Tropical Storm Chantal

[Pfishingruven]

I want to put this up so you get the information you need here.  Please don't buy into the Tropical Storm/Hurricane hype already started for the East Coast and Florida! I have heard the words "perfect storm," "storm of the century" and "worse than Sandy" circulating the internet and FB and I am sure many of you have as well. This is way too early in the game to start predicting where Tropical Storm ‎Chantal will be in 7-10 days! Right now, we have a minimal Tropical Storm with 40 mph winds and 1008 mb central pressure. This is mostly estimated, as Aircraft Recon has not flown yet, but is scheduled for tomorrow. The NHC Track brings it up the east side of Florida, but has is weakening by that point as do many of the models as well.  It looks like conditions will become unfavorable for any strengthening around Cuba.  In fact, conditions may really break it apart with westerly winds and land interaction.  Another scenario is that the Bermuda High we all know now, will really retrograde and block the storm pushing it up the West Coast of Florida.  All of this is really up in the air. 

I will keep updated with this and I will update this thread as needed.  Something to note...make sure you know your weather resources.  There are NO LAWS governing who can or cannot put out forecasts.  The internet and social media has created a wonderful platform for weather enthusiasts and those without degrees in meteorology or a related field to put out their own opinions on weather events.  Severe Weather, Tropical Weather and Winter Storms bring out the best and everyone wants to forecast.  Here at NJSWF, I AM NOT forecasting.  I am simply looking over all of the forecasts and data and providing a summary without all of the meteorology jargon and shorthand!  I compile everything into a written summary with graphics...your one stop for all weather needs.  For this event, all forecasts and tracks will come from the National Hurricane Center!

Thanks,
Matt



National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Chantal Satellite



NHC Official Track TS Chantal

[FinItalia]

 

[Hotrod]

 

[IrishAyes]

You do an excellent job of keeping us informed Matt. Continue the good work.

As far as forecasts, here's mine...100% chance of fishing today. And now I'm off to the boat. 

[fluke - u]

 ...Thanks for all that info Matt....

[Takes Prizoners]

you know those weathermen. there is a 50% chance of 12" of snow with this storm. lol

[Capt. Carl]

Matt....bring us some nice weather for once will ya?

[fellinger]

Matt:

You do a great jop. I rely heavily upon your reports.

Would you consider running a small "how to read the weather" class? Maybe focus on looking at the charts, forecasts, etc?

[Pfishingruven]

You are welcome as always!

You do an excellent job of keeping us informed Matt. Continue the good work.

As far as forecasts, here's mine...100% chance of fishing today. And now I'm off to the boat.  

My type of forecast

Matt....bring us some nice weather for once will ya?

I'm trying Capt Carl... I'm sick of this weather too !

Matt:

You do a great jop. I rely heavily upon your reports.

Would you consider running a small "how to read the weather" class? Maybe focus on looking at the charts, forecasts, etc?

Fred,

I would be more than happy to either by post, online class, in person,  etc. ..

I also have an email out to the Met In Charge at the NWS in Mount Holly to see if there is a webinar or online class or even if they will have one of their lead Marine Forecasters do a small class.  He had been on vacation and blacked out for the last 2 weeks,  so when he gets back I am hoping for an answer. If not,  I will hunt him down.

Either way something can be put together. There are lots of options...

[fellinger]

You are welcome as always!

You do an excellent job of keeping us informed Matt. Continue the good work.

As far as forecasts, here's mine...100% chance of fishing today. And now I'm off to the boat.  

My type of forecast

Matt....bring us some nice weather for once will ya?

I'm trying Capt Carl... I'm sick of this weather too !

Matt:

You do a great jop. I rely heavily upon your reports.

Would you consider running a small "how to read the weather" class? Maybe focus on looking at the charts, forecasts, etc?

Fred,

I would be more than happy to either by post, online class, in person,  etc. ..

I also have an email out to the Met In Charge at the NWS in Mount Holly to see if there is a webinar or online class or even if they will have one of their lead Marine Forecasters do a small class.  He had been on vacation and blacked out for the last 2 weeks,  so when he gets back I am hoping for an answer. If not,  I will hunt him down.

Either way something can be put together. There are lots of options...

Awesome! There is just a ton of info to sift through and then decide if fishing is doable.... temps, winds, currents, blah blah blah. Personally I would be looking for something to become a little more confident in helping me make a descision to venture to the midshore grounds.

[ped579]

Matt when you talk to the Met in Charge ask if they will be willing to put together a "SHYWARN" class for the guys on here.  I know they are not hams but they are out and about most of the time and have availability to cell phones.

I have been thinking about going through one my self.

Happy Catching

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

Matt when you talk to the Met in Charge ask if they will be willing to put together a "SHYWARN" class for the guys on here.  I know they are not hams but they are out and about most of the time and have availability to cell phones.

I have been thinking about going through one my self.

Happy Catching

Paul

Yeah,  that's a good idea. I have my Skywarn Class and it gives a good,  basic understanding of weather and dangerous weather conditions. They offer them online now so I would guess if we could give them an audience it would good and they could expand it into some Marine weather.

I will give Gary a couple days to catch up before I chars him down .

[ped579]

I know that Larry Nierenberg larry.nierenberg@noaa.gov
gives a webinar, you might ask him as well.

[ped579]

I knew both of these guys when I was in Emergency Management back in the day.  It seems so long ago already.

Ocean County used my call for a while when I was Communications Coordinator for OCOEM.

[fellinger]

If you need a host site we could use my training center right outside of Trenton. I know it's a long shot for some but if its the only location it may just work.

[Pfishingruven]

I know that Larry Nierenberg larry.nierenberg@noaa.gov
gives a webinar, you might ask him as well.

Larry gave my class and I know Greg Heavener does a lot of them as well.  I will see if I can get Gary and go down the chain from there.

If you need a host site we could use my training center right outside of Trenton. I know it's a long shot for some but if its the only location it may just work.

Thanks Fred...I will keep that in mind!  Let me see where I get with the NWS and whether or not they are willing to put something or anything together.  I know they are dealing with a lot of budget cuts and furloughs as well.  I can go from there and reach out to some other contacts if they fall through.  We will definitely get something put together for anyone interested, I will guarantee that .

[Pfishingruven]

There are not many changes with TS Chantal tonight.  There has been some strengthening overnight and today to 50 mph.  It is still moving WNW at 26 mph with pressure increasing to 1010 mb.  It is still forecast to strengthen more and then weaken as it closes in on Southern Florida.  There is not much else to report.  Just something to keep watching and see how it interacts with the high, an upper level low and trough along the East Coast.  One thing that is definitely possible and probable at this point is more rains causing flooding conditions along the East Coast sometime next week.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 55.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

[Pfishingruven]

There are not much changes with Tropical Storm Chantal so far this morning.  Aircraft Recon is currently in the process of gathering data from inside the storm.  It looks like there was some strengthening overnight (most tropical systems strengthen overnight and weaken throughout the day).  The track has been extended up the east coast of Florida and the forecast has now extended Tropical Storm status through the 5 day track, whereas last night they had the system weakening by Southern Florida.  They have also increased the overall max winds to 70 mph for this system, although it looks like it may be over-performing already!  The only thing working against this system right now is the forward motion at 26 mph, which is almost double the speed of a tropical system.  Model tracks are bringing a Tropical Storm into Northern Florida or Georgia for a land fall right now, but these are only models not forecasts!

Again, this is too soon to pinpoint any or what type of involvement this storm may have for our area.  It does look like the moisture will make its way to us one way or another bringing rains and flooding conditions at minimum, but even that is too far out to really forecast beyond speculation!

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 59.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[Pfishingruven]

Tropical Storm continues to race to the west at 29 mph.  This is the main reason the storm has not undergone any major strengthening.  Yesterday winds were higher up to 65 mph, however the storm does not look very organized or developed.  It looks like it is just being swept along by very fast moving steering winds.  The NHC still says that it will go to the east of Florida and make landfall in Georgia.  It will likely weaken into a depression and then maybe gather some strength back into a Tropical Storm before making landfall.  However, the models have begun to shift to the west with the track.  A west shift could put this in the Gulf of Mexico which would certainly allow for more strengthening and an entirely different game for Gulf Coast States.  This means no direct coastal involvement for us, however it will make its way to us at some point as either a depression or remnants definitely bringing rain to the area.  Gusty winds and thunderstorms are possible as well, but this is too soon to really speculate on that.  We are looking at sometime next week in the beginning to mid week.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

[fellinger]

Great info as always!

What do you think tomorrow will bring? I want to fish if possible!!!!