NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Jan 17-18, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A mix of weather and water conditions this weekend. Saturday will be dry with rain and snow moving in on Sunday with a coastal low. The low/Nor’Easter looks to be in the developmental phase along our coast and should bring minimal effects, including rain and possibly snow, gusty winds, high seas, higher tides, coastal flooding and beach erosion. Right now, all of these effects will be on the low/minor end with decent precipitation. The position and track of the storm are not concrete yet. Yesterday’s model had the storm mostly off the coast and into New England, but today the models are bringing it right along the coast. This will change between now and Sunday, however, either way rain/snow/mix is pretty definite for Sunday. This will be something to watch to determine track, intensity, rain vs. snow and to what extent other effects will be felt. High temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Water conditions will be mixed from good to borderline to cautious. Saturday will be good to borderline early becoming cautious with most waters cautious on Sunday. Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok, bordering on cautious on Sunday depending on how much Nor’Easter involvement. Saturday will be good with 1-3 and 2-4 foot waves and some gustier winds. Sunday will have gustier winds, rougher surf and higher seas at 2-4 and 3-5 feet. Water temperatures are steady in the 30’s and 40’s with 50’s offshore. UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.

An area of low pressure will move across Southeast Canada on Thursday Night into Friday bringing a cold front across the area on Friday. High pressure will build across the Northeast on Friday Night into Saturday, then move offshore Saturday Night.  A coastal low will develop Sunday and move northward Sunday Night into early Monday, combining with another low moving through Southern Canada. A cold front may cross the area on Monday. A clipper may affect the area during the middle of next week.

Next week will start off on the tail end of the Nor’Easter clearing out at some point during the day. A clipper bringing potential snow is possible midweek  before clearing out for the end of the week. Highs will be in the 30’s and 40’s with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look cautious for Monday and then Thursday and Friday again with increased winds and seas.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading! Stay tuned for updates on the coastal low/Nor’Easter.

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny then partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:     Mid 20’s to low 30’s
Low:     Mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s to low 30’s along the coast, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:57pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  60%-70% chance of precipitation (rain/snow/mix) all day
Temperatures
High:     Low to upper 40’s
Low:     Low 30’s inland, mid 30’s along the coast, upper 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:58pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less , then 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):   1-3 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  43°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  35°F
Saturday
Wind:  NNW 5-9 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 10-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 11-14 knots decreasing to 7-10 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming WNW 9-14 knots in the evening with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  42°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: N 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: N 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  36°F
Saturday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  54°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  NW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

Thankyou Matt.   The top graph is great.

[Reel McCoy]

 

[Pfishingruven]

A developing coastal low pressure system will develop into a Nor'Easter off of the NJ Coast on Sunday and begin moving North-Northeast into NY, CT and New England. The Nor'Easter component of this storm looks short lived, as it will exit the Atlantic crossing Long Island and continue to move more north than northeast before turning slightly easterly over Maine and into Atlantic Canada/Canadian Maritimes. This is a slightly odd track for a coastal low, however strong high pressure that is currently over the area today, will slowly move out to sea. This high pressure will force the low north and allow it to combine with another low pressure system currently approaching the Upper Great Lakes Region. If/when these two lows combine, a much stronger, colder and wetter system will affect New England bringing several inches to a foot of snow to that region. This will be a more late Sunday into Monday event, however it will still rain almost all day on Sunday!

For this area, it will mainly be a rain event with some gusty winds. Rain amounts could be over an inch or more locally and could cause some localized flooding. Some areas could see a mix of wintry precipitation or even some snow. Areas in the north/northeast portion of the state could see trace accumulations of ice from freezing rain. This is probably the worst this storm will bring. Any amount of ice will make for slick and dangerous surfaces! Worst case scenario brings 1-2 inches of accumulating snow to the northern part of the state, with no accumulation likely at this point. Coastal flooding is not expected, however coastal areas that normally flood with heavy rains and some slightly above normal tides should expect the normal flooding. Tides should be normal statewide, however, actual tides are running around 0.5 feet above predictions. This does not fall into any type of coastal flood risk, however, you know the areas that flood normally, so any higher tide or heavy rains will cause these areas to be wetter than normal. Water, surf and beach conditions will be Cautious to Hazardous on Sunday and into Monday with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday. Winds could gust to 30+ mph with seas to 8 feet inshore and 12 feet offshore.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track

[Pfishingruven]

After a day of freezing rain, heavy rains and even thunderstorms across the state tonight brings flood issues and icing. Temperatures will quickly drop below freezing, so any water remaining on surfaces will freeze and any additional showers could become freezing rain. Many rivers and streams are near or over flood stage. If you reside near an inland/river flooding risk, make sure you check the status of that water at Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. Surfaces could be icy in the morning as well until temperatures rise above freezing and any ice melts!

Be safe!