NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Week Edition: Sept 9-13, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Another unsettled week with varying weather patterns, including a blast of hot and humid Summer air and then Fall like conditions moving in at the end of the week.  Despite unsettled weather, the week will not be horrible and there should be more sun than rain.  There’s a chance of scattered showers and/or thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.  High temperatures will vary from upper 60’s to low 90’s with overnight lows ranging from mid 40’s to low 70’s.  Air will start off dry this week, then moisture will move in Monday Night and stick around through Friday before cooler, drier air moves in.  Dew points will start off in the 40’s and 50’s increase to the 60’s and 70’s and then drop back into the 40’s and 50’s by the end of the week.  This will make humidity low, then moderate to high with muggy conditions and low again at the end of the week.  Water conditions will vary this week by day and location, including Sunday Night into Monday.  With highs, lows and fronts moving through this week, gusty winds and elevated seas are possible most of the week.  Winds could gust as high as 25 knots locally with seas 3-5 feet.  However, conditions will not persist long enough for Small Craft Advisories.  Water temperatures are slowly cooling.  Rivers and bays are in the mid to upper 70’s, inshore ocean waters are in the low 70’s, midshore to offshore waters are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70’s.  Surf and beach conditions will be good with the exception of Monday.  Monday will have possible Moderate Risks of rip currents with Low Risks the rest of the week.  Locally, gusty winds are possible all week and wave heights will vary from 1-3 feet most of the week.   UV Index will be High this week.

High pressure will build across the region on Monday before shifting to our east Monday Night and Tuesday.  Low pressure in Southeast Canada will first pull a strong warm front through our region on Tuesday, then a cold front later Thursday and Thursday Night.  Fall like high pressure across the Midwest will build eastward during Friday and settle over the area next weekend.

The weekend looks like weather will be pleasant with cooler temperatures and dry air.  No rain in the forecast with high pressure dominating.  Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with overnight lows in the mid 40’s to upper 50’s.  Water conditions will be good to cautious with possible gusty winds and higher seas, however conditions will be under SCA criteria.  Surf and beach conditions will be good as well with some possible gusty winds.

Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the East Atlantic off of Africa.  There is also Invest 92L in the West Atlantic which are the remnants of TS Gabrielle that are being watched.  It is too early to pinpoint either of these systems, but both need to be watched.  Even if they do not cause primary effects to land, they could bring some increased waves or swells to the area over the next several days to weeks.

Have a great week!

Monday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms (south to north)
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 70’s
Low:     Mid to Upper 60's inland and along/on the water, upper 50’s northern areas
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 7:16pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather  - Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy to mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70's to upper 80’s
Low:   Mid 60's to low 70’s
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:32am
Sunset: 7:14pm
Full Moon: 9:46pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Fair
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly to partly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 90’s inland, mid 80’s along/on the water
Low:   Low to mid 70’s
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:13pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly to partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80's inland, low 80's along/on the water and northern areas
Low:   Mid to upper 60's inland and along/on the water, low 60's across northern areas
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:34am
Sunset: 7:11pm
First Qtr: 1:10pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly to partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 70’s
Low:   Low 50's inland, Mid 50’s along/on the water, mid 40's across northern areas
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:35am
Sunset: 7:10pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tropics Satellite



Tropical Depression 9 Official Track



Invest 92L Modeled Tracks



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less building to 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  71°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:   1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday
Wind:  ENE 8 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSW 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SSW 7-10 knots becoming 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSW 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SSW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-8 knots becoming variable around 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: N 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet becoming 2-4 feet at night

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming S 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots diminishing to SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  69-73°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 5 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[ped579]

Looks like we will have some good weather for the weekend.  That's good because we have 2 weddings to shoot one Friday and the second Saturday.  One is down in Ship Bottom at the 13th Ave Gazebo.  I was thinking of bringing the surf stuff, think anyone will notice???

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A little chill in the air this morning with sun and a mix of clouds.  Today will continue sunny to mostly sunny with clouds gradually increasing throughout the day becoming mostly cloudy tonight.  It will be dry today and even tonight, except for some low chances of showers during the overnight for some northern areas.  Cooler and drier air is in place over the region today, but that will begin to move out during the day, bringing some warmer and more humid air by tonight.  High temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60’s with upper 50’s across northern areas.  Dew points will start in the 40’s and 50’s today and by tonight into tomorrow will see 50’s and more solid 60’s, then increasing into the 70’s over the next couple of days.  This means comfortable low humidity today, gradually increasing into tonight and the overnight becoming low to moderate with the warm front moving north.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations.  Winds will be east/northeast today becoming south/southwest tonight with some gustier winds possible with the moving warm front.  Some areas are still recovering from the sub SCA winds and seas last night, too.  Raritan Bay will have northeast winds 5-10 knots becoming southeast this afternoon then south tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have east-northeast winds around 10 knots becoming southeast this afternoon and then south-southwest tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southeast winds 10-15 knots becoming south around 10 knots tonight with seas 2-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have east-northeast winds 8-15 knots becoming east-southeast/east at 7-13 knots in the afternoon with seas 3-4 feet at 5 seconds becoming 3 feet at 9 seconds in the afternoon.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have east-northeast winds 8-13 knots becoming east-southeast in the afternoon at 6-9 knots with seas 3-4 feet at 6 seconds increasing to 9 seconds this afternoon.

Surf and beach conditions are good to ok with Moderate Risk of rip currents.  Winds will be out of the east/northeast then east/southeast this afternoon around 10-15 knots with normal to rougher surf, wave heights 1-3 feet and a 3 foot east swell at 7 seconds.  The east wind is stacking waves up on each other today.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70’s.  UV Index High at 6/15.

Tropical Storm Humberto has developed in the East Atlantic and there is still Invest 92L.  It is still too soon to know much of anything, but worth watching both of these systems over the next few days.

Have a great day!!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Some foggy and cloudy conditions with some sun mixed in across the state this morning.  Fog will clear out as soon as the sun makes it out from behind the clouds.  Clouds will decrease throughout the day becoming mostly clear by tonight.  Dry today with no rain in the forecast except some low chances of showers across northern NJ.  Today will start the big warm-up before the cool down.  Highs today inland in the mid to upper 80’s with low 80’s along/on the water and across northern areas.  Overnight lows will only be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s inland and along/on the water with mid 60’s for northern areas.  With the heat will come the moist air and humidity.  Dew points will be in the 60’s and 70’s today making moderate to high humidity with muggy conditions.  The higher dew points will also bring higher heat indices in the low to mid 90’s today.

Water conditions are rated good for this morning and then cautious this afternoon with gusty winds and building seas.  A stronger southerly flow is setting up over the next few days.  Winds to 20 knots and seas 3-4 feet will still remain under SCA criteria, though.  Raritan Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots becoming southwest tonight with seas 1-2 feet.  Barnegat Bay will have southwest winds 7-11 knots becoming south-southwest tonight at 6-8 knots with seas around 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots becoming 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon then southwest tonight at 10-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have southwest/south-southwest winds 10-15 knots becoming 15-20 knots in the afternoon with seas 2 feet at 8 seconds building to 3 feet at 4 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have southwest/south-southwest winds 10-15 knots becoming 15-22 knots with seas 3 feet at 8 seconds becoming 3-4 feet at 4-9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good to ok with Low Risks of rip currents today.  Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at 10-15 knots with some rougher surf, wave heights of 1-3 feet and a 3 foot southeast swell at 7 seconds decreasing to around 4 seconds this afternoon with waves stacking up on each other.  Southerly flow will cause some upwelling and begin some slight cooling of surf temperatures from the low 70’s to upper 60’s over the next few days.  UV Index is High at 6/15.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is back and approaching Bermuda.  It will strengthen around 50 mph and stay off the coast of NJ.  This will bring some changed water conditions towards the end of the week with some increased waves and swells.  The good thing is, it will speed up very quickly off to the northeast after it passes Bermuda getting picked up by a front, so it won’t stay off the coast very long.  Tropical Storm Ernesto is still out in the West Atlantic and will be the next storm to watch into next week.

Have a great day!  Hot and humid tomorrow with some possible severe weather Wednesday and Thursday…Summer is not done yet!

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt.

[Pfishingruven]

Looks like we will have some good weather for the weekend.  That's good because we have 2 weddings to shoot one Friday and the second Saturday.  One is down in Ship Bottom at the 13th Ave Gazebo.  I was thinking of bringing the surf stuff, think anyone will notice???

Yes, the weekend still looks nice!  Cooler and drier air with temps in the mid to upper 60's, low humidity and dry.

Go for it...even if they do notice !

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt.

No problem !

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds this morning with some fog across northern and marine areas.  Most areas did not get out of the upper to low 70’s last night.  It is going to be hazy, hot and humid with sunny skies.  Clouds will build in gradually during the day becoming partly cloudy tonight.  It should be dry across most of the state with a low chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the state.  High temperatures will be in the low 90’s with mid to upper 80’s along/on the water.  Overnight lows will only get down into the low 70’s inland, low to mid 70’s along/on the water and upper 60’s in northern areas.  Dew points will be in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s today with high humidity.  The increased dew points will make heat indices into the mid to upper 90’s today, so take all of those heat precautions (hydration, shade, stay cool).  The good thing is this is only a one day event.  By tomorrow, temperatures will be back in the 80’s and a cold front will move through overnight.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations except for Offshore this afternoon will be cautious.  A long period swell will begin to reach the region from Tropical Storm Gabrielle by tonight.  There will be some gusty winds approaching 15-20 knots depending on location and seas will be in the 2-4 foot range.  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southwest winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 10-15 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have west-southwest/southwest/south-southwest winds 10-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 8-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have west-southwest/southwest winds 10-20 knots with seas 2-4 feet at 8-9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good with a Low Risk of rip currents.  This will change with the increased long period swell from TS Gabrielle that will reach the area tonight.  South winds 10-15 knots with normal to some rougher surf with wave heights 1-3 feet, increasing as high as 4 feet tonight with a 3 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  With the heat today and tomorrow, many will be inclined to go to the beach to cool off in the ocean.  BE VERY CAREFUL in the water!!  Lifeguards are NOT on duty and though the water may not look bad, the swell from TS Gabrielle could produce dangerous water conditions.  UV Index is High at 6/15.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is hovering around Bermuda with winds around 50 mph and will stay in that area until Thursday when it will gets caught up in the trough/cold front and move off quickly to the northeast, well offshore of the coast and be past NJ by Friday Night. Gabrielle will bring long period swells to the area increasing seas to 4-6 feet at 10-15 seconds and will only be a threat to water conditions.  Humberto has become a hurricane this morning, almost breaking a record for the longest time without a hurricane within a hurricane season.  Humberto is still way out in the Western Atlantic and will be the next storm to watch.  There are two other areas of interest the NHC is watching for development as well.

Have a great day and stay cool!!

[Pfishingruven]

There is not much concern with Tropical Storm Gabrielle.  This is a slow moving storm right now over Bermuda that will quickly accelerate off to the northeast when it is picked up by a cold front tomorrow night.  It will remain well offshore before turning to the northeast.  It is a well organized storm, however it does not have much convection (thunderstorm activity) or moisture associated with it.  The extent of the effects will be some and increased long period swell with seas increasing to 3-5 feet with some 6 foot seas far offshore at 10-12 seconds.  This could cause some high and rough surf conditions with moderate to high risks of rip currents too.  There will be some gusty winds in the 15-20 knot range also, but they are from the front moving off, not from the storm.  Effects will begin tonight and last through the weekend.  TS Gabrielle will approach our offshore during Thursday and be moved off to the northeast by Thursday overnight.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 65.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds with some fog this morning, especially in northern, western and marine areas.  There are already some scattered thunderstorms moving into Hunterdon County with heavy rains.  Clouds will continue to build in today with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms all day.  Showers and storms will become more widely scattered to widespread tonight for most of the state and across northern areas all day today.  There is a general risk of severe weather statewide, but northern areas have an increased risk for damaging winds and hail.  All thunderstorms are capable of producing high winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80’s.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across northern areas.  Dew points will continue to be in the 60’s and 70’s until the cold front passes through the area overnight bringing cooler and drier air.  Until then, humidity will be high with very muggy conditions, but by tomorrow cooler and drier.

Water conditions are good to cautious.  With a continued strong southerly flow, winds will be in the 15-20 knot range for most of the day and increased long period swell from Gabrielle with wave heights to 4 feet inshore to midshore and 5 feet midshore to offshore.  However, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.  Here are some local marine forecasts across the state.  Raritan Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots changing to southwest tonight then northwest and increasing 10-15 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southwest wind 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots in the afternoon before changing to north-northwest wind tonight with seas around 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 10-15 knots changing to the southwest tonight then northwest after midnight with seas 2-3 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have southwest becoming south-southwest this afternoon with winds 10-20 knots and seas 3-4 feet at 10-12 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have southwest becoming south-southwest in the afternoon with winds 12-21 knots with seas 3-5 feet at 10-12 seconds.  Be careful out on the water the next few days.  These forecasts are average wave heights.  Waves can be higher from both the increased swell and thunderstorm activity today.

Surf and beach conditions are ok with Moderate Risks of rip currents today.  South winds at 10-15 knots today with some higher gusts are possible.  Surf is normal to a bit rougher with wave height 2-3 feet with a 3-4 foot southeast swell at 10-12 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  UV Index High at 6/15.  Be careful in and around ocean waters today.  Looks can be deceiving and strong currents and increased swells are making these natural currents stronger and more dangerous.

Gabrielle was downgraded to a Tropical Depression and has weakened some.  Strengthening is anticipated and possible, however either way it will not change the track or forecast for increased long period swells into the area and elevated seas, especially for far offshore seeing winds and seas from the storm.  Inshore to Midshore/Offshore will see a 3-5 swell at 10-12 seconds from the storm and that is about it.  Winds will not be an issue from the storm, but rather from the passing front.  Hurricane Humberto is still out in the East Atlantic and will be something to keep an eye on into next week.  Forecast is calling for a weakening and movement eventually off to the northeast.  There are two additional areas being watched for possible development as well.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC just increased the risk of severe weather over the entire state.  Most of the state is under a Slight Risk of severe weather and the remainder of the state is under a Generalized Risk.  In these areas damaging winds and hail are possible in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rains.  Storms will be scattered earlier and then more organized and widely scattered to more widespread.  The majority of the showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into the overnight.

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

Surf conditions have gotten worse than I expected to see from the long period swell coming ashore.  Watching some of the surf cams over the last hour and surf has increased from 2-3 feet this morning to 4-5 feet with some 6 footers at times with extremely rough surf and a dangerously strong undertow current.  This is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS to swim in, so stay out of the water.  Anyone fishing...be very careful and don't get caught off guard. 

Honestly, it looks like great surf fishing water, though.  If the temperatures were only a little cooler!

 

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Bergen, Essex, Passaic and Eastern Union Counties until 10PM.

These thunderstorms are capable of producing damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  Seek shelter immediately if you are in the path of any storms

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Be SAFE!!

[Pfishingruven]

The remainder of NJ Counties is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #525

[img]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525_radar_big.gif/img]

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning! A mix of sun and clouds this morning becoming partly to mostly sunny and clouds decreasing throughout the day.  It will be dry today with no rain in the forecast.  The cold front has pushed offshore and the cooler and drier air will begin working into the area.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s inland and along/on the water with low 70’s across northern areas.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s inland, mid to upper 50’s along/on the water and low 40’s across northern areas.  Dew points are in the 60’s with some 70’s in some areas.  These numbers will drop into the 40’s and 50’s during the day and into the overnight.  This will make humidity moderate to high this morning and into the afternoon, but will gradually decrease to more comfortable levels into tonight.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations.  Winds will still be gusty today to 20 knots and seas are still experiencing a long period swell from Gabrielle, which will pass well offshore today.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon into tonight with seas 1 foot or less building to 1-2 feet.  Barnegat Bay will have northwest winds 10-15 knots with seas around 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming north at 15-20 knots tonight with seas 2-3 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have west-northwest/northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots tonight with seas 3-4 feet at 8-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots tonight with seas 3-5 feet at 8-9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are ok with a Moderate Risk of rip currents.  Winds will be northwest at 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots tonight.  Surf is normal with wave heights around 3 feet this morning.  Surf will pick up today with rougher conditions, wave heights 3-4 feet with some higher waves possible and a 3 foot southeast swell at 9 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.  UV Index is High at 6/15.  Be careful in the water today!  There will be a strong undertow current today.

Gabrielle is a tropical depression again and will pass well offshore of the area today off to the northeast.  Hurricane Humberto is still going strong and the official track looks to keep the storm well offshore and off to the north over the next week or so.  Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Bay of Campeche/Southern Gulf and will go into Southwestern Texas or Mexico.  There is also another area of interest being watched.  Despite being active, the threats to the land are minimal right now.

Have a great Friday!  The weekend is looking nice…

[Pfishingruven]

There are some small isolated and scattered showers popping-up across the state.  These are short lived and quick moving and will not really cause any problems.  The cooler and drier air has already moved in and will continue to cool off tonight and the humidity will continue to drop.  There are also Small Craft Advisories issued from 8PM to 8AM for Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island, DE.

Have a good Friday Night!!

Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013


ANZ431-450>455-141200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0072.130914T0000Z-130914T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-140715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL
WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.WED...N WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452-453-140715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL
WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ454-455-140715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
3 TO 4 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-140715-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$