SCA's will continue overnight and are likely into Friday morning.  Surf conditions will be normal to moderate with 2-4 foot waves with some 3-5 footers possible and gusty northwest winds.  In addition, storms could pop up at anytime with dangerous winds, heavy rains, hail and deadly lightning.

I will update as needed during the day.  Be safe.  I will be working on a Memorial Day Weekend Outlook and will have it posted by tonight (most likely earlier).  Some changes from a week ago as Saturday is looking to be wet!  Have a good day.

Current Radar



Current Surface



Current Satellite



Current Severe Weather Threat

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Central and Northern NJ.  There is a 60% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued for conditions conducive for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail to form in the circled area.  This is only confirming the earlier forecasts, that current conditions and instability could support this severe weather.

Just be aware today and be safe!

SPC Mesoscale Discussion #779

[Ms Fish]

Thank you Matt!!! It's super nice that you do this for the site; everyone looks it over!!! I know I do! Speaking of which it looks like my Sat fishing trip with my bro is out,  BUT I still have Sunday and Monday, right...RIGHT!  Enjoy the weekend everyone and stay safe!!! Tight lines and Catch um up!   

[Hunter 2]

 , There goes my nude beach excursion tomorrow.

J.K    Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

, There goes my nude beach excursion tomorrow.

J.K    Thanks Matt

 

[Woodstock]

With that heavy NW forecast and4-6 footers, does that indicate what it would be in close or more towards the ~20 nautical range? What would that translate to in the 3 mile range?

[Pfishingruven]

With that heavy NW forecast and4-6 footers, does that indicate what it would be in close or more towards the ~20 nautical range? What would that translate to in the 3 mile range?

What day are you looking at and where?  The Inshore Outlooks cover the 3 mile line to technically the from the beach to 20 nm mark.  The Midshore to Offshore covers Mud Hole, Chicken Canyon out to the closest Hudson Canyon.  Almost always, the farther out you go the worse the conditions will get.  If you give me some specifics and days I can look up the data for that area and day/s .

[Pfishingruven]

Northern NJ Counties have a chance of flooding and flash flooding due to the heavy rains falling from the multiple thunderstorms crossing the area.  If you live in an area that is prone to flooding either from small streams, rivers, lakes or poor drainage make sure you keep an eye on the status of this flooding!  Here is a link to current Advisories, Watches and Warnings.

NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings 

[Woodstock]

From the national weather service Sandy Hook to Manasquan. Sunday mostly. My question is more about what the below translates into actual conditions inside three miles.  NWS will predict 4-6 ft for a heavy west wind but inside a mile is flat. Just wondering if that holds true for NW. Doesn't seem to with SW.  this thread is great by the way, Thanks for doing it.

Sat: NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely...mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat Night: NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

Sun: NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Sun Night: NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Mon: W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

[Pfishingruven]

From the national weather service Sandy Hook to Manasquan. Sunday mostly. My question is more about what the below translates into actual conditions inside three miles.  NWS will predict 4-6 ft for a heavy west wind but inside a mile is flat. Just wondering if that holds true for NW. Doesn't seem to with SW.  this thread is great by the way, Thanks for doing it.

Sat: NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely...mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat Night: NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

Sun: NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.

Sun Night: NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Mon: W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

These conditions should hold true...these waves are the result of wind, not swell.  Typically, a west wind will make seas a little flatter, but with 25 knots winds gusting to 35 knots, these will be all wind waves.  I think you are looking at 3-5 foot waves averaging closer to 3 or 4 feet with seas increasing the farther out you go. The big problem is the 4 second period...it is going to be very choppy on Sunday.  On top of that, you are looking at 20-25 knot winds with 35 knot gusts.  You have to remember too, wave heights are an average so 3-5 is the average.  You could easily see some higher waves.  I look at some slightly different location data than what the NWS puts out.  Yes, there data has to cover a large area for example from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet from the beach to 20 nm.  That's a big area to encompass.  My Manasquan Inlet data is from around the 1 mile mark or so.  The other thing to look at is the New York Harbor/Raritan Bay Data.  If that is significantly different and for the better, the conditions just outside will likely be decent as well.  For this weekend, the conditions in the bay are not looking good either.  However, from yesterday to today, Saturday is looking a little better.  This is one of those weekends where I wouldn't call it a wash until  the morning of or until the buoy data shows the winds and high seas.

Hope this makes sense.  I will try and keep up to date on the water forecasts.

 

[Ms Fish]

Soooooo no fishing Sat OR Sun now