Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: March 9-13, 2015  (Read 2411 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Longer days, some warming temperatures, but still the possibility of some wintry weather. Water conditions will be good inshore with an all “green” forecast. There is a definite pattern change in process/pending from what has dominated the last 2 months. Despite warmer temperatures, sun will not be dominant this week with precipitation and even wintry precipitation sticking around. Monday will start with chances of wintry mix, freezing rain and/or snow early in the day, gradually clearing into the night. Tuesday will bring more precipitation with rain, mix and/or snow all day. Snow should be confined to Western and Northern NJ and accumulations will be minimal (0-less than an inch). Other areas could see a mix to rain. Wednesday will see rain chances for most of the state, however highest chances for Southern NJ and chances increase from north to south. Thursday looks dry and mostly clear and Friday Day the same before rain/snow chances move in for Friday Night and into the weekend. Highs will be in the 40’s and 50’s with lows only in the 20’s and 30’s this week. Despite warmer temperatures this week, certain times may be conducive to snow or a wintry mix, even freezing rain, as the ground has not warmed yet. Water conditions inshore look good all week. Monday and Friday could be borderline or see some gustier winds, but overall not headlines or banners this week. Offshore will start off borderline, then good, then borderline and finishing the week out cautious with Small Craft Advisories. Surf conditions will be good all week with low to moderate winds and normal surf at 1-3 feet. Water temperatures have warmed a couple of degrees, but are still in the 30’s and 40’s. UV Index will range from Low to Moderate at 2-4/15.

A weak trough will cross the region on Sunday Night. High pressure will then build north over the region on late Monday. A very slow moving cold front will move over the region on late Tuesday into early Wednesday. More high pressure will build in by Thursday. Another low will lift north by next weekend.

The weekend looks wet with chances of rain and snow. Highs will be in the 40’s with overnight lows in the upper 20’s and 30’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look borderline to cautious this weekend, influenced by a moving cold front.

Have a great week and thanks for reading! Sorry about the technical difficulties this weekend. I was, luckily, able to limp through the week outlook after reformatting this laptop. My new computer is ordered and should be here in a few days. Spring is close…we just have to deal with this transitional period/end of winter!
Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy gradually clearing to partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance wintry mix, freezing rain, and/or rain during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 50’s with mid 40’s across northern areas
Low:   Low 30’s inland, mid 30’s along the coast, mid 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 6:56pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-70% chance of rain/snow/mix (snow will be mainly for Western and Northern) all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 40’s to low 50’s
Low:   Mid to upper 30’s inland and along the coast, low 30’s across northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 6:57pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-60% chance of rain during the day (mainly Central and Southern NJ increasing to the South), 0%-30% chance of rain (increasing chances to the south) at night
Temperatures
High:    Mid 40’s to low 50’s
Low:   Low 30’s inland, mid 30’s along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 6:58pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 40’s
Low:   Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast, mid 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 6:59pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 40%-50% chance of rain/snow at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 40’s
Low:   Low to mid 30’s
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:12am
Sunset: 7:00pm
Last Qtr: 1:49pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  30°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  30°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  WSW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  WSW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SW 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  WSW 1 feet at 2 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 0 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  NNE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  34°F
Monday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming W 5-8 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 5-8 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 5-7 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  36°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  31°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming NW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the evening
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:   1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Winds:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  WSW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  WSW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 6 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Freezing Rain Threat for Monday
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2015, 06:13:01 PM »
Here is a graphic of the freezing rain threat for Monday. This could make for dangerous surfaces!


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Friday Night Rain/Wintry Precipitation
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2015, 05:40:13 PM »
Rain will begin tonight and may start as wintry precipitation and freezing rain across Northern NJ. Ice accumulations of 0.01 inches are possible and/or less than an inch of accumulating snow. Eventually, any wintry mix will change over to all rain. This wintry mix and ice will make for hazardous surfaces.

Be safe!

 

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