OK, I eluded to this in the Week Outlook and I've waited until all of the uncertainty and back and forth snow totals have waned to a more substantial and solid forecast. Regardless, this forecast will continue to go back and forth and a difference of 100 miles on the track could change the entire scenario. So, with that everyone within the state should be prepared for the results of a moderate coastal low/Nor'Easter.
Timing will begin as early as Tuesday Night with rain/snow moving in. This will continue into Wednesday and the bulk of any precipitation will occur Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night lingering into Thanksgiving Day. This is probably the worst timing possible for a storm with the increased travel due to the holidays.
The bulk of any accumulating snow will remain north and west of the I95 Corridor with the highest accumulations in Northwestern and Northern NJ and then to the northeast into New England. Areas around the I95 Corridor will likely see a mix with accumulations around an inch or less. Areas south and east of I95 will see rain and a wintry mix, with little accumulation of snow, however roads won't be any better in these areas! Winds will be gusty, in excess of 30 mph. Seas and surf will increase. Coastal effects will be minor with only "spotty" minor coastal flooding expected right now. Tides are running around a foot to a foot and a half higher than normal, which is still below High Astronomical Tide levels.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Warren, Sussex, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union and Passaic Counties in NJ. Winter Storm Warnings are likely in most of these areas at some point today. Gale Warnings are in effect for all adjacent coastal waters except Raritan Bay and Upper Delaware Bay which are under Small Craft Advisories.
Updates to follow, with new briefings around 3:30 PM today.
If you can leave today/now if you are traveling do so, otherwise expect delays and cancellations!
Be safe and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdfProbability of Snow 1 Inch or Greater
Probability of Snow 6 Inches
Storm Track
Snowfall Totals
