NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: May 4-8, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Overall a nice week weatherwise, but a busy forecast this week. Water conditions will be mostly good with an unknown storm component possible towards the end of the week. Monday day will be dry and summer-like with rain chances possible at night. These look to be confined to northern areas. Tuesday will have chances of showers and thunderstorms where some of these could become severe. Wednesday will also have a chance of showers. Precipitation and thunderstorm chances look to be more scattered or widely scattered than an organized batch of rain. Thursday and Friday will be clear and dry again. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70’s and 80’s, with the rest of the week in the 70’s. Overnight lows will remain in the 50’s. Cooler temperatures will continue at the shore and on the water. Overall, it should be a decent week with some pockets of showers possible through midweek. Water conditions will begin good and then become borderline to cautious on Monday for all locations and Tuesday for ocean waters. Wednesday through Friday could be borderline to cautious for seas and some gustier winds **IF** a low pressure system forms off the East Coast and tracks northeastward. If not, water conditions look borderline to good, maybe some higher seas to 4 feet possible. The big what if is the models hinting at some subtropical storm development off of the Southeast Coast later in the week. This area is already being highlighted by the National Hurricane Center in the 5 Day Outlook. The models are hinting at low pressure emerging from the Caribbean/GOM and moving off the coast of Florida, with development somewhere near Bermuda. With water temperatures, this will likely be a subtropical system and RIGHT now models keep it well offshore and out to sea. The only involvement should be for ocean waters with a long period swell bringing high seas. However, there is nothing right now, so forecasting or even modeling something that does not exist is unpredictable at best. So, this is what the official forecasts and models are saying, well in advance of accuracy time frames. This will be something to watch over the next few days and will be something with updates to follow. Surf and beach conditions look ok to good. Gusty winds will pickup by Monday Afternoon, but only to around 20 knot gusts and remain into Tuesday, maybe even Wednesday in some locations. Surf could become rough later in the week and surf heights could top 5 feet, again, IF an ocean storm develops. Water temperatures have warmed and are in the upper 40’s to lower 60’s with surf temperatures in the mid 50’s. UV Index will range from Moderate to Very High at 3-8/15.

High pressure will build farther offshore of the East Coast through Monday, before a cold front moves across the area on Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The cold front is forecast to stall south of the area through the end of the week with high pressure pushing its way southward across the area through Friday. The high builds offshore over the weekend, with the return flow developing across the area.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-20% chance of showers at night (mainly northern areas)
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 80’s inland, low 70’s at the shore/on the water
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:54am
Sunset: 7:53pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-50% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s inland, low to mid 70’s at the shore/on the water
Low:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  4-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:52am
Sunset: 7:54pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 70’s
Low:   Upper 40’s to low 50’s
UV Index:  3-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 7:55pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70’s inland, low 70’s at the shore/on the water
Low:   Low to mid 50’s
UV Index:  6-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 7:56pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70’s inland, low 70’s at the shore/on the water
Low:   Mid 50’s
UV Index:  6-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 7:57pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tuesday Severe Weather Risks



Atlantic Ocean Storm




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  55°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 5 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):   2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots diminishing to SW 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:   SW 5 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  55°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  52°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  56°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 8-11 knots becoming SSW 13-16 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 23 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 11-13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5-8 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 6 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  52°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: E 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  56°F-60°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Winds: SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds: SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Night
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSE 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[IrishAyes]

Lotsa green!!! 

[Pfishingruven]

Lotsa green!!! 

As long as we don't see an early season tropical/subtropical storm later in the week! I don't believe it, but the models are very persistent and insistent.

[Salty Dog]

Thanks ,your chart makes it so much easier to plan .

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks ,your chart makes it so much easier to plan .

YW, but I can't take credit for it. Rod came up with the idea, I just put it to use . Hopefully, I don't have to change it for the end of the week? I am also hoping/working on some better graphics for presenting the weekly weather.

[Pfishingruven]

The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 90L off of the East Coast of Florida with a 60% chance of formation over the next 5 days. A very broad area of low pressure and disorganized rain and thunderstorms are beginning to converge and rotate off of the coast of Florida. Clouds are evident on satellite and rain evident on radar with the start of rotation. Both formation and forecasts are still in their infancy, so information will change often. It looks like this system (from the models) will become a tropical storm that will move north-northwest into the Carolina's Coast before turning east-northeast and out to sea. The modeled paths should remain well off of the coast of NJ and only some water conditions should be affected right now. Timing is definitely end of the week and into the weekend.

Updates to follow. Aircraft Reconnaissance will fly when the area becomes more organized with the potential of becoming a tropical depression.








Visible Satellite (animated)


Satellite Cloud Heights (animated)