NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: May 27-30, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

A short week for most as the unofficial start of Summer began on Monday. Summer-like weather will continue into Tuesday with chances of showers and/or thunderstorms with chances increasing throughout the day into the night. Highs will be in the 80’s, maybe even some 90’s with humid air and lows only in the 60’s overnight. Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue into Wednesday decreasing throughout the day into the night. These storms will begin as scattered to widely scattered becoming more widespread into Tuesday Overnight and possibly lingering into Wednesday Morning. As the cold front moves through, Wednesday’s highs will be Tuesday Nights lows, in the 60’s with overnight lows into the 50’s again and less humidity. Thursday and Friday will be mostly dry, a chance of an isolated or scattered shower or thunderstorm Friday Morning. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to 70’s with overnight lows in the 50’s. Water conditions will be good on Tuesday, on Wednesday and Thursday winds will be border line to Cautious with possible Small Craft Advisories, improving for the remainder of the week. Offshore could see higher winds and seas off and on all week. NWS and BuoyWweather differ some in the forecasts, being so close to SCA criteria, so checking local conditions will be important for the early half of the week. Surf and beach conditions will be good to OK. Tuesday conditions will be good, with winds picking up on Wednesday increasing surf through Thursday and even into Friday. Water temperatures have increased by a few degrees. Rivers and bays are in the 60’s to 70’s. Surf temperatures are in the upper 50’s to low 60’s as well. Ocean waters, inshore and offshore, are in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. UV Index will range from Low to Very High this week depending on cloud coverage.

High pressure will continue to move east, away from the area Sunday Night. A cold front will approach from the North and Northeast on Tuesday and move across the region Late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. Another area of high pressure is anticipated to build down from Eastern Canada Wednesday Night into early Friday. Another cold front will move through the area Friday Night with high pressure returning for the weekend.
  
The weekend looks dry with sunny skies and highs in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s. Water, surf and beach conditions could be border line to Cautious in the mornings with some gusty winds, especially across Southern Areas and Offshore. Winds look to settle for both afternoons, right now.

We are in the progress of National Hurricane Preparedness Week. Please check out the daily postings with valuable hurricane information. It only takes one to cause devastation! Thanks for reading. Have a great week!

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-60% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, low to mid 80’s along the coast
Low:   Low to mid 60’s
UV Index:  4-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:14pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day (greater chances during the day)
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60’s
Low:   Low to mid 50’s inland and along the coast, upper 40’s across the north  
UV Index:  1-6/15 (Low-High)
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:15pm
New Moon: 2:41pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s inland, mid 60’s along the coast
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s inland and along the coast, low 50’s across the north
UV Index:  6-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:16pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% of scattered showers and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper  70’s inland, low to mid 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s inland and along the coast, low 50’s across the north
UV Index:  4-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:17pm


Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation 5 Day



Total Precipitation 7 Day



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  60°F
Tuesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E  10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  Light and variable winds becoming SW around 5 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  60°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 2 to 2 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  59°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: E 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  71°F
Tuesday
Wind:  W 6-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots becoming NNE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  ENE 16 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  ENE 15-18 knots decreasing to 12-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  E 9-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  ESE 5-9 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  Variable 5 knots becoming WSW 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  WSW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  61°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  67°F-70°F
Tuesday
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ASDVISORY
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots late
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  E 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 10 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming  N 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  58°F
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  NE 5 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ENE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: E 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

All updated! Have a great week!

Thanks,
Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Isolated to scattered/widely scattered storms will move into the area by later afternoon. Other storms could initiate within the state as well. With clear skies, currently, and highs expected to be in the mid 80's to low 90's and dew points rising into the 60's today, instability will be moderate. This will only help any storm process. Some storms could become strong to severe with heavy rains, deadly lightning, gusty, damaging winds and hail. As with any severe thunderstorms, they can be capable of tornadoes and can never be ruled out. The chances are low today, at 5% and anywhere from 10%-40% chance of thunderstorms (meaning isolated to scattered).

Keep alert and be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has increased Northern NJ to a Slight Risk with increased risk of damaging winds. Tornado Risks have been raised as well, just north of NJ into NY, so be alert...weather doesn't know boundary lines drawn by meteorologists.

These risks are still low or lower. Modeled radar has storms starting in NNJ between 2-3 PM and by 4 PM for Western NJ and very wideley scattered to even more widespread for the entire state by 5 PM.

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued by the SPC until 12 AM for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean & Salem Counties.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #196 
         
 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   530 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     DELAWARE
     CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
     SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
   NORTHEAST OF TRENTON NEW JERSEY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   DOVER DELAWARE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192...

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND SOME HAIL.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 30030.


   ...MEAD

[Hunter 2]

You must be excited Matt.

[Pfishingruven]

You must be excited Matt.