Here is the run down on the weekend storm. Low pressure from the south will form and move northeast into the area. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will also move east across the Ohio Valley before turning north. These two systems will interact, but right now they will not phase (combine) and intensify one another. This is a good thing. Low pressure from the south will track out over the ocean and along the coast becoming a weak to moderate coastal storm/Nor’Easter with the potential to become a moderate to strong storm. This system will move to the northeast, intensifying along the coast of New England. The low pressure system will bring precipitation to the area starting Friday Night/Overnight, with the bulk of the storm moving on for Saturday Morning and moving out by Sunday Morning, Sunday Afternoon at the latest. Precipitation will start as snow with accumulations anywhere from 0-6 inches possible right now. Precipitation will vary and change from a mix to rain, even freezing rain is possible. Areas to the north/northwest will see temperatures below freezing the longest and will have the most accumulation, while southern areas along the coast, may not see any snow. Warmer temperatures will move in by afternoon and move north through Sunday. Extreme Northwestern NJ may never drop below freezing. As the freezing line moves north, precipitation will change over from snow or a mix to all rain. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunda will range from upper 20’s to mid 40’s. Overnight lows will range from low 20’s to upper 30’s. By Sunday Night, extremely cold air will move in again, behind the storm, bringing all temperatures below freezing. This could pose an ice hazard on roadways and walkways. Winds with this storm will not be much of an issue inland. Inland will have northwest winds 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph. Along the coast and coastal waters will see the gustiest winds with west to northwest winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots with seas 4-6 feet. Small Craft Advisories are likely throughout the weekend. Offshore waters will have winds to 30 knots and seas 6-10 feet. Minor coastal flooding is possible with the most recent tidal data suggesting that tides will run 1-2 feet above normal.
That is about it for now. Saturday will be wet, snowy or somewhere between that and Sunday will begin clearing out. Water conditions will be cautious. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious. Overall, the effects are not drastic from this storm and the mixed precipitation will be the main concern. Forecasts could change some over the next couple of days, but unless phasing and major intensification occur, the overall forecast looks good. Track will play some part with this storm and could bring more or less precipitation depending. Track could also affect temperature profiles. Basically, a more western track could bring more precip, but also warmer temperatures. A more eastern track will bring less precip, but colder temperatures. The images below depict worse case scenario snow and freezing rain probabilities and amounts.
I will have a complete Weekend Outlook later today and will update as needed!
NWS PHI Briefing #1Low Tracks
Total Precipitation
Snow Probability
Freezing Rain Probability
Maximum Snowfall Accumulation Totals
Maximum Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals
Winds & Seas Forecasts
