NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Jun 8-9, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This is going to be an iffy weekend with moderate to lower chances of rain/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.  Saturday rain chances will be scattered and will depend on the timing of the remnants of the tropical storm moving off to the northeast.  Rain chances will still remain Saturday.  Sunday could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms chances in the afternoon and later day.  High temperatures will be in the low 80's all weekend.  Lows will only drop down to the mid 60's both nights.  Water conditions on Saturday will be cautious to hazardous with Small Craft Advisories through the mid afternoon.  After mid-afternoon SCA's could linger until winds and seas subside.  Winds could still gust 35 knots and seas 5-7 feet.  As soon as the Low gets north and east of the area, water conditions should return to normal.  Sunday's water conditions should be good with NW winds to 13 knots and seas to 6 feet at 8 seconds subsiding throughout the day even more.  Water temperatures are up in the 60's for all locations and pushing the 70's for Delaware Bay & River.  Surf conditions on Saturday will start out elevated with rough surf, moderate to high rip current risk with 4-6 foot wave heights and NE winds to 35 knots subsiding over the day to 2-4 feet and 15 knot winds.  On Sunday waves will be moderate to normal with moderate to low rip current risk at 2-4 feet and NW/WNW winds up to 15 knots.  UV Index very high at 9/10 on Saturday and 8/10 on Sunday.  

There is severe weather possible across the upper plains on Saturday again!

For Tropical Storm Andrea information see this thread Tropical Storm Andrea

There is additional activity in the tropics with an area being watched for development that has come off of Cape Verde and approaching the Antilles.

A warm front will stall across the area before moving northeast with the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea.  Weak High Pressure will move into the region Sunday.

A look ahead to next week will bring rain chances through Tuesday Night with an unsettled weather pattern starting the week.  Wednesday through Friday are looking dry right now.  Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 80's again.  Water conditions for Northern Inshore areas look good all week with the exception of Monday.  Southern Areas could have a rough week every day next week as could Midshore to Offshore Areas.  Something to watch over the upcoming days.  Surf conditions look OK, with winds staying out of the west predominantly keeping surf conditions down for the most part.  Until the timing of this tropical system gets out of the way it is hard to plan out next week already!

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  60% showers/thunderstorms during the day, 20% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:23pm
New Moon: 11:58am

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 47/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's
Low:   Mid 60's
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:24pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-   Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com-  47/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Severe Weather Risk Saturday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 61°F
Saturday
Wind:   W 5-10 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-4 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-4 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  60°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 fee
Sunday Morning
Winds: W 3 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides


 

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  63°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: W 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  71°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots becoming SE 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  61°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: SSE 14 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 9 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: S 6 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures


   
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The bulk of Andrea is northeast of the area.  Most areas across NJ saw 2-5 inches of rain.  I had 3.35 inches here in Toms River since 7 AM yesterday.  The tail end with some lingering clouds and showers may move quickly through our area later this afternoon.  Skies are mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun.  Clouds will continue to clear throughout the day.  There is a low chance of some scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms all day.  That chance will be gone by tonight.  Temperatures will make it into the upper 70's maybe low 80's with more humid air.  Lows only into the mid 60's. There are still active Flood Warnings for some areas across the state all related to River and small stream flooding.  Most rivers will not crest until this afternoon through Sunday.  There are still Small Craft Advisories for all Inshore Ocean Waters through tonight and Gale Warnings for Midshore to Offshore Waters.  Small Craft Advisories for New York Harbor, Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay/River have been canceled.  Ocean waters are cautious still looking at W/SW winds 15-20 knots subsiding to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 25 knots.  Seas are 6-9 feet subsiding  4-6 feet by afternoon with a 7-11 second period.  Both winds and seas will increasingly improve as the day moves on.  Surf conditions are still high with a high risk of rip currents.  Wave heights 5-6 feet with a W wind at 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.  Again, these conditions will improve throughout the day.  UV Index Very High at 8/10.

The models do not handle tropical weather very well and were really on the low side comparing forecast values to actually buoy data.  Be careful looking at your forecast software for today and tomorrow.  Looking at the conditions first hand is probably the best option this weekend.  The Outlook above reflects both forecasts generated by a MET at the NWS and current buoy data.

Tomorrow during the day/afternoon is looking dry and mostly sunny, however there is a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the evening into the overnight.  Highs will reach the low 80's lows into the mid 60's with some moderately humid air.  Water conditions look good Inshore and Midshore to Offshore.  There could still be some residual higher seas and long period swell tomorrow, however winds should be gone and SCA's will likely be dropped?  So far the forecast in the Outlook are looking good.  The same goes for surf conditions.  I will keep a look out on the forecast for tomorrow throughout today.

Continue to be alert for River Flooding if you live near any Rivers or Small Streams in NJ.

Enjoy the day and weekend!  I will be "out of the office" for most of today, but all of my weather capabilities are mobile!

Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Some clouds across the state today with mostly sunny conditions.  It will be dry through tonight.  Highs will be in the low 80's with higher humidity.  Tonight there is a chance of scattered or isolated showers or thunderstorms with lows into the mid 60's.  There is still at Flood Warning for the Millstone River, however all other Advisories, Watches and Warnings have expired or been canceled for NJ.  Water conditions are good everywhere today with NW winds to 10 knots shifting to the south this afternoon and seas 2-4 feet at 8-10 seconds.  Surf conditions are moderate with moderate risk of rip currents.  Waves to 3 feet and winds NW around 5 knots with ocassional gust to 10 knots.  Winds will shift to the south this afternoon.  UV Index Very High at 9/10.

Monday looks to be wet with rain and thunderstorms likely all day.  Water conditions look good except for Southern Areas and Midshore to Offshore in the afternoon could see some cautious conditions possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels.  Surf conditions will be normal to moderate.

I will have a full week outlook later this evening.

Have a good day!

[fluke - u]

 ..Thanks for your work as always....