Winter Storm/Nor'Easter Sunday Night - Monday

[Pfishingruven]

Don't put the Winter gear away yet !  There is potential for a Winter Storm/Nor'Easter Sunday Night into Monday. The NWS PHI is already issuing Snowfall Forecasts and Briefings for this storm. Anywhere from 2-6 inches are likely with the higher amounts across Central and Southern NJ. This system will be low that enters the Atlantic south of the area and becomes a coastal low/nor'easter. In addition to snow, high winds are possible, coastal water and coastal effects including minor coastal flooding. This does not look like it will be an extremely strong storm, however track and intensity are always changing and very unpredictable (as we all know) with these Winter Nor'Easters.

Updates will follow over the next 48 hours. Models are not in full agreement on this system, however shorter range models are coming into agreement of at least 4 inches with numbers as high as 12-18 inches...which is unlikely right now.

***Those in Northeastern NJ Counties...NWS NYC has not issued any forecasts yet. Going by the models, I would expect the 2-4 inches bordering 4-6 inches on the counties bordering to the south.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #1

[Still Running]

 

[IrishAyes]

 

[Reel McCoy]

This will be the last one, Right 

[Hotrod]

Can someone Ban Matt..

[Reefsquatter]

Looks to be missing us 

[fluke - u]

 ...YES....more snow...Now i will have something to do.....Shovel 

[ped579]

Don't Ban him just take away his computer so he can not type these reports till Spring.

[Pfishingruven]

Can someone Ban Matt..

Bob's good at BANNING !

[Hotrod]

Yea. Don't Pee off bob...

[Pfishingruven]

Things look a little more positive with this storm as the track has shifted quite a bit south in the last 18 hours. This brings most of the snow well south of us. Could it shift back? Yes! While, there is not full model agreement, they all agree that it goes South. This takes the storm farther south and then east-northeast when it gets out to sea. This removes the Nor'Easter component, as the storm goes mostly east out to sea. I will still caution you not to celebrate until later on Monday. There will still be snow possible in the 1-6 inch range with 4-6 inches still possible for Cape May. Temperature and ground heating will play a big part into accumulation after track and intensity. This is March with higher and longer exposure from the sun. Let's see how the models play out this evening and tonight. ...BUT, this is looking good if you DON'T want snow or a lot of snow!

Some coastal involvements are still possible with some gusty winds (similar to today...which have sustained much longer than anticipated) and minor coastal flooding.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing #2

[Pfishingruven]

Yea. Don't Pee off bob...

[Pfishingruven]

Full update to come around 4PM or so...right now nothing has changed, still looking at the highest snow to the south decreasing to the north. Track has come back to the north some, but not much! Central and Southern NJ are still looking at 1-6 inches. High winds, minor coastal flooding and elevated seas/surf are still likely.

More to come as soon as all of the afternoon models/forecasts update...

Thanks,
Matt

[Hotrod]

WTF MATT!!

[Pfishingruven]

Some significant changes in the latest forecast for Central and Southern NJ. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Cape May, Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Atlantic, Eastern Burlington, and Ocean Counties. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for Western Burlington, Monmouth, Mercer, and Middlesex Counties. Small Craft and Gale Warnings have been issued for coastal waters.

Snowfall total forecasts have been increased for all most areas in Central and Southern NJ. Areas in Northern NJ should only see around an inch or less of snow. Anywhere from 2-10 inches for Central and Southern NJ is now forecast as the storm track looks to come back north. Southern NJ could see 6-10 inches with accumulation decreasing to the north. There is a chance of changeover to a mix or rain into the day on Monday, however most of the snow looks to fall overnight. The short range models are the ones indicating this increase in snowfall and show rates around 1/2-1 inch an hour!

Gusty winds inland and high winds along the coast and inshore will accompany this storm. Minor coastal flooding is also possible. High seas and surf and minor beach erosion are likely too. This storm will move off rather quickly, so conditions will begin improving by Tuesday.

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

WTF MATT!!

At least you are not in the worst !

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Winter Storm Briefing #3