NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Sept 21-22, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

We can’t win them all and this weekend does not look the best from both weather and water conditions, but not a washout either.  There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms all weekend with the main round of rain and thunderstorms moving in Saturday in the afternoon and sticking around through Sunday Day.  Upwards of 1.50 inches of rain are possible this weekend and some of the storms could be strong to severe.  High temperatures will be in the low to upper 70’s and overnight lows will be in the 50’s and 60’s.  Moist and humid air will move in ahead of the cold front with a southerly flow and bring some warmer overnight temperatures and some moderately humid air.  Dew points will be in the 60’s before cooling off behind the cold front.  After the cold front moves through cooler and drier air will move in again.  Sunday will see the coolest temperatures and by late Sunday humidity will drop as well.  Water conditions will vary by time and location.  With the passing front, conditions are expected to deteriorate by Saturday Afternoon and be cautious through Sunday for most places with winds to 25 knots and seas 2-6 feet!  The likelihood of Small Craft Advisories Inshore is not likely, but Midshore to Offshore is likely with seas on Sunday to 6 feet and 25-30 knot winds.  Winds will cause short period wind chop waves at around 6 seconds.  Surf and beach conditions will shadow the water conditions on the inshore oceans, with Low to Moderate Risks of rip currents, gusty winds Saturday Afternoon through Sunday out of the south and some normal to rougher surf with wave heights 1-3 feet.  Water temperatures have dropped a couple to few degrees.  Rivers and bays are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with the warmer waters in southern areas, inshore ocean waters are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with southern waters warmer also and midshore to offshore waters in the mid to upper 60’s. 

High pressure will move off to the east this weekend.  A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and move through the region on Sunday before stalling to our south and east.  High pressure will build into the region later on Sunday and dominate much of next week.

Next week looks nice again with cooler and drier air moving in with high pressure for the majority of the week.  This is barring any type of tropical or coastal storm moving out of the south and up the coast.  Right now, the models have backed off this scenario, but without any storm system formed yet, it is hard to say what will or will not happen…it is simply hypothesis from a weather supercomputer.  It does look like an area of low pressure will end up coming from the Gulf of Mexico and making its way up the eastern seaboard, but right now this Low stays out at sea and well off the coast.  Provided there is not a coastal storm, the week will be dry with highs in the upper 60’s and 70’s with 40’s and 50’s overnight.  Humidity will be low again.  Water conditions will really vary and again depend on a storm or not.  Right now, most of the week is looking good, as is surf and beach conditions.  This could change, so keep updated here at NJSWF! 

Humberto is still out there as post-tropical remnants just drifting around waiting to get pulled off to the north-northeast.  Invest 95L is still being watched as is an area in the Atlantic near Bermuda.  So far nothing else, which is good!  Still a possibility of a coastal storm next week, but it looks like it won’t be tropical, but just a low pressure system that strengthens out at sea.

Have a great weekend!!

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 50%-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70’s
Low:     Mid to upper 60’s inland and along/on the water, upper 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:43am
Sunset: 6:56pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 37/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 70’s
Low:   Mid 50’s inland, low 60’s along/on the water, Low 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:44am
Sunset: 6:55pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Fair
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 67°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less building to 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  66°F   
Saturday
Wind:  S 6-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind: S 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  SW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  N 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  70°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  71°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  N 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  72°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds with fog in many areas, including marine areas this morning.  A line of showers has moved through the area and off the coast already this morning.  Today will continue to be mostly sunny with clouds building in becoming mostly cloudy by tonight.  The fog will burn off as soon as the sun makes it out in the areas with fog.  There is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day and more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the overnight with the passing cold front.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather too, so any thunderstorms could be strong to severe.    High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70’s with mid to upper 60’s inland and along/on the water and upper 50’s across northern areas.  Moist air is moving into the area with dew points already into the 60’s in areas and continuing to climb into the upper 60’s for some areas.  This will make humidity moderate with muggy conditions.  Humidity will stick around through Sunday before cooler and drier air moves in by Sunday Night.

Water conditions are good this morning, but will become cautious this afternoon with Small Craft Advisories issued for Sandy Hook east to Montauk and south to Fenwick Island, DE including New York Harbor and Raritan Bay from 6PM Saturday through Sunday Afternoon.  A southerly flow ahead of the cold front will bring winds in excess of 25 knots and seas to 5 feet.  Raritan Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots tonight with seas around 2 feet.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southeast winds 10-15 knots becoming south tonight with seas around 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots becoming southwest tonight at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and seas 2-3 feet with visibility limited to 1-3 nautical miles.  Inshore ocean waters will have east-southeast/south/south-southeast winds 5-10 knots becoming east-southeast/south at 15-20 knots this afternoon with seas 2-3 feet at 9-10 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have south/southeast winds 8-17 knots increasing to 15-20 knots this afternoon with seas 2-4 feet at 10 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions will be ok today with Moderate Risks of rip currents.  South winds will be 5-10 knots this morning becoming 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon.  Surf will be normal this morning  becoming rough this afternoon with wave heights 3-4 feet with a 2-3 foot east swell at 9 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the mid to upper 60’s.  UV Index High at 6/15.

The tropics are unchanged with just the two same areas being watched.  The coastal Low has disappeared from the forecast and models.  Invest 95L is moving into Texas and will bring some tropical moisture across the Gulf States over the next few days.

Have a great Saturday!!