NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Oct 5-6, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

An unsettled weekend to start off October and unseasonable temperatures to round out the oddities.  It was bound to happen, with such a stretch of stable weather.  Even though, the weather will be unsettled, the weekend will be nice for the most part.  There are chances of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.  These chances are very low with chances increasing into Sunday Night and Monday.  Areas to the north will have greater chances as well with areas to the south having much less chances of rain.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s inland with mid to upper 70’s along/on the water.  Overnight lows will only be in the low to mid 60’s inland and along/on the water with upper 50’s across northern areas.  Dew points will be in the 50’s to 60’s with some moist air moving in over the region.  This will make for some moderate and even muggy conditions, especially along coastal areas.  Water conditions are rated good for all locations, all weekend.  There may be some gusty winds in the 15-20 knot range, but seas will remain around 1-2 feet at 9-11 seconds.  Surf and beach conditions will be good with possible gusty winds, but seas will be calm to normal at 1-2 feet with a light 1-2 foot east/east-southeast swell at 10 seconds.  Water temperatures are steady in the mid to upper 60’s with some low 70’s in Delaware Bay.  UV Index will be Moderate from 3-5.

A frontal boundary to the south will begin to slowly lift back north across the area through Sunday.  A cold front will being to approach the area from the west late Sunday into Monday.  This boundary is expected to slowly move across the area Monday Night into Tuesday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen moves northward along the frontal boundary.  High pressure will then build into the area for the latter half of the week!

Next week will start off wet with the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen forecast to move through the area on Monday and Tuesday.  The track of the storm is not definitive, but in some form the storm will affect the area with some gusty winds to 20 knots or so and 2-3 inches of rain.  By Wednesday, things will dry out and remain dry through the remainder of the week.  High temperatures will be back into the low to mid 70’s with overnight lows in the 40’s and 50’s.  This will be cooler and drier air moving in with the high pressure so humidity will not be a big issue.  Water and surf conditions will vary by day and location next week.  Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday could see cautious conditions with gusty winds and high seas.  Things should settle by second half of the week.  Next week all depends on the timing and track of Karen, so is subject to and will likely change some.
 
The only concern is Tropical Storm Karen and as soon as this Outlook is complete there I will have a separate post started for TS Karen.

Have a great weekend!

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to mostly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy at night
Precipitation:  0%-20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:     Upper 70’s to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along/on the water
Low:     Low to mid 60’s inland and along/on the water, mid to upper 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:56am
Sunset: 6:33pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mslt sunny to mostly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:     Upper 70’s to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along/on the water
Low:     Low to mid 60’s inland and along/on the water, mid to upper 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  5/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:57am
Sunset: 6:32pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 40/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 68°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming S 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog after midnight with visibility to 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  67°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  69°F
Saturday
Wind:  Variable less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-7 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  S 6-9 knots becoming 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  69°F
Saturday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  66°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)