NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Nov 23-24, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This weekend will see more unsettled weather, although the weather will not be all that bad, but the water conditions will cautious at best.  Saturday and Sunday could see some rain or snow showers across inland Western and Northern NJ.  These will be lower chances with isolated or scattered showers and not anything widespread or organized.  Very cold air will move in behind the cold front on Saturday Night.  High temperatures will be in the low 40’s to low 50’s Saturday and by Sunday highs will only make it into the low to mid 30’s.  Overnight lows will be in the low to upper 20’s both nights with upper teens across northern areas.  Wind chills will easily be in the single digits Sunday Night.  Winds will become blustery out of the west around 10-20 mph with some higher gusts by Saturday Night and continue through Sunday.  Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous with high winds on Saturday and gale force winds by late Saturday early Sunday increasing seas.  Small Craft Advisories have already been issued for Friday Evening and will likely continue through Monday.  Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok and will only get the winds.  Westerly winds will keep the surf normal and wave heights from increasing.  Water temperatures are in the upper 40’s to low 50’s with some low 60’s still offshore.  UV Index will be Low at 2/15.

**BuoyWeather generated forecasts and NWS forecasts are varying some this weekend

High pressure that dominated the area this week will move east and offshore on Thursday Night.  A weak warm front will lift to the north of the area on Friday followed by a cold front moving across the region later Friday Night.  Over the weekend, strong high pressure over the Central Plains will slowly spread eastward and influence our region into Monday.  Low pressure developing over the Southeast States may then affect the Mid Atlantic Region into Tuesday and Wednesday.


The week will be cold and start off dry.  By Tuesday rain and/or snow are possible through Thursday before clearing out for Thanksgiving and then end of the week.  The rain and snow could come via a Nor’Easter. Low Pressure from the south may move off the coast around the southeast and COULD track up along the coast.  The models are all trending this storm, but there is not any agreement on track or intensity at this time.  Highs next week will be in the 30’s to 40’s with lows in the 20’s and 30’s.  This is below average for this time of year and will likely bring the longest stretch of cold temperatures so far.  Water conditions may improve some by Tuesday, but then will all depend on the formation of a storm or not.  Surf and beach conditions look good to ok, except for gusty winds possible and then the possibility of a coastal storm.

Have a great weekend!

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of rain or snow showers (greater chances Western and Northern NJ)
Temperatures
High:     Low 40’s to low 50’s
Low:     Upper 20’s inland, low 30’s for coastal areas, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:50am
Sunset: 4:35pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Fair
Weather2Hunt.com –  37/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-20% chance of rain or snow showers during the day (greater chances across Western and Northern NJ), 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 30’s
Low:     Low 20’s inland, mid 20’s for coastal areas, upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 4:35pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt.com – 30/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 48°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots becoming NW 20-25 knots after midnight 
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots increasing to 25-30 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 40 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  53°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots by the afternoon
Seas:  NE 3-4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots after midnight
Seas:  ESE 4-6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Seas:  NNW 4-7 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 25-30 knots diminishing to 20-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  N 4-7 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  44°F
Saturday
Wind:  WNW 13-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots after midnight with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  56°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots by afternoon
Seas:  NE 2-4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Seas:  NE 4-6 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Seas:  NW 4-7 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 25-30 knots diminishing to 20-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  NW 4-7 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  48°F
[b]Saturday[/b]
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots increasing to 25-30 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots after midnight with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  58-61°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N to NW 15-25 knots
Seas:  NW 4-7 feet at 5 seconds
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 25-35 knots
Seas:  NW 6-11 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N to NW 25-35 knots diminishing to 20-30 knots
Seas:  NW 8-13 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20-30 knots
Seas:  NW 8-13 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI & NYC have issued Gale Warnings effective Saturday Night through Sunday for all coastal waters from Massachusetts to North Carolina including all NJ Bays, Raritan Bay & New York Harbor, Delaware Bay and the Delaware River.

GALE WARNINGS

[ped579]

Who is Gale???

[Pfishingruven]

Who is Gale???

 

[Pfishingruven]

Good afternoon!  Mostly sunny with a mix of clouds becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy and some areas will be mostly clear tonight.  Temperatures are already falling this afternoon, as the highs for day were earlier this morning.  Temperatures are in the 40’s and 30’s and will continue to drop into tonight as an arctic cold front approaches the areas with extremely cold and dry air behind it.  Overnight lows will be in the mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s to low 30’s along coastal areas and low 20’s across northern areas.  Northwestern into Northern NJ will see chances of snow showers tonight with little to no accumulation.  The bigger story will be the winds today, tonight and tomorrow on top of frigid air making for wind chills in the single digits.  West winds will be around 15 mph increasing to 15-25 mph tonight with gusts to 30-40 mph.  Higher winds will be along the coast, with coastal waters in Gale Warnings!

Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous today with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings already in effect for all coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Delaware including all bays, Raritan Bay, New York Harbor, Delaware Bay and the Delaware River.  West winds will decrease some this afternoon before really increasing tonight through Sunday.  Winds to 40 knots with seas to 13 feet on the ocean will be likely.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds 15-20 knots decreasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon with gusts to 25 knots increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet building to 2-3 feet by tonight.  Barnegat Bay will have west-northwest winds around 15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots then 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots with seas around 1-2 feet in places.  Delaware Bay will have northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots tonight with seas 2-3 feet building to 2-4 feet tonight.  Inshore ocean waters will have northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming 20-25 knots this evening then 25-30 knots tonight with gusts to 40 knots with seas 2-4 feet at 9 seconds increasing to 4-6 feet at 4 seconds tonight.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have north to northwest winds 15-20 knots becoming west to northwest increasing to 25-35 knots with gusts to 45 knots tonight with seas 4-7 feet at 7 seconds building to 7-12 feet at 7 seconds tonight.

Surf and beach conditions will be ok bordering on cautious today and tonight.  Winds will be the only big factor with westerly winds keeping the surf down.  West to northwest winds will be 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots increasing to 20-25 knots then 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.  Surf will be normal to a little rougher with wave heights 1-3 feet maybe some 2-4 feet with a 2-4 foot east to west swell at 9 seconds decreasing to 4 seconds.  Although the surf will not be majorly impacted by these winds, higher waves or “rogue” type of waves are possible still with building ocean waters.  Wave heights are averages, so higher waves are possible and probable.  Any areas that do not see the immediate west winds to keep the waves down will see higher than average wave heights.  Be careful and cautious of the ocean and surf this weekend!

Have a great weekend and stay warm!

[Pfishingruven]

Good afternoon!  Cold and very windy today with sun and some clouds.  Some areas, more to the northwest could see some snow flurries.  Current temperatures statewide are sub-freezing so far with wind chills into the teens and 20’s.  Highs will only be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s with temperatures feeling like low 20’s with wind chills.  Overnight lows will be cold again, in the teens to low 20’s inland, low to mid 20’s for coastal areas and around 10 degrees across northern/northwestern parts of the state.  Wind chills will easily be in the single digit and negatives tonight for some places!!  Red Flag Warnings are active across most of the state.  With the very dry air with lower humidity and the winds around 30 mph gusting to 50 mph, conditions are favorable for wildfires that could quickly spread.  There is currently a large fire in Old Bridge and Cheesequake State Park that has a visible smoke plume on radar.  Winds will begin to settle some by tonight inland.

Water conditions are poor to hazardous today with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings for all NJ coastal waters.  Winds are 25-30 knots on average gusting to 45+ knots with seas to 7 feet inshore and 20 feet offshore.  Winds will begin to diminish some this evening through tomorrow, with seas looking to improve rather quickly.

Surf and beach conditions are OK today, actually not bad, except that 30 knot west wind gusting to 45+ knots.  If you can deal with the wind, the surf is clean, calm and with very little waves from the extreme westerly winds.   Today would be the day to power cast as you could clear 100 yards easily with the help of the tailwinds!

Have a great Sunday!  I am still watching this coastal low for Tuesday and Wednesday and will have updates later today or tomorrow.