Winter Storm Sunday-Monday-Tuesday/Nor'Easter

[Pfishingruven]

As the midnight models come in they continue to paint a major Winter Storm for the Northeast, including most of the state. As the low comes out of Canada/Upper Great Lakes it dips down much farther south than previous forecasts depicted, picking up moisture in the South. As it moves east, chances of snow are possible starting as early as Sunday Night. The low will then exit into the Atlantic where it is forecast to intensify and track enough off the coast that the region sees all snow, but still close enough to bring large amounts of snow. The storm could stall off the coast or at minimum will be a slower mover, allowing the accumulation to occur. The bulk of the storm looks like it will take place later/late Monday into Tuesday Morning, now.

Snow totals will increase from south to northeast, with coastal areas seeing 10-24+ inches of accumulation. Northern and Northwestern NJ were safe earlier today, but as it stands now, there is a high possibility of large snows. Official forecasts are extremely conservative and have not been updated. Worst case scenarios/maximums are even on the low side when considering the various model outputs tonight, which have all trended snowier, colder and stronger. These forecasts always change, so updates tomorrow will be crucial in final calls before the snow starts falling. As everyone knows, I don't always like to concentrate on set numbers, rather the impact and if this is going to be minor, moderate or major. As of tonight, this is a major Winter Storm with possibilities of accompanied high winds, creating blizzard conditions. Behind this system, frigid air will move in as well, with lows down into the single digits possible and wind chills below zero. Should I mention the possibility of another system on Thursday/Friday?!

Below are official forecasts, briefings and graphics:

NWS Briefing

Snowfall Totals Forecast




Maximum Forecast Totals




Storm Tracks




Models

[Pfishingruven]

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for all Counties served by NWS PHI. PHI has also updated their Snowfall Total Forecast. I expect NWS NYC to follow soon. These are the snow amounts I was referencing earlier for Monday Late into Tuesday. These amounts could really be on the conservative side as well!

Be safe!

[IrishAyes]

So, what you are saying is...Saturday was a teaser. 

[Hotrod]

Uh Boy...

[Pfishingruven]

So, what you are saying is...Saturday was a teaser. 

 

[Pfishingruven]

No big changes right now...update to come around 4:30 PM today give or take. Blizzard Watches issued for Eastern NJ Counties from Ocean County north into NYC. Storm Watches and Storm Warnings have been issued for Atlantic Ocean Waters with Gale Warnings for inshore coastal waters.

Stay tuned...

[Pfishingruven]

Well, many (including myself) are not going to like this! However, if you like snow and being snowed in, this forecast is for you.

Not many changes, except some increased snowfall totals. Winter Storm Warnings, Blizzard Warnings and Storm Warnings (for marine waters) have been issued. Here is the run down. A clipper will move southeast out of the Upper Great Lakes/Canada moving into the region at some point tonight. This will bring round 1 of snow to the state. This could be in the form of rain to a mix or snow, with accumulations around an inch to a few inches max. A mix with ice or any unforecasted freezing rain or icing will be worse than any snow that will fall. Round 2 will begin by Monday Afternoon with the heaviest snow later on Monday into Monday Night and Tuesday. Round 2 will consist of the clipper low pressure system getting out over the ocean and transitioning into a coastal storm. Here, rapid intensification will occur and a very slow moving system will gradually move northeast. Round 2 will have these massive amounts of snow accumulation and blizzard conditions, as well as very cold air behind the system moving in. Round 2 could be prolonged and last up to 36 hours or a little more! Statewide snowfall totals are coming in from 10-36 inches of accumulation. Monmouth and Middlesex Counties look to be the jackpot with the 36 inches possible. Maximum totals could easily extend from 24-48 inches if there is any over-performance or extra stalling by this system.

In addition to snow, this is a very strong Nor'Easter with central pressures approaching 980 mb off of the NJ Coast. This is equal to a weak to moderate hurricane. There will be high winds to 50+ mph along the coast, moderate coastal flooding with surge and tides running 3 feet above normal and a foot over High Astronomical Tides (HAT), high and rough surf and beach erosion.

This is a MAJOR Winter Storm! With snowfall totals in these amounts statewide we can anticipate a State of Emergency and possibly travel restrictions. It will be unlikely that you will be able to travel by later Monday and almost certain by Tuesday. Even if roads are passable, white out conditions from blowing snow will happen. Streets could go unplowed for several days, so plan accordingly. Also, being stranded on the highway, stuck in snow, is extremely dangerous and could be deadly. Make your plan now and stick with it. Loss of electricity is possible, especially in coastal areas that see high winds and wetter/heavier snow.

Be safe and hope for a busted forecast ! Any pertinent updates to follow.

NWS PHI Briefing

NWS NYC Briefing

Storm Track




Forecast Snowfall Totals




Snow Minimums




Snow Maximums

[Eng 94]

Right now any way you look at it, it's going to be a bad one. I can't put a lot of stock on weather reports considering there track record. Looking at the map however it doesn't look good if everything comes together as predicted. SNOW PLOW IS ON!! chains & weights are the order of the day. . Did I mention, I hate this crap!!! The only good side of this, for me is. I don't have to go to work RETIREMENT YES!

[IrishAyes]

The only good side of this, for me is. I don't have to go to work Grin RETIREMENT YES! thumbsup2

Irish Ayes Dictionary:

RETIREMENT - Noun - Meaning - Every day is Saturday. 

[Hunter 2]

I've got to get the milk and Bread!   Beer too!

[Eng 94]

I've got to get the milk and Bread!   Beer too!

Wife and I went to Shop Rite in Freehold yesterday at 2:30pm The place was a complete madhouse. My wife was actually trying to do regular shopping...BAD IDEA! She told me that the storm was all that the people were talking about. Why do people panic whenever there is snow coming? Guess there will be a rush on all the banks for cash too. Better get our azzes there before the money runs out.

[Bucktail]

It's better to have the stuff you need than not if you're going to be stuck inside for a few days.  Especially if they call a State of Emergency and restrict the roads to "essential" people only.

By the way, I was in my Shoprite this morning and it was very well stocked.

[Salty Dog]

Let us not lose sight of the fact that when the TV forecaster's were calling for 1"-3" or 4" to 6" ,it was Our very own resident meteorologist "Matt" ,was calling for 12" plus .Hats off to Matt .

[Eng 94]

Shop Rites are usually pretty well stocked. State of emergency ???Hmmmm. Isn't food included in a state of emergency?

Matt Great call Bro.

[BigAl13]

That's because Matt hits you with the $ hit not the shovel

[Pfishingruven]

Thank you!

Things are pretty much unchanged and at this point it is past forecast and becomes a nowcast. Some of the models last night and even this morning went east with the storm bringing snowfall totals down some...but still a major storm. Coastal NJ from Ocean County north and Northeastern NJ were still in for excessive snowfall. Other models, stuck with their initial solutions of track, intensity and snowfall. If you follow the trend, the models that have stuck with their solution are historically more correct. These flopping models have a history of going back and forth and ultimately ending up back where they started. What this means...a major snowstorm no matter how you play the cards!

The center of low pressure has exited the Carolinas and is over the Atlantic. It appears to me, that the low is west of the forecast track (which was updated this morning and went farther east). This would be on track with the initial solutions and would bring the big storm being talked about. Current pressures are already a few mb lower than forecast as well and the storm is beginning to get an almost tropical like eye separating the cold and warm sectors, barely noticeable on satellite. This indicates a strengthening, which was anticipated. Watching these surface analyses and satellite images over the next few hours will really determine the storm, however the storm will be upon us by then! So, it is a "get what you get" kind of catch 22.

Wind gusts have already picked up along the coast out of the northeast. Snow is falling ahead of the storm in many areas. Temperatures will be dropping and most areas are already below freezing. Air aloft will also become colder supporting higher conversions of water to snow. Only some coastal areas and some southern locations have surface temperatures above freezing still. What I haven't mentioned is the 20 foot swells for the ocean waters with 6-8 foot wind waves on top of that !

Here are the latest briefings. Any major changes, I will forward them along. Still working on the Outlook in between following this storm.

Thanks again!!

NWS PHI Briefing

NWS NYC Briefing

[Hotrod]

 

[youtube=640,390]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nWltlKn2vc&x-yt-cl=84503534&x-yt-ts=1421914688[/youtube]

[Eng 94]

HotRod: that is the best...

[Pfishingruven]

 

[Pfishingruven]

In addition to the State of Emergency an Emergency Travel Ban has been signed into affect starting at 11 PM tonight (Monday January 26, 2015)!

Travel Ban