The afternoon update from the Storm Prediction Center is out. The squall line of storms that moved offshore today "stole" a lot of the energy and instability from the atmosphere. This is a good thing, however it also means a bad forecast
. The Convective Outlook has moved the Moderate Risk south into North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Southern NJ is still in a Slight Risk with the rest of the state being in a Generalized Risk for severe weather. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, with some sun. This sun could be a bad thing leading to more instability. There is still a risk of scattered or isolated severe thunderstorms statewide, especially in Southern NJ. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are still possible later this afternoon through the overnight with heavy rains causing flooding conditions. Any severe storms could cause damaging winds, hail, possible tornadoes, dangerous lightning and heavy rains. This reduction in the Risk for the day is a good thing, as widespread severe weather is not likely. However, it also means there will not likely be any Watches issued and any storms that are able to initiate, intensify and spin up will become immediately Warned! So, still be alert, however chances are much lower than anticipated and showing just a couple hours ago!
Water conditions will not improve until the Low moves far enough off to the northeast. This should happen sometime on Friday. Depending when it moves off, will determine how quickly conditions improve. Friday later afternoon to tomorrow night is beginning to look better.
Severe Weather Risk
Current Conditions
Forecast Radar at 6PM & 7PM
Model Severe Weather DataCAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures how much unstable energy is available enhanced by daytime heating
Energy Helicity Index is a composite model of CAPE and Helicity
Helicity is how much spin is in the atmosphere
Lifted Index is a measurement of how unstable air is by determining how much air is rising
