NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Dec 21-25, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

More unsettled weather bringing some rain chances and above normal temperatures and mostly cautious water conditions. Monday will start off dry with a mix of clouds and clouds increasing throughout the day. Monday Night will have chances of showers, carrying over into Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday Day. Showers will be scattered to widely scattered with more widespread and organized showers on Wednesday. Thursday Night will see clearing conditions into a dry Friday. The temperatures will be the big story this week. Highs and lows will be above seasonal averages with highs in the 50’s to 70’s. Overnight lows will range from the 30’s to 50’s. Areas in northern parts of the state will not see as high of temperatures and along the coast will not see as cold of overnight lows. However, generalized, this week will be more like early Fall than early Winter. Enjoy the full Christmas Moon, the first in 34 years. This will not happen again until 2034. Water conditions will not be as lucky. Monday will have borderline to cautious conditions with Small Craft Advisories. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will bring a mix of good to cautious conditions depending on location, as well as some fog and reduced visibility. Friday will have good conditions for rivers and bays, borderline to cautious conditions for inshore ocean waters and cautious conditions for midshore to offshore. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious all week with 2-4 foot wave heights increasing to 8+ feet during the week. Water temperatures are steady in the 50’s still. UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States will move offshore Sunday Night into Monday. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes Monday Night, but it is expected to dissipate on Tuesday before it reaches the region. A warm front will develop to the south on Tuesday Night before it moves northward through the area on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to cross the region late on Thursday. High pressure briefly returns Christmas Day. Another storm system may approach from the Midwest next weekend.

The weekend will have chances of showers both days, however the above average temperatures continue with highs in the 40’s and 50’s with overnight lows in the 30’s to 40’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline to cautious. Saturday may start off good with conditions deteriorating as winds and seas increase into Saturday Afternoon and overnight. Sunday looks to be cautious all day.

I will be watching the mid to later part of the week for any changes. Have a great week and from my family to yours have a safe and Merry Christmas! Thanks for reading…

Monday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-20% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 50’s with upper 40’s across northern areas
Low:   Upper 40’s to low 50’s inland, low to mid 50’s at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 4:34pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-60% chance of showers all day (chances decrease into the overnight)
Temperatures
High:    Upper 50’s to low 60’s with low 50’s across northern areas
Low:   Upper 40’s inland, low 50’s at the shore, mid to upper 30’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:34pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-80% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 60’s
Low:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:35pm


Thursday~Christmas Eve
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of showers during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Upper 40’s to low 50’s with mid 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:35pm


Friday~Christmas Day
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s
Low:   Low 40’s inland, mid to upper 40’s at the shore, mid to upper 30’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:36pm
Full Moon: 6:13am


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  5-9 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots becoming W 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  5-9 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-9 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  53°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-8 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-8 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-5  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  48°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 12-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 9-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  WSW 5-7 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  E 9-13 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 17-19 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 18-23 knots becoming W in the afternoon with gusts to 32 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  WNW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  53°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-8 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-8 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: N 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 20 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Winds: NW 10-15 knots becoming N 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday[/]
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming NW in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  57°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  S 11 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  S 12 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Wednesday will bring the greatest chances of widespread showers to the area, with those chances decreasing into the overnight. Chances of scattered showers are possible on Thursday and even into Christmas Day, now, with those chances decreasing for Christmas Night and then increasing into Saturday. With the unseasonably warm temperatures, which will make it into the 60's and 70's over the next couple of days in places, it will also bring the chance of some thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will again, be scattered to widely scattered, with areas of heavy rains, lightning, and gusty winds. Any thunderstorms do not look to be severe, however, they could be stronger locally/isolated at times.

Also, severe weather is possible for parts of the Greater Tennessee Valley, with an enhanced risk for Wednesday. These areas could see thunderstorms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes. This is not extremely uncommon, however it is late in the season to have such a widespread possibility of severe weather. If you know anyone living in the highlighted areas, make sure they are aware of this threat!

[Pfishingruven]

Well, the thunderstorm risk today has now added in the potential for severe thunderstorms. Any activity will still be scattered, however any storms could become severe. The potential for heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and even a tornado risk across the southern half of the state exists today. Be aware of changing weather conditions, have a way of receiving weather updates, and be careful while traveling on the roads.

Have a safe and Merry Christmas!!

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt

[fluke - u]

  ... Thanks for all your work all year long. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year To you and your family ....

[Pfishingruven]

... Thanks for all your work all year long. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year To you and your family ....

Thank you and same to you!

[Pfishingruven]

So, due to multiple technical difficulties both on my end and out of my control, the Full Weekend Outlook has been compromised. Multiple websites that I use have been down for 3 days now, likely,  due to the holiday and now into the weekend. So, here is the quick run down without all the necessary details. If anyone needs the details, please contact me directly. Thank you and sorry for any inconvenience!

Clouds will continue with chances of scattered showers. Chances increase into the overnight hours, where more widely scattered to widespread showers will be possible. Fog will also develop into the overnight. Highs will be in the upper 40's to mid 50's with overnight lows in the upper 40's to low 50's with some low 40's across northern areas. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with scattered chances of showers. Highs will be in the low to upper 60's with overnight lows back in the mid 30's to upper 40's. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious through Sunday Afternoon with Small Craft Advisories for winds NE to E to 25 knots and seas 3-6 feet. Rivers and bays will have lower wave heights, but winds will still gust. Sunday Afternoon will see improving conditions, however borderline to cautious conditions are still likely with winds to 20 knots and seas to 5 feet.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas and can enjoy the weekend!