NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition July 22-26, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This week will bring another unsettled weather pattern, however it looks like more of a typical Summer week.  While, it looks bad on paper, the reality is the week won't end up being all that bad!  With the heat wave over for the foreseeable future, temperatures will return to normal this with a couple of days slightly above normal.  Inland highs will be in the mid to upper 80's with Tuesday and Wednesday possibly seeing low 90's.  Highs along/on the water will be in the low 80's with mid 80's on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Overnight lows will still be in the upper 60's to low 70's.  The air in place over the state will be slightly drier (when it's not raining) with lower dew points and lower humidity making heat indices closer to the actual temperature.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms each day with Tuesday, Wednesday Night and Thursday having the greatest chances of more organized storms.  Storms could be strong to severe all week with a generalized risk so far.  Over the next couple of days, Coastal Flooding could be an issue with higher astronomical tides by around 0.5 feet.  Areas in Coastal Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties need to be aware of this, as southern areas do not look much above Mean Astronomical Tide levels.  Areas and roadways that normally flood may see flooding at high tides between Sunday Night and Tuesday.  Water conditions are rated good for all inshore waters through Wednesday.  Models are indicating winds and seas may increase to Small Craft Advisory Criteria for Thursday through Friday Night, although this model data looks like it may be overdone and NWS Forecasts are not indicating any SCA's for this week.  Midshore to Offshore waters will vary all week, with good conditions except for Tuesday Afternoon and then Thursday and Friday again, based on model data right now.  So, Thursday and Friday will have to be watched over the next couple of days to really see where these forecasts will go.  Water temperatures are recovering some after the strong southerly upwelling.  Bays and Rivers are in the upper 70's to mid 80's.  Inshore ocean waters are in the low to mid 70's.  Midshore to Offshore are in the mid to upper 70's, approaching 80's in the Hudson Canyon.  Surf temperatures are still varying from lower 60's to mid 70's with Atlantic City showing  66 degrees.  Surf and beach conditions look good all week with Low Risks of rip currents, lighter winds and lower wave heights with smaller swells all week.  UV Index will be Very High for the week, so despite the clouds and rains, you will still see sun a majority of the time.

Weak low pressure on a nearly stationary and stalled out front stretching from Southern NJ into Northern Virginia will stretch northward through NJ on Tuesday then eastward and off the coast on Tuesday Night.  High pressure in the Great Lakes on Wednesday will build into Southeast Canada on Thursday and Friday.  A nearly stationary front will remain just off the coast from Wednesday through Friday.   A new cold front is expected to cross the Northeast next weekend!

The weekend looks like it will be a continuation of the week with seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 80's, comfortable humidity levels and some chances of shower and thunderstorms.  Water conditions look normal and are rated good with nothing obvious standing out right now.  Surf and beach conditions will continue to be good with Low Risks of rip currents.

The tropics may pick up this week with a disturbance moving off of Africa into the East Atlantic, that will probably grab the NHC's attention within a day or so.  It is just something to watch over the next week or so.

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80's inland, Low to mid 80's along/on the water
Low:   Low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 8/15
Sunrise: 5:46am
Sunset: 8:20pm
Full Moon: 2:17pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather  - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 47/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80's inland, Low to mid 80's along/on the water
Low:   Low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 9/15
Sunrise: 5:47am
Sunset: 8:19pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance showers and thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 90's inland, Mid 80's along/on the water
Low:   Upper 60's to low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:47am
Sunset: 8:18pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80's inland, low to mid 80's along/on the water
Low:   Upper 60's to low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/15
Sunrise: 5:48am
Sunset: 8:17pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt - 43/50

Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80's inland, Low 80's along/on the water
Low:   Upper 60's to low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 9/15
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 8:16pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Fair
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tide Flooding Forecasts









Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  86°F
Monday
Wind:  ESE 7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SSW 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SSW 6 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  N 6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 6 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  72°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  83°F
 Monday
Wind:  SE 5 knots increasing to 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming NE
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 7 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fellinger]

Good info and news! I will be watching Thursday and Friday.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A cloudy start to the day with a mix of sun occasionally.  It will be more cloudy than sunny today.  Along the coast and on the water in some areas there is fog limiting visibility to less than 1 mile.  While it is not hot, it is humid this morning.  A stalled out front is splitting the state in half and those south of the front are definitely going to see higher humidity.  High temperatures inland will be in the mid 80's with highs along/on the water in the low 80's.  Overnight lows in the low to mid 70's.  It will remain humid and sticky all day today with all the moisture in the atmosphere.  There is a chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms today and then by this evening into the overnight, showers and thunderstorms are more likely and will be more widely scattered.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with a generalized risk of severe weather today.

Water conditions are all rated good, except for the fog limiting visibility to less than 1 nautical mile in areas.  The fog should clear out by later morning into the afternoon, but with limited sun and an easterly wind, it may keep the fog in place longer than wanted!  Raritan Bay will have east winds around 10 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less and fog this morning limiting visibility 1-3 nm, right now visibility is likely reduced to less than 1 nm.  Barnegat Bay will have southeast winds around 6 knots changing to south winds tonight around 5 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  There is some patchy fog with visibility 1-3 nm.  The heavier fog in this area is along the ocean right now.  Delaware Bay will have east winds changing to southeast winds in the afternoon around 5 knots then changing to south winds at 10 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet.  Fog is limiting visibility this morning to less than 1 nm and should increase 1-3 nm by this afternoon.  Inshore ocean waters will have east-northeast winds 3-7 knots changing to east-southeast/southeast/south-southeast winds 6-9 knots this afternoon with seas 2 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Fog is also limiting visibility to less than 1 nm which should increase 1-3 nm.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have east-southeast winds 4-5 knots changing to south-southeast winds 6-8 knots with seas 3 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Patchy fog conditions limiting visibility to less than 1 nm and increasing to 1-3 nm this afternoon.

Surf and beach conditions look good with some fog this morning and a Low Risk of rip currents.  Winds are variable between 5-10 mph predominantly out of the east with moderate surf and wave heights varying from 1-3 feet.  Winds will continue out of the southeast at 5-10 mph today with wave heights 3 feet with a 2 foot south swell at 6 seconds.  UV Index is Moderate at 5/15, which could increase if the sun makes it out.  Surf temperatures vary from the mid 60's to mid 70's.  If you venture to the beach today, be alert for any thunderstorms!

Have a great day!





















 

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI has issued a Flood Advisory for Morris and Somerset Counties for urban and small stream flooding until 6:15 PM.

Coastal Flood Advisories have also been issued for Coastal Areas of Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May & Cumberland Counties, including river front, bay front and ocean front areas.  Due to higher than normal astronomical high tides, minor flooding could occur tonight during high tides between 7P-11P.  Areas and roadways that are prone to flooding and normally flood, will likely flood this evening.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

NJC027-035-222215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0129.130722T1922Z-130722T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
322 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 321 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
  AREA OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
  NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AND MORRIS COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
  TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND
  TO FILL AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
  ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7433 4084 7432 4079 7436 4074 7436
      4068 7445 4067 7440 4062 7442 4058 7452
      4055 7452 4058 7472 4090 7471 4092 7465
      4097 7464 4109 7450 4103 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4090 7427

$$

MEOLA

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-230300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0015.130722T2300Z-130723T0300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
308 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 700 PM UNTIL 1100 PM THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INCLUDING
  DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS
  EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
  OCCURS AROUND 800 PM. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS, ALONG
  DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH
  TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED, LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

IOVINO

[Pfishingruven]

Showers and thunderstorms are popping-up in and around NJ and moving into the area.  Some of these storms are strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent & dangerous lightning and heavy, heavy rains.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Monmouth & Ocean Counties!

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A crazy evening and overnight for most of the state with thunderstorms producing damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains causing flooding conditions in many places.  Some areas received 2-3 inches of rain in just an hour or so.  This morning there is a mix of clouds and sun with a line of showers in Southern NJ moving northeast.  It will continue to be mostly cloudy today and hazy with any sun making it out.  The stalled out front has lifted north of the state as a warm front, leaving us in the warm sector with hot and humid air.  High temperatures inland will be in the upper 80's to low 90's with very humid air again, making it feel warmer than it is.  Highs along/on the water will be in the low 80's.  Overnight lows in the low 70's, again with high humidity!  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms all day and tonight.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with e generalized risk of severe weather across the state.  Northeastern and Central Eastern NJ around the NYC area could see damaging winds and even a chance of tornadoes.  This area stretches down to the Raritan and borders Middlesex and Monmouth Counties.  These storms have been slow moving and tend to remain over areas for a longer time than it would appear they will.  Heavy rains are possible in areas that have already seen flooding and flash flooding conditions!  Flash Flood Watches and Flood Warnings continue across most of the state with the exception of most of Southern NJ. 

Water conditions are rated good this morning.  This afternoon winds will pick up and seas will build by a foot or so bringing cautious conditions inshore close to SCA criteria and Midshore to Offshore may see SCA's issued.  In addition, any storms getting over the water will bring high winds, lightning and rain.  Areas to the north around NYC area should be alert for possible water spouts today!  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots changing to west wind tonight with seas 1 foot or less and visibility 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have southwest winds around 10 knots changing to west winds tonight at 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less and visibility 1-3 nautical miles.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots changing to west winds 5-10 knots at night increasing to 10-15 knots late with seas 1-2 feet and visibility 1-3 nautical miles.  Inshore ocean waters will have southwest/west-southwest winds 9-17 knots increasing 12-19 knots this afternoon with seas 2-3 feet at 8 seconds building to 3-4 feet at 8 seconds this afternoon with visibility 1-3 nautical miles decreasing to less than 1 nautical mile in the afternoon.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have southwest winds 13-17 knots increasing to 16-22 knots in the afternoon with seas 4 feet at 8 seconds building to 5 feet at 8 seconds with decreased visibility.

Surf and beach look OK today with a Moderate Risk of rip currents, hazy conditions when the sun is out and the threat of thunderstorms.  Currently winds are variable around 5-10 mph with moderate surf and wave heights 1-2 feet.  Winds could increase out of the southwest to 15 mph with wave heights to 3 feet with a 3 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.  Surf temperatures are in the mid 60's to mid 70's statewide.

The NHC has identified a wave coming off of Africa as an area of Invest #98L in the Eastern Atlantic.  This is the wave I referenced in the Week Outlook and will be something to watch in the future.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Mostly sunny this morning with a mix of clouds, especially across the northern and southern parts of the state.  It will continue to be mostly sunny with clouds building in today becoming mostly cloudy tonight.  High temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 80's with highs along/on the water in the low 80's.  Lows tonight in the mid 60's.  A cold front off to the west of the area will push through today.  Behind it are some slightly cooler temperatures and drier air.  There is a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day.  The chances increase some tonight for mainly rain/showers.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations, although seas are still elevated for Midshore to Offshore locations between 3-5 feet at 8 seconds.  Conditions will improve today with winds subsiding some in the afternoon and any leftover residual seas should clear up mostly before winds pick up later tonight into Thursday.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds 5-10 knots changing to north tonight and increasing 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.  Seas will be 1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet late tonight.  Barnegat Bay will have northwest winds around 10 knots today changing to north then north-northeast winds tonight at 10 knots with some higher gusts with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have west winds around 10 knots changing to northwest today then increasing north winds 10-15 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have west/west-northwest winds 8-11 knots in the morning changing to a west-northwest winds 4-7 knots in the afternoon before changing to a northeast wind and increasing 12-18 knots with gusts near 20 knots tonight.  Seas will start at 3 feet at 7-8 seconds this morning and then 2-3 feet at 8 seconds in the afternoon into tonight.  Midshore to Offshore vary depending on distance today.  West-northwest winds 9-12 knots this morning becoming west at 6-9 knots and then increasing northeaast winds 12-16 knots with some gusts to 20 knots and seas varying from 3 feet at 8 seconds around the Mud Hole to 5 feet at 8 seconds near Chicken Canyon.

Surf and beach conditions look good today with a Low Risk of rip currents.  Winds are variable this morning mainly out of the west at 5-10 mph with some rougher surf around 1-2 feet.  Northwest winds will continue around 10 mph with wave heights around 3 feet with a 3 foot south swell at 7 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60's to upper 70's with some cooler pockets in places.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.

The tropical wave off the coast of Africa has become Tropical Depression #4 and will likely be increased to Tropical Storm Dorian later this morning.  It is still too early and the storm is still too far east in the Atlantic to really tell anything yet.  Officially, the NHC brings the storm north of the Leeward/Lesser Antilles Islands as a weak tropical storm.  It will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Cloudy and overcast with some light showers across southeastern Ocean, Atlantic & Cape May Counties which are moving northeast.  There are also some light showers in Maryland and Delaware that may make it into the state later.  It will continue to be cloudy today with much cooler and drier air over the area.  The cold front has pushed offshore and is stalling out with a wave of low pressure traveling along it.  The placement of the front and low will bring some windier conditions inland and to coastal and marine areas.  Highs today will be in the upper 70's maybe low 80's inland with highs along/on the water in the mid to upper 70's.  Overnight lows will be in the low 60's again.  There is a chance of scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm (although not likely) all day into the overnight.

Water conditions are cautious today with near Small Craft Advisory criteria for Inshore to Midshore waters and Small Craft Criteria for Offshore waters.  A strong northeast flow has setup and could bring winds over 20 knots and seas in excess of 5 feet.  Raritan Bay will have northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 10 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less, with some 1+ foot seas with gustier winds causing short chop wind waves.  Barnegat Bay will have northeast winds around 15 knots changing and diminishing to north-northeast winds around 10 knots tonight with seas around 1 feet and short chop wind waves.  Delaware Bay will have northeast winds 15 knots with gusts to  20 knots and 10-15 knots winds tonight with seas 2-3 feet.  Inshore to Midshore ocean waters will have 14-20 knots diminishing slightly later mainly across southern waters to 11-15 knots with seas 3-4 feet at 4-6 seconds.  Offshore waters will have SCA criteria conditions with northeast winds 17-23 knots with seas 5 feet at 5 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions will be elevated today with a Moderate Risk of rip currents.  Northeast winds from 15-20 mph will cause rough, higher surf with short period waves stacked up on each other.  Wave heights around 3-4 feet with a 3-4 foot east swell at 5 seconds.  It is pretty messy out there looking at the many surf cams up and down the coast.    Be careful in the water!  Even though the rip current risk is only Moderate, the waves are almost one after another and rough!  The east wind has brought surf temperatures into the low to upper 70's.  UV Index is High at 6/15.

The tropics are active today with Tropical Storm Dorian in the East Atlantic and an Invest area northeast of Bermuda.  TS Dorian is forecast to remain a tropical storm over the next few days and continue north of the Leeward and Lesser Antilles.  The Invest area does not look like it will affect any of the US.  This is something to keep a watch in the future!

Have a great day!

[fluke - u]

 ..Thanks Matt....

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI has issue Small Craft Advisories for Sandy Hook to Delaware excluding Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay until tomorrow!

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-260630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
6 SECONDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS.   A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT... BECOMING NW
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452-453-260630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
6 SECONDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS.   A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT... BECOMING NW
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ454-455-260630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
7 SECONDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN NE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS.   A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT... DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

ANZ450>455-260815-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0065.130725T1907Z-130726T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
307 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING AND SHOULD
  LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI has issued Coastal Flood Advisories for Coastal Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties from 9PM to 2AM during high tide for widespread minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-260600-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0017.130726T0100Z-130726T0600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
353 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATION...DELAWARE AND RARITAN BAYS AND ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT
  OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND RARITAN BAY STARTS
  BETWEEN 10 PM AND 11 PM THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TIDES IN
  DELAWARE BAY AND IN THE BACK BAYS OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH
  TIDE ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND 2 TO 3 FEET ON
  DELAWARE BAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD
  FLOOD LATER TONIGHT. PARKING LOTS AND LOW LYING AREAS
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO TIDAL FLOODING MIGHT ALSO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Here is Friday Morning's update, a few hours closer to the weekend.  There is a mix of sun and clouds this morning with cooler temperatures in the upper 60's across the state.  Skies will be partly sunny today with a mix of sun and clouds.  High temperatures inland will be in the low 80's with highs along/on the water in the mid to upper 70's.  Overnight lows in the low to mid 60's.  Air will remain mostly drier today with lower to moderate humidity.  There is a very low chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms today with a generalized risk of severe weather.

Water conditions will vary today by location and time.  This morning most areas are cautious with a Small Craft Advisory for ocean waters with winds 10-20 knots and seas 4-5 feet still.  These conditions will improve throughout the day as the low riding along the stalled out front continues to move to the north.  Small Craft Advisories will likely be canceled by noon or so.  Today will continue to have a strong northerly flow changing over to a westerly flow in the afternoon.  Raritan Bay will have north winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing  to 5-10 knots late this morning then changing to northeast in the afternoon, southeast in the late afternoon, the south tonight and southwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have north winds 5-8 knots diminishing to less than 5 knots in the afternoon then changing to the south-southwest tonight at 5-7 knots before diminishing to less than 5 knots late tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have north winds 10-15 knots becoming northeast at 5-10 knots late this morning, then east in the late afternoon and south at 5 knots tonight.  Seas are 2-4 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet in the afternoon.  Inshore ocean waters will have north/north-northwest winds 11-16 knots with some gusts to 20 knots this morning changing to west-northwest/north-northwest at 2-5 knots this afternoon.  Seas will be 3-4 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Some seas are nearing 5 feet still this morning.  Midshore to Offshore will have north winds 12-23 knots this morning before changing and diminishing to northwest/west-northwest winds 5-12 knots and seas 3-6 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Seas will subside some this afternoon in the 3-5 foot range.

Surf and beach conditions look elevated this morning subsiding some in the afternoon with a Moderate Risk of rip currents.  Winds are variable, but mainly out of the northwest/west at 5-10 mph with some rougher surf around 2-3 feet.  Winds will continue out of the north to 15 mph this morning before changing to northeast at 5 mph this afternoon.  Surf will be rough around 4 feet with a 3 foot east swell at 6 seconds.  Surf will settle down some and wave heights subside to around 3 feet this afternoon.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60's to mid 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.  Be alert for any thunderstorms today!

Still watching Tropical Storm Dorian in the Atlantic.

Have a great day and a good start to the weekend!  Weekend Outlook is mostly unchanged with just some increased chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.