Tuesday-Wednesday Winter Storm

[Pfishingruven]

Another storm, right on the heels of the one that just exited the state. The entire state will see precipitation. Some areas will see snow, others will see a mix, rain for a bulk of the state or wintry precip changing over to rain and still a chance of some freezing rain for Northwestern NJ right now, but all areas should be aware of the possibility. Areas receiving mainly or just rain will see upwards of an inch of precipitation. This could cause river and stream flooding, as well as localized and poor drainage flooding. Rivers that are ice covered could have ice jam flooding as well. Click the links for River Forecasts and current River Observations.

Here is the NWS PHI Briefing #5


Below are Snowfall Total Forecasts and Ice Accumulation Forecasts. NWS NYC is behind, so Northeastern NJ Counties are missing. This map should be released shortly.

Any updates to follow. The weekend storm looks like a loaded double barrel shotgun, with a strong Winter Storm coming from Northwest and a Coastal Low Pressure System/Nor'Easter that will interact and combine or phase with the other system. This would create a very strong Coastal Storm with higher accumulations of snow. This is very early and the scenario will change several times before the event and it is too early to pin point anything or even talk snowfall amounts. I am sure everyone has seen the talk circulating of the high amounts, which is very plausible. Early talk of 6-12 more inches is possible across the state and that looks conservative, right now. Remember, tomorrow those amounts could go to zero. Winter Storms are complex...more complex than Severe Weather, Tropical Weather or almost any other type of weather. The Pro Mets do their best with what they have, but the models have not and do not handle winter storms as well as needed. So, this is just a heads up for the weekend of the potential for a moderate to very significant winter storm/nor'easter. As always, updates to follow. For now, let's get through tomorrow and Wednesday!

Be safe!

[IrishAyes]

 

[Pfishingruven]

[Still Running]

 

[Pops Soul]

 

[Kenny]

We got 10" of wet snow....2 1/2 hours of shoveling and now we are getting more   

[njbob49]

We got around 8 inches of heavy wet snow in Totowa yesterday. I also think the plow guy is a sadist and enjoys going fast, shooting the snow from the street back onto the sidewalks. He did it twice after I shoveled.  

I just can't wait to see what it looks like when I wake up on Wednesday.  I sure hope they are wrong for the weekend forecast.

I guess it could be worse if you look at these pics.

Tight Lines,
Bob G   

[Pfishingruven]

Some changes to the forecast for tonight's storm. This looks like a much more northern track for snow. HOWEVER, this is now a much more widespread ice storm with ice totals increasing across the state. This system looks like it will move in late tonight, after 10PM, probably closer to midnight, but that will also extend how long it sticks around tomorrow.  Tomorrow morning will be a mess for any areas getting snow and/or ice. Snow is likely to start changing over to a sleet, mix or rain, depending on location.  Hopefully, much of the ice will turn over to rain and melt...that's the hope.  No areas are really safe.  The potential for ice tomorrow morning, statewide is higher. Even coastal areas showing "None" should be alert and cautious to ice.  The last ice storm caused an entire day of chaos, with record number of 911 calls, patients visiting ER's and even deadly accidents. The slightest bit of ice will make dangerous conditions on surfaces. Western & Northwestern areas forecast to get 0.10-0.50 inches of ice accumulation need to be cautious of falling tree limbs and trees and damage to electrical utilities. These amounts of ice accretion, especially upwards of 0.50 inches will pose many hazards and be the biggest issue the state has dealt with this Winter.  The other thing to keep in mind is the potential for flooding with the increase precipitation on top of melting snow and ice today.

Any updates to follow.  I expect a Briefing from the NWS PHI in regards to the ice at some point today.

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing #6

[Hunter 2]

This sucks!    Thanks For the info Matt.

[Pfishingruven]

This sucks!    Thanks For the info Matt.

 

[Still Running]

They are talking ice also. Picked up some extra gas and have the korkers ready.

[Pfishingruven]

...And like that the models have flopped on this storm from less snow to more ice. This is the worst case scenario!! This storm will be a giant mixed mess of wintry precipitation with ice accretion in the 0.1-0.5 inches, widespread with the potential for 0.75 inches! This was my concern from the beginning, as well as my thoughts. This system looked warmer with the ability to support more ice than snow. With that being said, this system is large and has affected a major part of the US over the last couple of days. NWS is recommending to be where you need to be by 10PM, bulk of the storm will come overnight and then into the day. The change over from wintry precipitation to all rain will depend on temperatures. Remember you cannot drive on ice at all! NWS is using this slogan, "Respect the snow, fear the ice!" Luckily winds will be less than 10 knots most of the night with winds picking up in the morning 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Any trees or wires that are still ice covered when winds pickup will pose even more hazards!!

Be safe...updates as necessary!







NWS PHI Briefing #7

[Pfishingruven]

They are talking ice also. Picked up some extra gas and have the korkers ready.

Yes, more of an ice storm than snow !!