Hurricane Joaquin

[Pfishingruven]

The Atlantic/East Coast invest has now become Tropical Depression #11. TD11 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Joaquin over the next 24 hours or so. This is the system that will bring worsening water conditions (from bad to worse) with high winds and seas. The wave models have backed off of 20+ foot seas, however track and intensity of this storm will be the main factors. The size of the system will also determine its reaches, as well. Track will also determine the extent of effects for coastal and inland areas. At minimum, the area can expect high/dangerous seas, gusty winds, high/dangerous surf, higher than normal tides and possible coastal flooding, some rain, which could be heavy (right now possibly 2 inches or so) and even some thunderstorms depending on the tropical banding. Timing looks to be Friday into Saturday.

Updates to follow...




Models

[Pfishingruven]

Tropical Depression #11 is now Tropical Storm Joaquin. This system is 400 miles northeast of the Bahamas in the Atlantic. Maximum winds are 40 MPH with a central pressure of 1002 MB, moving southwest at 5 MPH. Joaquin is forecast to become a strong tropical storms with winds to 65 MPH, as of the latest update. NJ is now in the cone of uncertainty for track and today's models have suggest a landfall on the state.

Now, in reality, the track and intensity are still to far out for any certainty. The models will go back and forth on the track and intensity will increase or decrease depending on what this storm does in the Atlantic.

What this means: We are looking at only 4-5 days before this system affects the area. At minimum high winds 40-65 MPH across the state are likely, heavy rains (weekly totals are up to 5-6+ inches), flooding conditions are likely both inland and coastal, higher than normal tides/storm surge, high winds and dangerous seas back to pushing 15-20 feet on the ocean, and of course rough and dangerous surf. These effects will shift east or west with the track. Tidal guidance is running 5-6 feet above Mean Sea Level with a 1-2 foot storm surge.  

If you live in an area prone to flooding from just a few feet difference, be prepared for flooding this week. This applies to coastal and inland areas. If you are concerned about property in flood areas, such as boats, etc...now is the time to consider pulling boats and moving them and making that final decision in the next couple of days. The forecast could go either way...worse or better, but with only 4 days until the area starts feeling effects, there isn't the 5-7 day lead time as is common with coastal storms and tropical systems. Make sure plans are in place, kits stocked, and everyone statewide is prepared!

Please feel free to share this information and anyone with questions please contact me in several ways, either in this thread, PM, or look up my email or cell phone. Don't hesitate to contact me however!!

I will have an update tomorrow! Just a reminder, prior to any tropical storms, Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night will see widespread heavy rains of 2-3+ inches which could also cause localized and flash flooding.

Tropics Satellite Image



TS Joaquin Official Track



7 Day Precipitation Totals

[BigAl13]

time to start picking things up off the garage floor
 

[Still Running]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Without getting into many specifics (because as I stated models and forecasts will change back and forth for the next few days) a major overnight and morning change is that TS Joaquin will slow its northern progression. As of this morning, TS Joaquin should not come into the area until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. Official track is saying not until Sunday Day and even into Monday, but this could vary again and is not concrete. This gives the area more time for preparation and more time to see what this system is actually going to do.

Full update to follow tonight, after the bulk of the models and forecasts update.

Also, every news and journalistic agency will be running apocalyptic stories on Joaquin today. This is hype and nothing more. Unless, the person is a well educated, experienced and established meteorologist, they do not know anything more than you or I right now (and even the meteorologist could be drawing straws ). Bottom line, we are going to have a storm by the end of the week and most likely for the weekend, possibly over into the start of the week. How it affects the area and how strong it will be is still very dynamic. However, this does not change the week forecast for the water. Water conditions will continue to be persistently be poor right up to this tropical storm.

Have a good day !

[BigAl13]

thanks matt just make sure it all clears up by next Thursday night

[Bucktail]

Good job Matt.  I'll turn to you first for updates.

[Kenny]

Glad this thing is this weekend ... Not next ..

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest update, so far for Tuesday. Joaquin is still a tropical storm about 405 miles northwest of the Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 MPH with a central pressure of 990 MB. This is a strong tropical storm nearing hurricane strength. Joaquin is moving west-southwest at 5 MPH.

Forecasts have really slowed the system down. By Sunday, it will only be around the Carolina/Virginia Coasts. NJ has been removed from the cone of uncertainty, for now, as the system will not be here until Sunday at the earliest and more towards Monday. As well, the track has gone more easterly, which is good, but has also increased a forecast intensity to hurricane strength. Again, these forecasts will go back and forth. A big concern of course would be coastal, tidal and inland flooding on top of winds, of course. Right now, a 3 foot surge is forecast, putting tides at 6-7 feet above mean sea level. This is roughly half of what was seen with Sandy and could be dangerous and disastrous for many. On top of this system, the area is looking at 4+ inches of rain prior to any tropical systems and rain totals from Joaquin could easily reach 4-6 inches alone. Models are very split again on track, however have agreed upon strengthening to hurricane levels (which is highly likely over the next few hours).

Main impacts: high winds, heavy rains, thunderstorms with potential for severe storms, flooding-inland and coastal/tidal, high/dangerous seas and surf, and beach erosion.

So, have those plans ready. If you are in an evacuation zone, flood zone, or need to remove property from any of these areas...start thinking about this. Everyone else, look over your plans as well. Make sure kits and supplies are ready, if needed. Getting stuck with this last minute could be rough. It really is too early to call much, except a tropical system will involve the area to some degree late this weekend into early next week.

Rain will be widely scattered to widespread starting tonight and will persist for most of the next 5-7 days. I know there is concern about the NJSWF Tuna Trip next week. Depending on the timing of the storm, end of next week could be dicey. Conditions will improve behind this system, but how quickly they improve will be the key.

Daily updates to follow, with any important updates immediately. Anyone with any questions or anything that needs clarification, please feel free to contact me whenever. Also, please feel free to share or direct others to this thread for updates as well.

NWS PHI Briefing #2 Flooding/TS Joaquin

NWS NYC Briefing #2 Flooding/TS Joaquin

[Pfishingruven]

thanks matt just make sure it all clears up by next Thursday night

No guarantees...it looks good behind all of this crap, but I don't know how fast the waters can recover !

Good job Matt.  I'll turn to you first for updates.

Thanks Bob!

Glad this thing is this weekend ... Not next ..

I'm not sure it will make a difference, but this weekend gives next week the best chances .

[Pfishingruven]

I want to quickly clarify tide levels. I report it one way and the NWS reports it differently...well, it is really the same, just semantics. I show tides at Mean Sea Level(MSL) as 0 feet and then high tide, Mean High High Water(MHHW), as a possitive change and low tide, Mean Low Low Water(MLLW) as a negative change. High Astronomical Tide is also accounted for. and shown as a positive change. The NWS shows Mean Sea Level as the actual average of water in feet remaining, then high tide is added to this number and low tide is essentially near 0 feet. The NWS is using the actual readings for the tide of the body of water. However, this makes above normal tides or storm surges appear to be much greater than they will actually be because this system, the NWS system, shows the total amount of water above 0 feet. So, I will be changing and showing the numbers as the NWS does. Tides and surges are one of the most argued and confused topics surrounding coastal storms. Either way, if slack tide is 2 feet above sea level and high tide is 3 feet more, putting it at 5 feet total above sea level and there is a 3 foot storm surge, that makes 8 feet total of water, but only 6 feet above mean sea level and 3 feet above high tide.

As long as everyone understands this, it doesn't really matter which way we report zero. One way will show more of a true value, but may seem lower, while the other way is actual amount of water expected above sea level and will look high on the graphs, but mean sea level will need to be taken into account.

Reference the two forecasts for Cape May. Top is MSL at 0 feet and the bottom is MSL at the average of water at slack tide.

Any questions, please ask. I would hate for someone to under or over estimate flooding risks, one way or another.

Thanks !

[Pfishingruven]

Changes already, but I am not going to get into this ping pong match. This is an excerpt directly from the National Hurricane Center. Honest and you can't ask any more than that. Also a link to the NHC if anyone is looking...

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States.  The environmental steering currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models.  A wide range of outcomes are possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States.

National Hurricane Center

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt 

[Pfishingruven]

Hurricane Joaquin has continued to strengthen all day today and as of the 11PM update, is now a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 MPH. Central pressure is 951  MB and is located 90 miles east of San Salvador and 170 miles E of the Central Bahamas. It is moving southwest at 6 MPH.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

Confidence still remains low on the track of this storm. Model agreement does not exist and every 6 hours the solutions are continually different. This is not surprising and is happening for several reasons. First, it is still early in the process from landfall. Secondly, there is very little data going into the model computers. This will change over the next 24 hours. Reconnaissance Aircraft will be flying missions and obtaining data within the hurricane, around the hurricane and around the East Coast, that will help determine the true atmospheric conditions. Local NWS Offices are also launching weather balloons more frequently to provide additional data for the computers. This will drastically improve the model and confidence in a track.

Currently, the track puts Joaquin making landfall in North Carolina and then up the Chesapeake Bay. Forecast to be a Category 2 at landfall, Joaquin will weaken as it moves north. We would not see any effects until Monday and this track will keep much of the effects inland in the form of rain and winds. There will be some coastal effects, but nothing like what would be felt for a landfalling storm on NJ or even going up the coast. With that said, I am not convinced this is the final track or solution, so do not be surprised to see major changes in the next 24-48 hours. NJ is back in the cone of uncertainty. However, do not get caught up in the constant back and forth every 6 hour changes. Leave that to me, unless you really enjoy the chaos.

This is not a storm to ignore. Again, if you live in a flood prone area or have property in these areas, having a plan in case, would be a good idea. Also, knowing how long you need to put these plans into action is important.

So, lets get through these next 3 days, which are not anything to slough off and in these next days hopefully some more clarity with this tropical system come into view.

Updates to follow. Tomorrow will have a weekend outlook at some point and I will shoot for an earlier update.

Thanks!

[Reckless]

Thanks for the info!! 

[njbob49]

Thanks for the great and current updates Matt.  I have more faith reading your reports for the truth, than the ones on TV who are trying to get you to tune in all the time and are known to sensationalize the info once in a while.    

[fluke - u]

  .. Thanks Matt, This is my Hurricane center. No Bull crap, No Drama Just a report. Thanks for all your hard work.    

[Hotrod]

 

[Fishin Dude]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the National Hurricane Center's 5 PM Update on Joaquin. Joaquin was upgraded to a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane today with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and a central pressure of 936MB. Joaquin is battering the Bahamas over the last several days and is moving southwest still at 6 MPH.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W
ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

Joaquin is forecast to only strengthen by around 10 more mph before beginning to weaken. The current track takes this hurricane out to sea with no landfall on the US Coast. This track has more confidence than yesterday, but is still only a low to moderate confidence beyond 48 hours or so. This track will take a weakening hurricane into a tropical storm well off the NJ Coast late on Monday and into Tuesday. However, this does not mean that the area is getting away without any effects. Rains are still likely and some gusty winds. Water conditions will continue to be hazardous and tides above normal. Coastal flooding and rough, high surf causing beach erosion will continue as well. Even rainfall totals have come way down from around 10 inches to 1-5 inches at most. This is one of the better scenarios that could play out with this storm. Models actually have all trended east the last few runs. If we are lucky, that trend will continue and there won't be anything to talk about except some rain and poor water conditions for the first half of next week...crossing my fingers!

This track, forecast and precipitation totals will change several more times over the next few days, so don't be surprised.

Overall conditions over the next three days have improved some with less tropical moisture being pulled up into the area, therefore decreasing rain totals and coastal and marine forecasts have moderated out some.

This will need to be watched for any changes and plans should still be looked over "just in case."






Visible Satellite Loop

NWS PHI Briefing