Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: June 9-13, 2014  (Read 1709 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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An unsettled Spring Week with Summer-like temperatures. This week will bring rain and thunderstorm chances all week. The greatest widespread rain looks to come starting late on Sunday Night into Monday and Monday Night and then again on Friday and Friday Night. Overall, precipitation accumulation is only around 1-2 inches. The remainder of the week will see scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. This will all depend on how much daytime heating leading to instability occurs, as more clouds than sun is forecast, however it won’t be all clouds all the time. Despite seeming extremely wet since this Fall/Winter, many areas of NJ had less than average rainfall amounts for the month of May. NJ is still good in terms of drought, however. High temperatures this week will be in the 70’s and 80’s. Monday will be the coolest with 70’s the highest. Overnight lows will not get out of the 60’s this week, with coastal areas in the upper 60’s most of the week. Humidity will be moderate to high and muggy at times, especially in the overnight hours as lows and dew points near each other with humidities over 90%. Water conditions will start off border-line on Monday with Southern and Offshore waters Cautious, but below SCA criteria. Winds could gust to 20 knots and seas could build 3-4 feet. Inshore waters will improve on Tuesday and through the remainder of the week, while Offshore could see some gustier winds and higher seas on Tuesday linger, before cleaning up for midweek. Surf and beach conditions look good all week, with some gustier winds on Monday and some rougher surf. Wave heights will be in the 1-3 foot range with Low Rip Current Risk at this point. Be alert to thunderstorms which can bring much higher winds and seas than forecast this week. Also, patchy fog is possible along the coast and on the water. Water temperatures have taken a somewhat rapid increase this week. Rivers and bays are in the upper 60’s to mid to upper 70’s in shallower waters. Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Offshore waters have broken the 60’s with low to mid 60’s midshore to offshore. A southern flow may make a brief appearance through midweek, bringing some colder upwelling of waters and potentially dropping temperatures some on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It all depends on how southerly the flow setups or not and by late Wednesday easterlies/east-southeasterly winds look to take control bringing the warmer waters or at least mixing it through late Friday. With water temperatures being so unsettled and vulnerable to change this early in the season, the hard-fast rules of winds and swell don’t always apply. UV Index will range Moderate to Very High at 3-9/15.

A low pressure system in the Ohio Valley will weaken as it moves east Sunday Night and dissipates over DELMARVA late on Monday. A high pressure system will build into New England and Canada during the middle of the week. A warm front associated with a low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley will then pass north of the area late Thursday. This low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes into Canada and bring a cold front into the region on Friday Night. The cold front will move offshore on Saturday followed by high pressure.

The tropics are quiet!

The weekend looks like a continuation of this week, possibly without the threat of showers or thunderstorms. Highs will continue in the 70’s and 80’s with 60’s overnight and humid air. Water, surf and beach conditions look OK to good. Sunday could see some gustier winds and higher seas.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-60% chance of rain and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70’s
Low:   Low to mid 60’s
UV Index:  3-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:23pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to mid 80’s
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:24pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s 
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:24pm


Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s
UV Index:  3-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:25pm


Friday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:25pm
Full Moon: 12:13am


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  65°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  65°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: E 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  65°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: E 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday
Wind:  S 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 9-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SSE 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-8 knots becoming ESE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 7-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  ESE 6-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  ESE 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: E 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  72°F
Monday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  63°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 4 seconds

Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds

Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: E 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface




20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Strong to Potential Severe Thunderstorms Friday
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2014, 11:24:25 AM »
With clouds breaking and the sun starting to make it out across much of the state, there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. This risk looks to be more of a scattered or isolated event, however thunderstorms will likely be widely scattered to more widespread late afternoon into the evening and overnight. Main threat will be heavy rains, deadly lightning and damaging winds. Be alert and be safe!






Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Flooding Potential Friday Afternoon/Evening
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2014, 12:35:06 PM »
With more rain on the way, there is a high potential of flooding in all forms. Flash flooding and river and small stream flooding will be the main risks inland with flash flooding and minor coastal flooding along the coast as well. Tides are running around a foot above normal coupled with heavy rains and coastal areas prone to flooding will likely flood from any storms that move through.

Flash Flood Watches have been issued for Western NJ Counties and neighboring PA Counties, with some Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings posted already in PA. These areas received a lot of rain this week and have a high risk of flooding. Areas in Northern/Northeastern NJ as Flash Flooding Guidance suggests an inch or more of rain for some areas could cause flooding situations.

Remember "Turn Around, Don't Drown" and never travel through flood covered roadways!!

Be safe!
« Last Edit: June 13, 2014, 12:40:52 PM by Pfishingruven »

 

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