NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: June 22-26, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A mixed week for weather and water conditions, but hot and humid continues through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will be mixed in throughout the week. Even days will only slight chances could certainly see isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms as hot and humid air continues in the region and high pressure is not stabilizing the area. Monday and Wednesday will have the lowest chances of any shower or thunderstorm development. Tuesday, Thursday and Friday will be higher with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and more organized or widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms on Thursday Night. The remainder of the time, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to widely scattered. Highs will start off in the 80’s to 90’s with overnight lows in the 60’s to 70’s before dropping midweek into the 80’s and then 70’s and 80’s by Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will continue in the 60’s and 70’s, though. Humidity will be high most of the week becoming more moderate towards the end of the week. Water conditions will be very mixed with some gusty winds at times and high seas others. Overall and in general, rivers and bays will be on Monday, cautious to borderline on Tuesday, and then good for the rest of the week. Inshore waters will be good to borderline on Monday, borderline to cautious on Tuesday for winds and seas, borderline on Wednesday for seas, good on Thursday and borderline to cautious on Friday for seas and then winds. Midshore to offshore will be borderline to cautious all week, with some pockets of good conditions, mainly for seas, but some winds mixed in as well. There may be other times that may be good before seas increase or days seas don’t hit the 4+ feet for the day. Many craft may operate in the borderline to even cautious conditions, however knowing that seas could reach 3-5 feet during the days is important to many! Winds and seas could be higher than forecast in areas in and around thunderstorms. Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok. Winds could gust 20-25 knots on Tuesday and later on Friday with surf heights 2-4 feet in general. Rip Current Risk will be Low to Moderate. Knowing daily updated rip current risks is important for anyone venturing into the water. Water temperatures are steady in the 60’s and 70’s with some shallower waters of the Delaware Bay/River up into the 80’s. UV Index will be High to Very High at 7-10/15.
A weak cold front will pass through the region Sunday Night. A stronger cold front will move through on late Tuesday. Weak high pressure then follows for Wednesday. A complex frontal system will affect the region late in the week into the weekend. This system will keep cool high pressure north of the area and low pressure just south of the area.

Saturday and Sunday will continue with chances of showers and thunderstorms for both days. Highs will continue in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s to low 70’s with moderate to high humidity. Water, surf and beach conditions, right now, look cautious with winds to 25+ knots and seas to 8 feet inshore and 10 feet midshore to offshore.

Atlantic Tropics are quiet.

Have a great week and thanks for reading! This week begins Lightning Safety Week. Please review the threat at Lightning Safety. Outdoor activities, especially fishing and more specifically males who are fishing, are statistically the highest risk category to be struck and killed by lightning!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:    Mid 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to mid 70’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with mid 50’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:29pm
First Qtr: 7:04am


Thursday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 60%-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to mid 80’s
Low:   Mid to Upper 60’s with low 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-40% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 70’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s with upper 50’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:29pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tuesday Severe Weather Risks




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):   2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:   NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  64°F
Monday
Wind:  NW 8-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 10-13 knots increasing to 13-16 knots with gusts to 22 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  WSW 7-11 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NNW 7 knots becoming WNW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-8 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming ESE 5-7 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SSE 6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  71°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  73°F-83°F
Monday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots by late morning
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming NW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 5 knots in the evening becoming light and variable
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds: E 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds: SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  64°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Salty Dog]

 

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted the Severe Weather Risk for Tuesday. With a lifting warm front, highs in the 90's pushing 100's and high humidity, the dropping cold front will cause instability. Storms could be strong to severe, with mainly a wind and hail threat.

More to follow tomorrow...

[Pfishingruven]

I have no internet and very limited cell service. Hot today, Severe Weather likely with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7p. Small Craft Advisory and Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Hopefully my internet is restored soon ?

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks for the report 

Maybe you could do a little better for the weekend

[Pfishingruven]

Today is going to be an active weather day on several platforms. First, as a warm front continues to lift north, temperatures will increase into the mid 90's with upper 90's possible. Humidity will be high as well, as dew points move into the upper 60's and possibly even the low 70's. Heat indices (it will feel like) will easily top 100+ degrees in places. Heat Advisories have been issued for Mercer, Gloucester, Camden and Northwest Burlington Counties as well as neighboring PA, DE & into MD.

Severe Weather will also be likely today, as an approaching cold front will mix with hot and humid air in place from the warm front. These ingredients will create instability and set the stage for the potential of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for the entire state. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are already making their way into the state from PA, especially for northwestern parts. Daytime heating will really have a big role in how much instability occurs, however, regardless temperatures are still forecast into the 90's. Storms could be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Be aware of changing weather conditions, have a way of receiving weather alerts and know what to do in the event of severe weather!

On the water, Small Craft Advisories have been issued with southwest then west winds to 25 knots and seas 3-5 feet at 4-5 seconds causing cautious conditions. Surf conditions will be cautious as well with rougher surf, increasing to 3-4 feet at 4 seconds, winds 20-25 knots and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today! In addition, thunderstorms are likely, so make sure you can seek shelter with fast approaching storms. Being caught on the beach in a thunderstorm is very dangerous, especially areas far from shelter (Sandy Hook, IBSP, Cape May, etc...)



Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been issued for the entire state including coastal waters and bays until 7PM and extended until 11P

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #344


Severe Thunderstorm Watch #346








Sorry for the delays. My internet was just restored!

Be SAFE !