NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition June 3-7, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

The week will start and end with chances of rain and thunderstorms.  Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look dry with only very slight chances of rain right now.  Temperatures will start off cooler after the passing of the cold front and remain in the upper 70's with lows into the mid 50's warming to the low 60's.  Water conditions will vary by day and location during the week.  Small Craft Advisories will continue through Monday for high seas.  Depending on the location of the high, this will affect water conditions this week.  Right now Tuesday and Friday could be questionable as well, but this entire forecast could change either way.  Bay and rivers temperatures are up into the upper 60's and low 60's.  Inshore waters are in the upper 50's and 60's and Midshore to Offshore are in the upper 50's.  Surf conditions look moderate on Monday with 3-4 foot waves and a 4-5 foot swell lessening during the day with moderate rip currents.  The rest of the week looks normal with 1-2 feet with a 2-3 foot swell max.  This could change with any water condition changes as well based upon this high pressure moving in.             

A slow moving cold front with a wave of low pressure forming along it will cross the region late Sunday Night and on Monday.  High pressure from central Canada will then build southeast into the area through the middle of the week.  Low pressure will form along the frontal boundary from the beginning of the week off of the coast to the southeast and move slowly northeast at the end of the week through the weekend.

The weekend looks like greater chances of rain and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will be pretty consistent into the upper 70's even low 80's with lows in the 60's.  Water conditions look good for now, but it could go the other way with cautious conditions and Small Craft Advisories.

The NHC is still watching an area moving out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida.  This will bring, at minimum, lots of tropical moisture to Florida this week and may move its way north by the weekend or next week.

This is Rip Current Safety Week.  A good review for all of us living at the shore and especially a good reminder for anyone who swims in the ocean or surf fishes.

NWS Rip Current Safety



Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  80% chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day, 30% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:20pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Low 50's
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:20pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Low 50's
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Low 60's
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of rain/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's
Low:   Low  60's
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt-  37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Monday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday
Wind:   W 5-10 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:   1 foot or less, patchy fog in the morning, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  0-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:   E 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:   NW 10-15 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:   NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knot after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  0-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  57°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  60°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 16 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday
Wind:   S 10-15 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:   0-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:   W 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:   0-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:   N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing NW 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   2-3 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:   NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:   NE 5-10 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet
Surf:   0-2 feet
Friday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:   0-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:   0-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  58°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 25 knots
Seas: S 7 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: S 6 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: N 14 to 19 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 15 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 17 to 22 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures


 
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Added Surf Conditions for all the locations (except Offshore) covered in the outlook.  Raritan Bay Surf is for Sandy Hook on the ocean side.  Also added some Weather Awareness, as this is Rip Current Awareness Week from the NWS PHI.  Always looking to change and make these even better.

Have a good week!

Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Rain and thunderstorms are covering most of the state with the rest of the areas not receiving rain right now cloudy.  Temperatures are already in the low 70's and should make it to the upper 70's by this afternoon with high humidity.  Rain and possible thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon, when skies will become mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms.  Many areas saw Flood Advisories overnight due to heavy, constant rains.  These Advisories or Warnings could be issued again at any point with heavy rains.  Flooding will consist of small streams and rivers, areas that normally flood and roadways due to flash flooding.  There is still Small Craft Advisories from Sandy Hook to Delaware for high seas.  S/SW winds are 10-15 knots with some gusts up towards 20 knots with 3-5 foot seas at 5 seconds.  Surf conditions are moderate still at 3 feet with a moderate risk of rips.

Tuesday's forecast looks unchanged right now.

Have a good day!

[fluke - u]

 ...Thanks !....

[Reel McCoy]

 

[Pfishingruven]

What a nice day across NJ and most of the Mid Atlantic.  The cold front has pushed way offshore all the way down to the Carolinas and some cooler, drier Canadian air has moved in with the high pressure.  It actually feels like a Spring day, even though we are only a few weeks from Summer.  Today will continue to be sunny, with some cloud to our west and southwest.  Temperatures are in the upper 50's and 60's across the state and will warm to the mid to upper 70's, cooler along and on the water.  Lows will make it into the low 50's tonight.  UV Index will be high today at a 8/10 or Very High.  Water conditions look good across the area with some slightly gustier winds in southern areas.  Winds are NNW at 12-16 knots with seas 3 feet at 7 seconds.  Southern areas could see winds to 20 knots and seas to 4 feet.  Midshore to Offshore has N winds 13-17 knots and seas 4 feet at 7 seconds.  Surf conditions are normal at 1-3 feet with a NW wind 10-15 knots.

Tomorrows forecast is unchanged as well, right now.

There is a chance of Severe Weather again today across Northern Texas and the Southern Plains.

The National Hurricane Center is still watching an area coming out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development.  This will likely remain a low or depression and bring some heavy rains to Florida.  It may affect us down the road into next week as the models have it tracking up along the coast bringing rains and seas 15 feet right now.  This is still a ways out so much will change.  Just keeping an eye on it right now.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

The tropical development I mentioned in the update today will begin affecting this area around the end of the week.  This area, which is right now an area of low pressure, will interact with a front coming through the area.  This will bring heavier rains around Thursday through Sunday or so.  This could cause some minor localized flooding of streams and rivers.  Widespread River flooding should not affect NJ.  The biggest threat will be flash flooding of streams and rivers and roadways and coastal areas.  Areas that are prone to flooding will be the main concerns.  NJ could see 4-5 inches of rain with locally more.  It all depends where the heavier bands of rain setup.  Eventually, the actual Low will make its way up the coast and bring some gustier winds and higher seas as well.  Waves could reach 12-15 feet and a long period swell of 10-11 feet is likely too.  Any and all of these conditions are dependent on the track of the Low.  End of the week could definitely bring cautious water and surf conditions with Small Craft Advisories.

The models are not completely picking up on the changes from this system yet.  This will be something I will watch closely.  This Low could further develop into a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm (low chances), however the area should not see more than heavy rains and some gustier winds and a slightly higher tide by maybe half a foot statewide on Friday.  This could really change depending on what happens in the GOM.  If this becomes more of an event than just some rain, I will move this to it's own thread.

Surface Map (Showing position of Low) Saturday



Satellite of Invest Area 91L



Rainfall Totals



Flash Flood Guidance 1 Hour



Flash Flood Guidance 3 Hours



Flash Flood Guidance 6 Hours



Flash Flood Guidance 12 Hours



Flash Flood Guidance By County/Inches Rain




Wave Heights Friday 8PM



Wave Period Friday 8PM



Tides for Sandy Hook & Cape May

[paul-e]

 

Glad I picked tomorrow to fish.
Hope they bite before this next storm

[Pfishingruven]

Glad I picked tomorrow to fish.
Hope they bite before this next storm

This looks like more of a rain event than anything.  I will have an update later today.  Today is another great day to fish...might even be a bit chilly this morning and at night on the water .

[Pfishingruven]

Another great Spring day.  Most areas woke up to upper 50's and 60's across the state with low humidity.  Today will continue to be mostly sunny with some high clouds here and there, dry with temps into the mid 70's  and overnight lows into the mid 50's.  Water conditions look good with a NE/NNE wind 7-10 knots and seas 2 feet at 6-8 seconds.  Winds will keep the temperatures down across the state, especially near the ocean.  Surf conditions are normal with 2 foot wave heights and a NE wind under 10 knots.  UV Index is Very High at 9/10.

Tomorrows forecast has changed and looks like the rain chances will increase later in the day and continue through Saturday.  Water conditions look unchanged, right now, but that looks like it may change.  I will have a complete update on this tropical rain event later today.

Severe Weather possible again, across parts of Northern Texas and the Southern Plains.

Enjoy the day...

 

[Pfishingruven]

The Low Pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is now up to 50% chance of tropical development.  Regardless of what it turns into at this point it will begin bringing rain to the area on Thursday Night and continue through Saturday Night.  Thursday Night will be more scattered becoming more wide spread through the overnight into Friday and Saturday.  By late Saturday, rains will again become more scattered as the system moves out.  The biggest threat from this system is heavy rains, anywhere from 2-5 inches and even more locally from rain bands.  Rain could cause localized and flash flooding.  Tidal and coastal flooding do not look like a problem right now.  Tides will run from 0.5-1.0 feet higher, which is still lower than an High Astronomical Tides.  Along the coast and even inland could see some gustier NE winds to 20 knots maybe an occasionally stronger gust.  The models are not really forecasting this system yet, but water conditions will likely be cautious with Small Craft Advisories for NE winds to 25 knots and seas to 8 feet with a long period swell of 10-12 seconds.  Surf conditions will be moderate to elevated with rough surf conditions and waves to 6 feet with gusty NE winds.

This will likely be a non-event for most!  Just some heavy rains!  Things can change quickly and I will keep updated on this.

Enjoy the good weather while we have it today.

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center has issued "Significant River Flooding Possible."  This is the first alert on a three tiered step involving River Flooding. Currently there are no rivers in NJ that are monitored by the NWS that are near flood stage.

[Reel McCoy]

I took off Friday to go fishing 

[Pfishingruven]

I took off Friday to go fishing 

Don't write it off yet...inshore and bays may get nothing more than rain!

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

Patchy fog across portions of the state this morning that should clear out within a couple of hours.  Today will be mostly cloudy with low to mid 70's and lows tonight only into the low 60's with more humid air than we have had the last couple of days.  Showers will move in tonight sometime after 11PM or so and it will be wet through Saturday Night.  Water conditions are good this morning with SE winds 5-10 knots and seas 2 feet at 7 seconds.  This could increase to cautious, but still under SCA criteria by afternoon with SE winds increasing to just under 20 knots in some places and seas building to 3 feet at 4 seconds.  Surf conditions are moderate today waves 2-3 feet and moderate risk for rip currents.  Winds out of the SE at 8-12 knots and a UV Index Very High at 9/10.

I will do a complete update on Tropical Storm Andrea here Tropical Storm Andreahttp://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=31704.msg275991#new later this morning.  Only major changes I am seeing is an increase in the total precipitation forecast increasing to over 4 inches for some places.

Severe Weather across parts of Texas and also Florida (as a result of the tropical storm).

Have a good day

[Pfishingruven]

There are some clouds and scattered showers making their way into the area, especially across northwestern NJ.  This is from the stalled out frontal boundary to our west and a lifting warm front from the south.  This is not specifically from TS Andrea, however a lot of the moisture is streaming from the Gulf.  These showers will become more widely scattered and then widespread across the state as the day goes on.  Winds are picking up some ahead of the showers as well, with a few gusts around the 20 knot mark.  This is the beginning of a few wet days!

[Pfishingruven]

Most of the state is covered in moderate rains with pockets of heavy rains this morning.  Rain moved in last night around 9:30 and has been mostly constant all night.  I had 0.23 inches of rain during the overnight and last night was only the preview.  Today, rains will continue and become heavy.  Effects of the tropical storm will start being felt from the south to the north.  Winds will increase and heavy rains could be accompanied by thunderstorms.  Temperatures will only be in the upper 60's to low 70's with lows down into the 60's tonight.  These storms have spawned many water spouts and tornadoes, however we are not currently in any risk area for these.  I will keep a close watch for this and those along the coast should be alert to this.  Small Craft Advisories are in effect for SE winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 35 knots and seas building from 3-5 feet to 5-8 feet.  Offshore has a Gale Warning with winds to 47 knots and seas 10-12 feet.  Surf conditions will be high today and dangerous with 4-6 foot waves, SE winds to 35 knots, dangerous rip currents, some beach erosion, and storms with possible lightning. The good things is, the UV Index is Low at 1/10  .

Conditions will deteriorate as the day progresses.  Flash flooding and River Flooding could occur at any point between now and Sunday.  Flash flooding is more likely today through tomorrow with River Flooding beginning Saturday into Sunday.  I will have a complete update on TS Andrea looking at all of the threats later this morning.  For now, stay dry and be safe!