Nor'Easter Monday/Tuesday December 8-9, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

A moderate to strong coastal low is forecast to form off of the Southeast Coast and move northeast, merging with another system just south of the NJ area. This forecast is very uncertain and with an uncertain track and intensity, it is hard to pinpoint accurate effects. As the forecast stands now, which will change, the majority of NJ will see mainly rain with the possibility of a wintry mix and accumulation of snow of less than an inch. Areas in the northwest could see up to 3 inches at most right now. Snow accumulation looks to be elevation dependent. Any snow that does fall will be wet and heavy. Only a few inches could bring down trees and powerlines. Rain will be heavy with upwards of 2-3 inches. Inland river and localized flooding in very possible. Make sure storm drains are clear of leaves and debris, otherwise areas that do not normally flood, could easily flood! Other effects will be winds in excess of 40 knots, minor coastal and tidal flooding, rough and high surf, high seas, and beach erosion. Tides are forecast to be 2-3 feet above normal and about a foot above High Astronomical Tide. Areas along the coast, along the Delaware Bay and River and Raritan Bay that are prone to flooding will likely see some minor to even moderate flooding!

This forecast is almost guaranteed to change over the next 24-36 hours or until the models show some more certainty on this system. Updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing Dec 8-9 Nor'Easter

[Still Running]

 

[Capt. Carl]

More great news Matt! 

[Pfishingruven]

More great news Matt! 

Always !

[Pfishingruven]

I'm am going to forego the Outlook for right now to focus more on the Nor'Easter, as it will be impacting the entire Mid Atlantic and Northeast over the next two days. Forecasts are very skewed for the remainder of the week with the storm system affecting the region.

The track is more certain and will be taking a path closer to the coast and inland heading right at Long Island. This only changes forecasts slightly. Rain for most of the state possibly changing over to snow for the northern/northwestern portions of NJ. Other areas will see a mix of wintry precipitation with some minor accumulations. Rain totals could be in excess of 2 inches causing localized and inland flooding. Winds will be 25-30 knots with 40+ knots possible, especially along the coast. Moderate coastal flooding is likely. Rough and high surf, high seas and beach erosion will occur as well.

Winter Storm Watches are posted for just northwest of the state. Coastal Flood Watches & Advisories, Gale Warnings, Storm Watches, and Small Craft Advisories have all been posted for the state. There are too many to list individually!

The week overall looks wet, with rain definite on Monday and Tuesday and likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 30's and 40's with lows in the 20's and 30's. Water, surf and beach conditions will be hazardous, then cautious for most of the week. End of the week/Friday may see some improving conditions going into the weekend. The weekend, right now, looks dry and 40's and 50's with better water conditions. I know the Member Tog Trip will be dependent on good weather for Saturday and so far...it doesn't look too bad!

More updates to follow, however tomorrow will have deteriorating conditions into the overnight and into Tuesday. Be safe!

State Advisories, Watches & Warnings

NWS PHI Advisories, Watches & Warnings

NWS PHI Briefing #2

NWS NYC Briefing #1

[Hunter 2]

Thanks for the info Matt.

[Eng 94]

Thanks for the report, I just got off the phone with my Daughter who is trailing from N Carolina to see us so I gave here and her husband a heads up on the weather. Sounds like later today is going to be a bust. Glad I came on site and read this, I only 500' from the inland Manasquan River and it has crested over the bridge here a few times. When Irene hit us it came within 50' of the backside of our property and flooded out our neighbor. Hope this one isn't that bad. 

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks for the report, I just got off the phone with my Daughter who is trailing from N Carolina to see us so I gave here and her husband a heads up on the weather. Sounds like later today is going to be a bust. Glad I came on site and read this, I only 500' from the inland Manasquan River and it has crested over the bridge here a few times. When Irene hit us it came within 50' of the backside of our property and flooded out our neighbor. Hope this one isn't that bad. 

This won't be anywhere near as bad as Irene...a pretty typical moderate Nor'Easter. Tides are right on forecast today, coming in just above High Astronomical Tide (HAT). So, areas that flood with full moons and when a hard east wind blows will definitely have some moderate flooding over the next couple of days. There will also be significant rain, upwards of 3 inches possible locally. Road conditions are going to be a mess with a constant changing mix and at times heavy rains. It will really depend on the banding of precipitation.

Any other questions, feel free to get in touch with me. Safe travels for your daughter and be safe at home!

[Eng 94]

Thanks Pfishinggruven. How soon are we to expect the rain today. I in Monmouth CO. Farmingdale area.

[Eng 94]

We are experiencing light snow here in the Farmingdale Adelphia area. 10:15AM

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Pfishinggruven. How soon are we to expect the rain today. I in Monmouth CO. Farmingdale area.

This precipitation is just the pre-show. There will be scattered showers throughout the day with the bulk of the tonight and Tuesday. Rain will continue through Tuesday Night then back to scattered showers for Tuesday Night into Wednesday and even Thursday Day before clearing out for Thursday Night then through the weekend.

Water is already over the wall at MI. About 2 feet until it spills over into the parking lot on the PP side. Some of he waves are actually breaking into the parking lot.

[wb]

I hope the effin fan blows out by SaturYAY 

[Pfishingruven]

I hope the effin fan blows out by SaturYAY 

Saturday does not look bad at all...

[Eng 94]

Thanks Pfishinggruven. How soon are we to expect the rain today. I in Monmouth CO. Farmingdale area.

This precipitation is just the pre-show. There will be scattered showers throughout the day with the bulk of the tonight and Tuesday. Rain will continue through Tuesday Night then back to scattered showers for Tuesday Night into Wednesday and even Thursday Day before clearing out for Thursday Night then through the weekend.

Water is already over the wall at MI. About 2 feet until it spills over into the parking lot on the PP side. Some of he waves are actually breaking into the parking lot.

Still snow flurries here. How is the fishing in the PP parking lot??  

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest briefing from NWS PHI. Inland Flood Watches, Winter Weather Advisories for Northwestern NJ, Coastal Flood Warnings, Wind Advisories and Gale Warnings on the water have all been issued ahead of this storm.

Forecast is mostly unchanged.

Be safe!!

NWS PHI Briefing #3

[Eng 94]

Still raining here with some flooding the Manasquan has crested over the bridge on Havens Bridge Rd. here in Howell,not enough to stop travel.

Not a day for joy riding unless your

[Pfishingruven]

Coastal Flooding has reached moderate levels in Cape May with around 2.5 feet of storm surge. Surge approaching 3.5 feet will bring major coastal flooding. This current high tide should be the worst and tonight's could be problematic too, however winds should shift out of the northwest as the backside of the storm loops around.

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

If you or someone you know live near a river, that is prone to flooding, keep an eye on the forecasts and current conditions. A few rivers are at minor flood stage already and several are nearing flood stage. River gauges and forecasts can be viewed at NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center .

Be safe!!