NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Mar 16-20, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Winter still wants to return this week and overall water conditions average to cautious to hazardous. Monday day will be dry and some sun with the potential for showers beginning overnight. Tuesday will continue showers, which should move out by Wednesday Morning. Wednesday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Thursday Day will be dry and a mix of sun and clouds with showers possible Thursday Night. Friday will bring chances of rain and/or snow. Tuesday is the only day that looks like more organized showers and they may still be scattered. So, the other days will see isolated to scattered showers. Friday/Friday Night potential for accumulating snow exists and will be something to keep an eye on. Unfortunately, the warm air from last week has retreated and cold air from Canada has returned. Highs this week will range from the 30’s to the 50’s with overnight lows from the teens to 30’s. Water conditions are all over the place. Monday could see some good  to borderline conditions and bays and rivers could see good conditions on Thursday and Friday. The rest of the week and other locations will see borderline to even hazardous water conditions this week! Surf conditions will echo water conditions as gusty winds and some higher surf is likely. Surf heights do not look bad, peaking at 2-4 feet, maybe some 3-5 footers as well. Gusty winds appear to be the worst for the beach this week. Water temperatures are steady, but warmer than last week. Most waters are in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s. UV Index will range from Low to Moderate at 0-5/15.

A high pressure system over the Ohio River Valley will move into the Southeast Sunday Night and Monday. A cold front will slowly drop south through the area Monday Night into Tuesday. A Canadian High Pressure System will then build into the area on Wednesday and Wednesday Night. The high pressure system is expected to move offshore on Thursday. A low pressure system from the Southern Plains is forecast to move east and pass off the DELMARVA Peninsula on Friday. A cold front should then move through the region from the Great Lakes late on Saturday with another Canadian High Pressure System building into the Northeast next Sunday.

Saturday will have the potential for lingering snow and rain, hopefully clearing out by Saturday Night and clear and dry on Sunday. Highs will be in the 40’s with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be good on Saturday and cautious on Sunday with gusty winds and building seas/surf.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of scattered showers at night
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 50’s
Low:   Mid to upper 40’s inland and along the coast, upper 30’s across northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 7:03pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear and windy
Precipitation:  20%-50% chance of scattered showers during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 40’s to mid 50’s
Low:   Mid to upper 20’s inland, low 30’s along the coast, low 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  0-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 7:04pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, windy during the day
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s along the coast, mid teens across northern areas
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:04am
Sunset: 7:05pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of scattered showers
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 40’s
Low:   Low 30’s inland, mid 30’s along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:03am
Sunset: 7:06pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of rain and snow all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 40’s
Low:   Low 30’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:01am
Sunset: 7:07pm
New Moon: 5:37am


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  39°F
Monday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming N in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm morning
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  39°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SW 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  W 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  W 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  WNW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  WNW 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  WNW 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 0 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ENE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ENE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  NNW 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ENE 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 2 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  40°F
Monday
Wind:  WNW 6-8 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 6-9 knots increasing to 11-14 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 21 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 16 knots with gusts to 24 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 17-19 knots with gusts to 27 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 9-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 6-8 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 6-8 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming N
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming NW
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ENE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  NNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  N 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ENE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  35°F-40°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the evening
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, then NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots late
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Winds: NW 5 knots becoming S in the evening
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming SE  after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  NW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  NNW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  NW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 20 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 3 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

I can't believe I am typing a forecast for snow for the first day of Spring!! I actually do not completely believe the models for several reasons: First, they have been horrible with Winter weather this year. It was difficult at the height of Winter with cold air in place to get a decent storm, let along a Nor'Easter. The models have been extremely inconsistent with this system and the amount of snow. Lastly, the sun is much higher in the sky, grounds are warming and getting the right conditions could be a challenge for our area at this time of the year. With this being said, the forecast is for a low pressure system to track from the Southeast, up the coast bringing a coastal low/Nor'Easter to the area Thursday Night and Friday with lingering precipitation on Saturday during the day.

The official forecast is calling for less than an inch of accumulation and a snow/mix/rain event south and east of the I-95 Corridor (roughly). Areas north and west of the I-95 Corridor could see anywhere from 1 inch to 6 inches for Northwestern NJ. The track and intensity, as always, will drive this system. The uncertainty lies in a more southern track, which anything more southern will bring more snow across the state and bring down the heavier axis of snow. Overall, as forecast, this system will be a significant storm for half of the state and a mess for the other half!

I see a huge bust potential, both way with this system. Major winter storms are not unheard of this time of the year, however, it was hard to put a major storm together most of the Winter with Arctic Air in place. On the other side, a strong Nor'Easter could certainly create the right conditions and bring a major storm across the state.

As for other effects, coastal involvements look minimal, but as with any coastal storm winds, flooding, and dangerous water/surf conditions are possible. Right now, these are not in the forecast, but that can change at any point.

Updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track




Forecast Snowfall Totals



Snowfall Maximums

[IrishAyes]

Snow huh...

[Pfishingruven]

Snow huh...

This sucks ! I am so tired of cold and windy...

[Pfishingruven]

Only minor changes to the forecast, mostly with timing and snowfall amounts. A moderate Winter Storm will affect the entire state early on Friday and clear out late on Friday Night. The bulk of the snow will come in the morning and afternoon. The axis of snow has shifted southeast, slightly. 4-6 inches is being spread over a bigger area of Northwestern NJ and areas south and east of the I-95 Corridor could see 1-2 inches in places. Some totals increased north and west of the I-95 Corridor as well. Beyond that, this is some crazy weather !

Be safe and enjoy the snow on the first day of Spring!

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track




Forecast Snowfall Totals

[Pfishingruven]

Here's the bust potential I was talking about...a little farther track to the south and a little stronger and a much larger area of the state is now pulled into the 4-6 inch range and 3-4 inch range! Accumulations are beginning on the roads and started on grass and other surfaces around 1-2 hours ago. Roads will certainly not see these totals, but this is the forecast for snowfall totals. I guess it depends how you see it. Either way, snow through tonight, making the evening commute messy...how much accumulates depends on what surface and surface temperatures.

Be safe!

[Eng 94]

Bummer More snow to plow, I'm sure the kids are lovein it.