NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Jan 5-9, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled weak with some snow chances, a blast of Arctic air and mostly cautious to hazardous water conditions. Monday will be mostly dry with a very low chance of snow showers mainly across northern areas. Monday will have a mix of sun and clouds with clouds increasing into Monday Night. Temperatures will be falling throughout the day, with the daily high most likely around midnight. Low temperatures will fall into the teens and 20’s by Monday Night. Monday will be windy as well and wind chills will make it feel even colder. Tuesday will have a clipper system moving through the region. It will be cloudy with chances of accumulating snow. Right now (very dependent on track and intensity) snow accumulations will be in the 1-3 inch range, max, with areas in Southern NJ possibly not seeing any accumulation and areas in Northern NJ seeing the greatest to max of 3 inches. These numbers will likely change and can go either way. However, a shift in track and intensity is leaning more towards a bigger winter storm with more snow than less snow. Wednesday will see some lingering flurries and snow showers as the system moves out. A mix of sun and clouds with clearing conditions into Wednesday Night. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20’s and 30’s with lows in the teens and 20’s. By Wednesday Night temperatures will drop into the single digits and even negative temperatures with windy conditions. Wind chills will feel even colder in the negatives as well. Thursday and Friday will be mostly dry, an isolated snow shower or flurries are possible. Highs will be in the 20’s and 30’s with lows in the teens and 20’s. Tonight is the time to secure any objects that could blow around or are temperature sensitive. Bringing in temperature sensitive plants and any animals will be important this week, as well as making sure the elderly and young are not overcome by the severe cold! Now, is also the time to review Winter Weather Preparedness. Water conditions will be mostly cautious to hazardous this week. Monday will have Hazardous Conditions with Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories for all marine waters. Winds will gust to 50 mph and seas will increase to 8 feet. Tuesday will have the only borderline to good conditions, with cautious to hazardous conditions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Surf and beach conditions will be the same, with cautious to hazardous conditions every day, except for Tuesday. Water temperatures are steady, but will see a drop this week. UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.

A low pressure system will move through the St Lawrence Valley on Sunday Night, as a strong cold front moves through the region as well. A high pressure system will briefly build in from the west on Monday. An Alberta Clipper is expected to move through the area on Tuesday. An Artic High Pressure System will build into the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will move through the Northeast on Friday. Another, less intense Arctic High Pressure System should then return for next weekend.

The weekend looks dry with temperatures climbing into the mid 30’s to low 40’s with overnight lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will start off cautious on Saturday and begin improving, hopefully throughout the day and into Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Sunny with increasing clouds, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0-20% chance of snow showers at night mainly across northern areas
Temperatures
High:    Mid 30’s to low 40’s with low 30’s northern areas (temperatures will fall throughout the day, highs will be highest closest to midnight)
Low:   Low 20’s inland, mid 20’s along the coast, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 4:44pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-70% chance of snow during the day, 0%-20% chance of snow at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 20’s to mid 30’s with mid 20’s northern areas
Low:   Low 20’s inland, mid 20’s along the coast, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 4:45pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  Slight chance of flurries during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:    Upper 20’s to low 30’s with low 20’s northern areas
Low:   Low 5’s inland, mid teens along the coast, 0’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 4:46pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper teens to mid 20’s
Low:   Mid teens inland, upper teens to low 20’s along the coast, low teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 4:47pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  Chance of flurries during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 20’s to mid 30’s
Low:   Upper teens inland, low to mid 20’s along the coast, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 4:48pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Winter Storm/Clipper Track




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots becoming NW 20-25 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots diminishing to 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  W 3 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon\
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:   2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  WNW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  WSW 5 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  45°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  W 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  N 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  39°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  WNW 20-22 knots with gusts to 31 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 14-17 knots decreasing to 9-12 knots after midnight with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SW 5-9 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 10-13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  WNW 13-18 knots increasing to 19-24 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 32 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 23 knots with gusts to 31 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 17-20 knots decreasing to 14-17 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 27 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 11-14 knots increasing to 14-17 knots after midnight with gusts to 24 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  45°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 29 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 27 to 36 knots
Seas:  WNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  SSW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  41°F-45°F
Monday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Monday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots late
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SW late morning
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 20-25 knots becoming NW 25-30 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  3-5 feet building to 5-6 feet in the afternoon
Surf:  2-4 feet, then 4-6 feet
Wednesday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 25-30 with gusts to 40 knots
Seas:  5-6 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20-25 knots becoming W 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots becoming SW 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  55°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  S 9 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  WNW 8 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  W 6 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  W 8 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  NW 8 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  SW 8 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  SW 11 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt, good thing I took down all the outdoor Xmas lights yesterday.

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Matt, good thing I took down all the outdoor Xmas lights yesterday.

Great day for undecorating...

[Pfishingruven]

The Clipper will track a little further south than forecast yesterday. This will bring some higher snow totals to Southern areas of the state more than Northern areas. Still, it is looking like a 1-3 inch event. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for all Counties SOUTH of Monmouth and Mercer Counties. Timing looks to be in the morning and during the morning commute, lingering throughout the day. This could make for dangerous road conditions all day, especially with temperatures remaining below freezing. This is certainly not a major Winter Storm, but still be safe and be careful driving tomorrow.

Below are storm track maps and snowfall totals. The first maps are forecasts and the following maps are minimums and maximums based on models and probabilities. For further Winter Weather information visit the NWS Philadelphia or New York City.

NWS PHI Winter Weather

NWS NYC Winter Weather

Snowfall Totals




Snowfall Minimums




Snowfall Maximums




Clipper Storm Track

[Pfishingruven]

Snow showers, some heavy at times, will occur Friday during the day. Accumulations will be an inch or less, but will make surfaces slick. Any clouds should clear out for Friday Night. Another cold and windy day, but likely one of the warmest this week with highs into the 30's, some areas will see upper 30's with lows back into the teens. Wind will be significant with gusts over 30 mph, making wind chills in the 20's and even teens.

Be safe and stay warm!