NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Week Edition: July 15-19, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

High pressure will dominate this week bringing a pretty settled and stable weather pattern, high temperatures and high humidity.  With a southerly flow heat and humidity will be pumped into the area from the south bring the hottest and longest heat wave this Summer.  Beyond the extreme heat, humidity and heat indices, weather and water conditions will be nice.  Conditions will be mostly sunny and clear all week with clouds building in during the afternoon and evening and very low chances of some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms only due to the heat and humidity.  There is a chance of severe weather as well, most likely toward the end of the week or over the weekend.  High temperatures inland will be in the mid 90’s with heat indices in the upper 90’s and 100’s.  High temperatures along/on the water will not be much better with mid to upper 80’s.  Lows will only be in the low to mid 70’s with very muggy overnight conditions.  Heat Advisories, Watches and Warnings will be likely during the week and have already been posted for western and northern counties, especially around urban areas.  It is definitely an AC week and remember the heat affects the young, the elderly and anyone with health conditions more quickly.  Remember the animals as well!  Keep hydrated, stay out of the direct sunlight and take breaks if you are out in these conditions.  Water conditions are rated good this week for all locations with maybe some gustier winds and elevated seas on Friday Afternoon into the overnight, possibly meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria.  Despite high pressure and a southerly flow, the placement of the High looks like it gives us a bit of a break from direct southerly/southwesterly flow with varying wind directions most of the week.  Surf and beach conditions look good all week with Low Risks of rip currents, calmer winds and calm surf with normal wave heights through Thursday.  Friday could see some gustier winds, rougher surf and higher waves causing a Moderate Risk of rip currents.  UV Index will be Very High all week.

High Pressure centered off the DELMARVA Coast this afternoon will build westward and will spread inland over the next few days and become centered over the Ohio Valley through Wednesday before sinking southward.  The high will continue to influence the region through Friday bringing a hot and humid airmass into the region.  A frontal boundary may arrive from the northwest by the weekend.

The weekend will likely be unsettled and transitional again, but even that does not look terrible right now.  Temperatures and humidity will be slightly lower after the front passes through which will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Water conditions are not looking the best right now, with conditions bordering on cautious and SCA criteria for both days.  Surf and beach conditions look good as well with maybe some gustier winds and some elevated waves.  This is still a ways out and by midweek, will have a better idea.

The tropics are quiet once again!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly clear, patchy fog in the early morning
Precipitation:  20% chance isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Mid 90’s inland with heat indices near 100, mid to upper 80's along/on the water with heat indices in the upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70's
UV Index:  High 9/15
Sunrise: 5:40am
Sunset: 8:24pm
First Qtr: 11:20pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Excellent
Weather2Hunt – 37/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90's inland with heat indices around 100, mid to upper 80's along/on the water with heat indices in the upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:41am
Sunset: 8:24pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Excellent
Weather2Hunt – 33/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90's inland with heat indices around 100, mid to upper 80's along/on the water with heat indices in the upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:23pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Excellent
Weather2Hunt – 40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90's inland with heat indices around 100, mid to upper 80's along/on the water with heat indices in the upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:23pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Excellent
Weather2Hunt – 40/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90's inland with heat indices around 100, mid to upper 80's along/on the water with heat indices in the upper 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:43am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt – 40/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  73F
Monday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog in the morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  80-85°F
Monday
Wind:  WNW 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog in the morning
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  N 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable around 5 knots becoming SW 5-8 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet subsiding 1 foot or less, Patchy fog in the morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10
Seas:  0-1 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 8 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  WSW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fellinger]

Great information as always!

About staying hydrated... Here is a good graphic about urination as a sign of hydration status.

[ped579]

Man this wind direction is going to kill me with the flies.  I need something with an "E" in it.

Happy Catching

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

Man this wind direction is going to kill me with the flies.  I need something with an "E" in it.

Happy Catching

Paul

There may be some mornings and afternoons at the beach where the sea breezes overpower the predominant winds for two reasons.  First the winds are variable and calm at 5 mph or less this week that there will be little to no wind and secondly because of the difference in temperature from the ocean to the land (including the beach) that temperature gradients and thermally forced winds will overpower the normal wind flow and give you an east or southeast sea breeze.

Here's to hoping at least!

 

[Pfishingruven]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
520 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...HEAT INFORMATION AND PRECAUTIONS IN PREPARATION FOR THIS WEEKS EXPECTED 6 TO 7 DAY HEAT WAVE...

LAST YEAR /2012/...THERE WERE 155 HEAT RELATED FATALITIES NATIONALLY...WELL ABOVE THE 10 YEAR NATIONWIDE AVERAGE OF 119 DEATHS. HEAT WAS THE SINGLE GREATEST WEATHER RELATED HAZARD...KILLING MORE THAN TORNADOES...HURRICANES...LIGHTNING AND FLOOD COMBINED. PENNSYLVANIA HAD 17 OF THESE HEAT RELATED DEATHS...THIRD ONLY TO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  MARYLAND HAD 4 HEAT RELATED DEATHS...NEW
JERSEY 1 AND THE STATE OF DELAWARE NONE.

IN 2012...THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE TO BE WAS IN AN ESSENTIALLY NON AIR CONDITIONED HOME...WHERE MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE FATALITIES OCCURRED.

EXTREME HEAT HAS ITS GREATEST ADVERSE IMPACT ON THOSE OF US OVER 50...ACCOUNTING FOR ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE DEATHS.

ACCORDING TO NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, HEAT STROKE IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF NON-CRASH VEHICLE DEATHS FOR CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 14. THEY DOCUMENT AT LEAST 27 DEATHS PER YEAR.  A
PEDIATRIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE PHYSICIAN AT CHILDRENS NATIONAL MEDICAL CENTER IN WASHINGTON STATED THAT THE BODIES OF INFANTS AND CHILDREN HEAT UP THREE TO FIVE TIMES FASTER THAN THOSE OF ADULTS.


WHAT TO DO...

FIRST AND FOREMOST....NEVER EVER LEAVE ANYONE INSIDE A PARKED CAR. THAT INCLUDES CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PETS. NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES THAT EVEN WHEN ITS ONLY 80 DEGREES OUTSIDE, IT CAN TAKE JUST TWO MINUTES FOR THE INSIDE OF YOUR CAR TO HEAT UP TO 123 DEGREES.

MAKE A HABIT OF LOOKING IN YOUR VEHICLE...FRONT AND BACK...BEFORE LOCKING THE DOOR AND WALKING AWAY.  CHILDREN HAVE DIED BECAUSE THEY FELL ASLEEP IN THEIR CAR SEATS AND THEIR PARENTS DIDN`T REALIZE THEY WERE STILL IN THE CAR.

HEAT STRESS FROM EXERTION OR WORKING IN HOT ENVIRONMENTS PLACES YOU AT RISK FOR ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT STROKE, HEAT EXHAUSTION, OR HEAT CRAMPS.

STUDIES INDICATE THAT, OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, THE SEVERITY OF HEAT DISORDERS TEND TO INCREASE WITH AGE.  CONDITIONS THAT CAUSE CRAMPS IN A 17 YEAR OLD MAY RESULT IN HEAT EXHAUSTION FOR SOME AGE 40 AND HEAT STROKE IN A PERSON OVER 60.

SUNBURN WITH ITS ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION BURNS CAN SIGNIFICANTLY --------- THE SKINS ABILITY TO SHED EXCESS HEAT.

HEAT CRAMPS ARE PAINFUL SPASMS USUALLY IN THE MUSCLES OR LEGS AND ABDOMEN AND ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY SWEATING.  TAKE SIPS OF WATER.  IF NAUSEA OCCURS...DISCONTINUE WATER.

SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION ARE HEAVY SWEATING, WEAKNESS, THE SKIN COLD...PALE AND CLAMMY, FAINTING AND/OR VOMITING.  GET OUT OF THE SUN...LAY DOWN AND LOOSEN CLOTHING.  TRY TO GET INTO AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM.  APPLY COOL WET CLOTHS.  TRY SIPS OF WATER.  IF NAUSEA OCCURS...DISCONTINUE WATER.  IF VOMITING CONTINUES...SEEK IMMEDIATE MEDICAL ATTENTION.

HEAT STROKE IS DANGEROUSLY HIGH BODY TEMPERATURE ...ABOUT 106F OR HIGHER. IT RESULTS IN HOT DRY SKIN...RAPID STRONG PULSE...POSSIBLE UNCONSCIOUSNESS.  THIS IS A SEVERE MEDICAL EMERGENCY AND GET THE PERSON TO A HOSPITAL IMMEDIATELY!!!  DELAY CAN BE FATAL.  WHILE WAITING FOR EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE,  TRY AND MOVE THE VICTIM TO A COOLER ENVIRONMENT. REDUCE BODY TEMPERATURE WITH A COLD BATH OR SPONGING.  DO NOT GIVE FLUIDS.

HERE IS WHAT YOU CAN DO AT HOME OR AT WORK TO REDUCE YOUR RISKS.

AVOID HEAVY EXERTION, EXTREME HEAT, AND SUN EXPOSURE WHENEVER POSSIBLE.

MONITOR HIGH RISK INDIVIDUALS BY CHECKING ON ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AS WELL AS CHILDREN.

SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  AVOID CAFFEINATED AND ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES WHICH CAN INCREASE THE RISK OF DEHYDRATION.

DRESS IN LIGHT COLORED LOOSELY FITTING CLOTHING.

MAKE SURE YOUR CHILD`S SAFETY SEAT AND SEAT BUCKLES ARE NOT TOO HOT BEFORE SECURING YOUR CHILD IN A SAFETY RESTRAINT SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOUR CAR HAS BEEN PARKED IN THE HEAT.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Today the heat will really take a grip on the area.  This morning it is mostly sun with an occasional cloud.  Temperatures are already in the 80's for most areas.  It is going to be hazy, very hot and very humid.  High temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90's with heat indices over 100 degrees.  Temperatures along/on the water won't be much cooler in the upper 80's to low 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's to 100's.  Lows tonight in the low 70's.  There are already Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings for some counties across the state and urban areas of NY and PA.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather today with a low chance of isolated or scattered showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.

Water conditions are all rated good today with light and variable winds this morning predominantly out of the west or west-northwest.  Winds may pick up slightly this morning before subsiding this afternoon and we may even see an easterly/southeasterly sea breeze.  Raritan Bay will have W winds at 5-10 knots changing to NW with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have W winds 7-9 knots changing to the northwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have W winds 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet then 1 foot or less then increasing again to 1-2 feet in the evening.  Inshore ocean waters will have WNW/W winds 8-12 knots this morning with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds changing to W/WNW winds 6-9 knots with seas 2 feet at 8 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have WNW winds 13-18 knots with seas 3 feet at 8 seconds subsiding to W winds 10-14 knots with seas 3 feet at 8 seconds.

Surf and beach looks good today with a Low Risk of rip currents.  It will be hot, even at the beach today.  Surf temperatures will be warm too in the upper 60's to low 70's.  Right now winds are variable and calm out of the west or west-northwest at around 5 mph with surf conditions calm around 1 foot.  Winds may increase out of the west to 10 mph with surf still calm around 2 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 7 seconds.  UV Index will be Very High at 9/15!  Be careful today on the beach, sitting in the sun in the heat and humidity.  Heat indices will easily be in the low 90's or 100's and heat exhaustion can happen quickly!  Also, be alert to any thunderstorms that may move in or pop up.

Have a great day and stay cool!

[ped579]

What a morning on the beach... Flies galore even with 100% deet did not help.  We did manage one skate though.  WNW wind at around 5 and a air temp of 92 with the water still cool at around 65 today right at the waters edge.

[Pfishingruven]

What a morning on the beach... Flies galore even with 100% deet did not help.  We did manage one skate though.  WNW wind at around 5 and a air temp of 92 with the water still cool at around 65 today right at the waters edge.

Good try getting out there !

Between flies and mosquitoes, with all the rain we have gotten, you can't even go outside in your neighborhood let alone opposite the marshes on a west wind !  The sea breeze is trying, not sure it will get it together.  The pockets of colder water along the surf is hard too.  There are not many monitoring stations and the ones that were there have not been replaced from Sandy.  AC was 68 this morning and now into the 70's.  Looks like we have a cold spot along IBSP .

[ped579]

Here is a snapshot of the water temps when we were out there.  And your right there was a pocket of cooler water just clinging to the shore line.

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a snapshot of the water temps when we were out there.  And your right there was a pocket of cooler water just clinging to the shore line.

RU's COOL Room is very useful and specific to our state .  It has definitely been a unique Summer weather pattern so far.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Here we go again, hazy, hot and humid. However, if you can deal with the heat, today looks like a nice day.  The High Pressure has moved onshore and another high pressure to our northwest will eventually merge.  This continues to keep high heat and humidity in the area.  This morning, all's quiet on the weather front, with sunny skies and some higher clouds mixing in here and there.  Some additional clouds may build in this afternoon.  Temperatures are going to be HOT with inland highs in the mid to upper 90's today with high humidity and heat indices into the upper 90's and 100's.  Not much relief at the beach either with upper 80's to low 90's along/on the water with heat indices into the upper 90's.  Lows tonight will range from the low to upper 70's.  Excessive Heat Advisories and Heat Advisories have been issued for western and northern urban areas.  A sea breeze will try again during the afternoon and if it gets going bring some slightly cooler easterly winds.  There is a very low chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms.  These will likely pop up and be smaller storms that move out fairly quickly!

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations with lighter winds and calmer seas.  The High has moved slightly inland over the coast, so the southerly flow over ocean waters will not happen until that high gets back out over the water, which looks like Thursday or Friday right now.  Raritan Bay will have variable winds today starting north at 5-10 knots then changing to NE in the afternoon, then south in the evening and west after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will also be variable starting off north around 5-10 knots then changing to variable tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will north winds 5-10 knots today with seas 1-2 feet subsiding 1 foot or less then becoming southeast tonight then southwest late around 5 knots changing to variable in the early morning hours with seas 1 foot or less.  Inshore ocean waters will have north/north-northwest winds 8-13 knots changing to north/north-northeast 6-11 knots with seas 2 feet at 7 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have north winds changing to northeast at 7-14 knots with seas 2 feet at 7 seconds.

Surf and beach look good with a Low Risk of rip currents, calmer surf conditions and a slowly warming surf temperatures.  Winds are calm and variable, however predominantly out of the north/northeast at 5 mph and calm surf at around 1 foot.  Winds could increase out of the northwest to 10 mph with waves 2 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 7 seconds.  Surf temperatures may be warming from the upper 50's, but there are still some pockets of lower to mid 60's waters showing up on the morning satellite scans.  A sea breeze may form today bringing winds more out of the east.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.  Just keep an eye out for any storms that pop up or move in today!

Have a great day!  Stay cool and hydrated and remember heat related illnesses are the #1 weather killer!!

[ped579]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Besides the heat, today will be a nice day.  It is day 4 of HAZY, HOT and HUMID!  It is clear and sunny this morning with some occasional clouds mixed in.  Clouds could build throughout the day.  There are temperatures already in the mid 80's and some places last night did not ever get out of the 80's.  Yesterday's northerly winds across most of the state and a northeasterly sea breeze kept the temperatures and humidity just slightly lower than anticipated.  Today, High temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's to 100's.  Along/on the water high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's with heat indices in the mid to upper 90's.  Winds will initially be out of the north, but that will change to a southeast wind in the afternoon.  There is a chance of a sea breeze from the east or southeast as well.  Excessive Heat Warnings for Western NJ from Mercer down to Gloucester Counties and Heat Advisories for Northeastern NJ around NYC are in effect.  Today will be the "cooler" of the next 3 days.  There is a low chance of isolated or scattered showers or thunderstorms today with a generalized risk of severe weather.  This is only due to the heat and humidity.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations. The southerly flow will kick back in today, but will be mainly out of the southeast today.  Winds will be fairly calm today and could be quit variable for most of the day.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds around 5 knots changing to east later this morning then southeast this afternoon before becoming south at 5-10 knots tonight then southwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have variable winds to 5 knots in the morning becoming south in the afternoon around 6 knots and the south-southwest tonight at 5-7 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have northwest winds around 5 knots this morning becoming north late this morning then southeast in the afternoon and southwest 5-10 knots in the late evening with seas 1 foot or less.  Inshore ocean waters will have north/north-northwest winds 5-7 knots becoming southeast/east-southeast at 5-7 knots with seas 1 feet at 7-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have east-northeast winds 3-4 knots becoming south-southeast at 6-8 knots with seas 1-2 feet at 9 seconds.

Surf and beach looks good with a Low Risk of rip currents.  Winds are calm and variable at around 5 mph with calm surf around 1 foot.  The ocean looks like glass this morning.  Winds will remain calm at 5 mph out of the northwest this morning then the south this afternoon.  There is a good chance of a sea breeze to start out of the east/southeast today bringing a cooler breeze along the coast.  Surf will remain calm at around 1 foot with a very light swell.  Surf temperatures look like they have recovered from the southern upwelling and look to be back in the 70's statewide, except for Cape May Point and west.  UV Index will be Very High at 9/15.

Have a great day and stay cool!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Sounding like a broken record...HAZY, HOT and HUMID.  It is sunny with some scattered clouds in the mix.  Clouds will likely build during the day today.  Today and tomorrow look to be the hottest days of the heat wave.  Many areas area already seeing upper 80 degree temperatures!  High temperatures inland will be in the upper 90's to 100's with heat indices in the mid 100's.  High temperatures along/on the water will not be much cooler with low 90's.  Overnight lows in the mid 70's and I think some urban areas won't drop below the 80's.  Winds will be very calm today and again out of the southwest.  There is a possibility of a sea breeze, too. There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for the entire state, as well as neighboring states.  With high dew points and high humidity, it is going to feel oppressively hot!  With the heat and humidity will come a chance of isolated or scattered showers or thunderstorms all day today.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather today with northern areas possibly seeing some damaging winds and hail.  Storms could pop up or move in at any point today, but afternoon to evening are most likely.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations.  Winds look to be calm across the area with a west wind changing over to a southwest wind by the afternoon.  The westerly and southerly winds will take control for a few days again, unless the sea breeze gets going this afternoon and brings a more easterly wind onshore.  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have west winds changing to southwest winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have west winds changing to southwest at 5-10 knots (windier in the morning) and seas 1 feet at 8-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have west changing to west-southwest winds 9-13 knots with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds.

Surf and beach look good with a Low Risk of rip currents and calm winds and surf.  Currently winds are calm and varying, mainly out of the west around 5 mph with calm surf at around 1 foot.  Winds could increase out of the southwest from 5-10 mph with wave heights to 2 feet with a light swell at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures have jumped up to the mid to upper 70's for most areas.  It will be hot on the beach today and the UV Index is Very High at 9/15.

Have a great day and stay cool and hydrated!  The weekend is not looking great, but not a washout either.  I will have the full outlook this evening.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Sorry this is late this morning.  I had a furniture delivery this morning.  The Outlook was delayed too until this morning because the data/forecasts were all over the place for water conditions, but I have a good idea since last night's and this morning's runs.

I am sure you can guess the weather...HAZY, HOT & HUMID!  Sun will dominate the skies today with some clouds slowly building throughout the day.  Today looks to be the hottest with upper 90's inland across most of the state with heat indices in the 105's-110's.  It will be hot along/on the water as well in the low to mid 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's.  Lows overnight will likely not get out of the 80's for much of interior NJ and upper 70's for shore areas.  Most of the state is under an Excessive Heat Warning with a few counties with just Heat Advisories.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather today with a low chance of afternoon to evening isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms.  With the extreme heat and humidity, storms could pop-up or move in from just outside of the state like yesterday.

Water conditions will vary today by time and location today.  Statewide, winds and seas will pick up in the afternoon with near Small Craft Advisory criteria for Inshore Waters and Small Craft Advisories for Midshore to Offshore Waters.  Sandy Hook east to Montauk will be under Small Craft Advisories at 6PM tonight and all NJ Coastal Waters, excluding Bays will be under Small Craft Advisories at 4AM Saturday.  Conditions look to improve on Sunday.  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon then 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots tonight diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight.  Seas will start at 1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet before subsiding to 1 foot or less after midnight.  Barnegat Bay will have southwest/south-southwest winds 10-15 knots with seas around 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds 10-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet then 3 feet tonight.  Inshore ocean waters will have west-southwest winds 10-15 knots changing to southwest/south-southwest winds 15-20 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 4-5 seconds for northern waters and 2 feet at 8 seconds for southern waters.  There is a slight chance of getting a sea breeze today, only if it can overcome the stronger southwest winds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-southwest winds 15-20 knots with seas 4 feet at 5 seconds with Small Craft Advisories likely in the afternoon.  These conditions continue into Saturday before beginning to subside on Sunday.

Surf and beach look good and hot today with some windier conditions and slightly higher surf than the last couple of days.  There is a Low Risk of rip currents.  Winds are variable this morning around 5-10 mph mainly out of the south and then varying from the southeast to the southwest and surf is around 2-3 feet right now.  Winds will increase out of the southwest to 10-15 mph with wave heights 3 feet with a 2 foot south swell at 5 seconds.  There is a slight chance of a sea breeze, depending when and how strong the winds pickup.  UV Index is Very High at 10/15.  It will be hot on the beach today so stay hydrated and cool.  There are also chances of some pop-up thunderstorms, so be alert to any changes.

Have a great day and stay cool!

[Pfishingruven]

With temperatures nearing 100 and over 100 degrees in most parts of the state with heat indices in the 110's, a southeastern sea breeze is a welcome wind on the beach.  Temperatures dropped by 10 degrees and dew points fell as well bringing heat indices into the low 90's about an hour ago!

Hope you are staying cool the best way you can!  It is wicked out there.