Severe Weather Wednesday - Thursday

[Pfishingruven]

Wednesday Night

Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rains and possible tornadoes could affect parts of Southern NJ overnight into Thursday.  This is likely a widespread, long track thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds and hail.  Similar to the derecho from last year.  A derecho is not a forecast storm, but a label applied to a thunderstorm that meets the criteria after the event!

Surface Map



Severe Weather Risk









Thursday

Storms from Wednesday Night will continue over into Thursday.  Thursday has a risk of substantial and widespread severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for the southern half of the state and a Slight Risk for the northern half.  Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  Northern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, into central and eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey will also have the highest risk for tornadoes!  A severe thunderstorm means a minimum of 58 mph winds and/or 1/2 inch hail.  Severe Weather Models show very high numbers throughout the day on Thursday with the biggest threat from the afternoon into the later evening.  Significant Tornado Parameters are showing numbers approaching the 7-10 range out of 10 between 2PM and 5PM.  Of course straight line winds can be just as and more damaging as a tornado.  Damaging Wind safety is the same as tornado safety.  Expect downed trees, power outages and minor to moderate flooding, as well as dangerous flash flooding!

Thursday's high temperatures will  be in the upper 70's inland with upper 60's to low 70's along/on the water and lows in the upper 50's.  1-3 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts are possible from Wednesday through Friday with the bulk of this rain falling on Thursday.  Any additional rains could cause flooding conditions, including River and Flash Flooding.  A Flood Watch has been issued for 13 Counties from Thursday Morning through Thursday Night.  Flood Watches will likely be extended to more areas and Flood Warnings are likely tomorrow during the day.  Friday will start with showers and thunderstorms before clearing out in the later afternoon into the overnight.  Again Friday's temperatures will only be in the mid 70's with upper 60's to low 70's along/on the water with lows in the upper 50's.

Inshore water conditions for Thursday will become cautious in the afternoon  and hazardous into the overnight with Small Craft Advisories.  Winds will increase 36+ knots with gusts to 40 knots and seas to 8 feet at 7 seconds.  Winds and seas within thunderstorms will be higher.  Offshore conditions will remain cautious and increase to hazardous into Friday with winds to 42+ knots and gusts to 50 knots with seas to 14 feet at 7 seconds.  Conditions will improve into Saturday.  Surf conditions will be Moderate on Thursday with 3-4 foot waves and winds to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots changing from the SE to the SW.  Friday will have High conditions with waves 4-6 feet and NW winds to 35 knots.  Being on a boat tomorrow or out on the beach during severe weather will be extremely dangerous.

This Outlook is not meant to scare anyone, however atmospheric conditions are looking to be very unstable and conducive to severe weather!  I cannot recall in the last several years having a Moderate Risk with a 45% thatched area (increases risk to 10% chance within 25 miles) across NJ.  Tomorrow is not the day to gamble that the weatherman is wrong, however it is also not a day to panic and worry.  Simply, have a plan, be prepared, be aware and alert to changing conditions, keep an eye to the sky and an ear to warnings and be ready to execute any of your plans quickly.  This should be familiar to most of you being boaters.  You always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


The good news is that the weather and water conditions look to improve for the weekend with dry and seasonable conditions.  I will have more on that tomorrow.

Be safe!

Surface Maps





Severe Weather Risk





Significant Tornado Parameter 2 PM & 5 PM





Precipitation



Links

New Jersey Advisories, Watches & Warnings

National Weather Service Philadelphia

National Weather Service New York City

Storm Prediction Center

Storm Preparedness

Tornado Safety

Derecho Facts

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

NWS NYC Briefing #1

[paul-e]

This s#%T is getting old.

[Reel McCoy]

 

[Reckless]

     

[Still Running]

This s#%T is getting old.

  We are going to need a boat soon. 

[Bucktail]

Getting right on that Rick.

[Still Running]

Wow Bob, your a jack of all trades. You can build an ark and make paul-e jigs.

[ped579]

Bob did you get all the necessary permits to build that thing???

[Pfishingruven]

If you live near a river that floods, please click on the link to the Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center and go to the NJ inset and mouse over the yellow, orange and red dots to see minor and moderate flood forecasts.  Some areas could see 2 or more feet of flooding.

MARFC

[fellinger]

I have cancelled a class based on these forecasts...

Ugh! When will it end!? 

[ChrisL]

Have a feeling it's gonna be a busy and wet day at work tomorrow.  Packing extra clothes.   

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing #2

[Hotrod]

 

[Pfishingruven]

The Convective Outlook today has not changed much!  The bullseye for Moderate Risk has shifted south some, leaving only parts of southern NJ in it.  The rest of the state is in a Slight Risk and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rains and possible tornadoes.

Currently there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the southern 3/4's of NJ.  A strong line of thunderstorms that started in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will move into the area this morning.  These storms have created widespread damaging winds in excess of 85 mph with hail and tornadoes.  These storms have weakened some and we will only be getting the northern portion of these storms.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #304



There is still an active Flood Watch and Marine Advisories for all coastal waters.

Be safe!

[Reefsquatter]

Just looked at the weather on the MyRadar free app, it is gonna be ugly especially in South Jersey.

[Pfishingruven]

This is only the beginning!

[Pfishingruven]

I am not going to be able to keep up with every Advisory, Watch & Warning today.  I will try my best, but you can always check this link for updates.  However, you should not rely on the link for Immediate Broadcast Warnings.

NJ Advisory, Watches & Warnings

[Bucktail]

It's getting progressively darker here.  Starting to hear the rumble of thunder as well.