Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday

[Pfishingruven]

This is very early in the forecast process, but I know many weather and news outlets are already talking about this storm. A brief history...this system has been "brewing" in the mid range models (15-30+ days out) for some time. As the short range models came into range around the 7-10 day mark, the system was still present, however every 6 hours the solution for this storm has changed. All of the major models have hinted at a storm, while the European Model (arguably the most accurate) locked onto the Mid Atlantic Region last night with upwards of 48 inches of snow for some areas. In the last 12 hours, it has stuck with this solution, but it has changed specifics both times. The models will change this far out still, every 6 hours.

Since this is early in the forecast, what is known and can be expected is a system coming out of the Midwest/South and exiting into the Atlantic. This system will ride up the coast as a Nor'Easter, strengthening along the way. The track and intensity will be the main driving force of this storm. Any shift in the track by only 50-100 miles could really change the forecast for certain areas. A really strong storm or a really weak storm will also change things around. This storm looks to impact the region on Friday with Friday Night through Saturday Night the main event. In addition to snow, which could push the two foot mark within the state, with less accumulation along the coast, gusty winds to 60 knots are possible, moderate to major coastal flooding, high seas to 20+ feet offshore and 15 feet inshore, and beach erosion. Coastal flooding will be a particular concern, as tides will already be running high this week due to lunar influences. The highest lunar tides will coincide with the full moon on Saturday. Early guidance is suggesting tides running 3 feet or more, right now. Again, this is very early guidance and could go either way.

The National Weather Service Philadelphia in Mount Holly has released a Briefing already. Again, this is all very early in the game and information WILL change. However, you can expect a mess on Friday and Saturday. If you live in a flood zone, consider any changes you may need to make. Know how much time you need to finish these changes and go by the best forecast at the latest point you can.

If anyone has questions, feel free to PM, email, text, or call me!

Updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing #1

[Pfishingruven]

So, there are very few updates for Tuesday. Tomorrow will bring some early forecasts with snowfall amounts. The chance of a Nor'Easter/Winter Storm affecting the area is very likely and I would say with a 90% or greater chance. Timing is going to be Friday Evening through Saturday. What the effects will be from the storm is still in question? Track and intensity will dictate much of the storm (50-100 miles will change everything). Right now, all of the models agree on a major storm, but vary on track. They mostly agree on intensity, bringing anywhere from rain to almost 4 feet of snow in some areas south and west of NJ. NJ is showing anywhere from rain changing over to snow for south and eastern areas to all snow north and west of the I95 Corridor with 3-18+ inches of heavy, wet snow. While, snow is a big factor, I am more concerned with the coastal effects and potential complications of heavy and wet snow and gusty winds. Winds along the coast *COULD* see hurricane force at 70+ knots and inland gusts 30-40 knots. Heavy wet snow with gusty winds will bring down trees, powerlines, and poles quickly. My next concern is flooding. Storm surge will be coming on top of already high lunar tides with the full moon on Saturday. Tides are already running high at this point. Moderate to major flooding is possible with a 2-3 foot storm surge on top of these already high tides. 8-9 feet of water total could be pushed ashore. This would be 3-4 feet above Mean Higher High Water or high tides (comparison...Sandy was 13 feet of total water). Early guidance through Friday Night is suggesting these numbers. Later for Saturday is not available yet. Coupled with gale force winds, hurricane force gusts, and seas 15-30 feet flooding along the beaches and into the bays and rivers could be a disaster. While snow and loss of power will be a inconvenience and urgent situation due to the cold, major flooding will pose an entirely different risk. Now, is the time to make flood preparations for those prone to coastal flooding. Of course, moderate to major beach erosion is also likely with this storm.

As it stands right now, there is not a ton of concrete information, nor any forecasts that won't change over the next few days below are the latest briefings from both the NWS PHI and NYC that cover NJ. IF anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.

Update tomorrow, hopefully with some more solid information.

NWS PHI Briefing #2

NWS NYC Briefing #1

[fluke - u]

 ..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston 

[Pfishingruven]

..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston 

 

I'll definitely keep you posted. It will likely be a mess...

[Still Running]

 

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt.

[fellinger]

Thanks. I hope the coastal area makes out ok. I have a generator and snow blower so, I am sure we are all safe.

[Still Running]

Thanks. I hope the coastal area makes out ok. I have a generator and snow blower so, I am sure we are all safe.

Bread and Milk ?

[Takes Prizoners]

In preparation mode. Had to bring my blower back to lowes last night. Luckily, we were able to figure out the problem and fix it right there

[wb]

Thanks. I hope the coastal area makes out ok. I have a generator and snow blower so, I am sure we are all safe.

Bread and Milk? BOURBON

^^ fixed it for you ^^^

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest forecast from both the National Weather Service Philadelphia and New York City. These are very preliminary forecasts and I do not think they accurately represent the potential snowfall totals, so I will discuss this later. Also, these forecasts WILL change every 12 hours through the event. This can make planning and understanding the potential and actual event difficult. Also to note, Winter Storms are difficult, especially a coastal storm. Track and intensity will dictate everything and a change of just 50-100 miles can really effect a forecast, especially snowfall amounts.

With that being said, a powerful Winter Storm/Nor’Easter is forecast to affect the area starting on Friday Afternoon and continuing through Saturday Night. A large low pressure system has exited the Pacific Ocean onto the Northwest Coast. This system will travel through the CONUS dropping down into the south and fueling itself on Gulf of Mexico moisture. This low pressure system will exit the Southeast Coast, entering the Atlantic Ocean, where it will rapidly intensity while moving northeast. This storm will bring feet of snow to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Regions along with high winds, high seas, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. Models agree on an event, however track and intensity, as well as snowfall amounts do not have unanimous agreement, and probably will not. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for most of the the NJ Counties, Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for all ocean Coastal Counties, and Storm Watches have been posted for all Marine Waters.

Storm Track



Models Storm Track



Snow: This is the greatest area of varying forecasts. Statewide anywhere from rain to more than 18 inches of snow is still possible. Official forecasts are calling for 1-15 inches depending on location. Areas south and east of the I95 Corridor will likely see rain changing over to snow, while areas north and west will see all snow. Accumulations will depend on when the rain/snow switch over happens. These forecast totals WILL change every 12 hours. This official NWS Forecast is very conservative. Also, banding of heavy snow cannot be forecast and will not be represented in these forecasts. Blizzard like conditions are also possible. Blizzard requires winds over 35 MPH with blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less for 3 or more hours.

Forecast Snowfall Totals




Minimum Snowfall Totals




Maximum Snowfall Totals




Probability of More than 4 Inches of Snow




Probability of More than 6 Inches of Snow




Modeled Snowfall Totals




Other Effects:  The biggest threat from this storm is not the snow. Coastal Flooding is a huge concern with moderate to major coastal flooding likely. Already elevated lunar tides will have a 2-4 foot storm surge on top of it, making tides 2-4 feet above Mean Higher High Water (High Tide), making it around 2-3 feet above High Astronomical Tide. Either way 4 feet over high tide is going to cause major flooding in many areas. Tide will be high on the oceans on Saturday Morning. Bays will experience flooding later on Saturday and will have to contend with waters being pushed into the back. Immediate beach front areas will also have to deal with waves to 15 feet crashing on top of these high tides. Winds will be 20-40 knots with gusts 50-70 knots. Ocean seas will be 15+ feet inshore and 20+ feet offshore. Beach erosion will also be a problem. Flooding is highly likely to occur, independent of snowfall. Track and intensity will only slightly effect any flooding at this point. Regardless of the track and intensity, at minimum some type of degree of flooding will occur.

Forecast Tides/Surge





Wind Gusts



NWS PHI Briefing #3

NWS NYC Briefing #2

Updates to follow tomorrow...any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me!

[Pfishingruven]

Here is some historical information I researched on storm surges. This gives you a comparison of previous storms, how bad flooding was and what is currently forecast. These numbers are in total feet of water, which would be Mean Lower Low Water at 0 feet. The images in the most recent update were set at this so, the forecast graphs are comparable to the numbers in this chart.

[BigAl13]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Al, the Flood Forecast looks a little better. At least, not pushing record levels. Almost done with the update for today.

[Pfishingruven]

Here is Thursday’s Update. The forecasts are looking more solid and the models have started to agree a little more. Of course, there has been some changes to the forecast and with the models. Unfortunately, the NWS’s job is to update those forecasts every 12 hours to represent the most current forecast possible. However, this can make everyone crazy with the constant changes and not being able to pin down what is going to happen. Like I said yesterday, I wasn’t convinced the forecast snowfall totals were depicting what was likely to happen. Today’s snowfall totals paint an entirely different picture, as the models have shifted south and east some. Track seems to be better defined as well (if you look at the models track graphic, most of the various points are much closer together). Flooding forecasts have changed too, today. There are several Watches and Warnings posted. Winter Storm Watches have been replaced in most counties by Blizzard Watches: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, and Union. Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for Bergen, Cape May, Hunterdon, Eastern Monmouth, Morris, Coastal Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for Atlantic, Southeastern Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Eastern Union. High Wind Watches are posted for Atlantic, Cape May, and Ocean Counties.  Marine Waters from Little Egg Inlet south, including the southeastern most part of Delaware Bay are in Storm Warnings. Storm Watches extend north from Little Egg Inlet all the way up the coast past Long Island and for the rest of Delaware Bay and the Delaware River. A Gale Watch has been issued for New York Harbor/Raritan Bay.

The low pressure system is already in Eastern Central Texas. It will continue through the Southeast, collecting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This system will exit the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean around Georgia and South Carolina. It will quickly intensify as it moves northeast up the coast. How quickly or how much intensification is unknown, however the models are suggesting a 980-990 mb system, which is not overly strong. One thing to note is that the models repeatedly underestimate the strength of these systems. The track has this system turning more east-northeast south of the state, making it farther east than originally thought. Again, these models change every 6 hours and forecasts every 12 hours. Timing will still be anywhere from Friday Afternoon to start. These will be early effects of the storm. The heaviest and bulk of the storm will come later Friday Night through Saturday and begin to taper off late on Saturday.

Storm Track



Models Storm Track


Snow: With the southeasterly shift in track, snowfall amounts for northern NJ have dropped some and a wide area of the state could see 12-18 inches. Areas along the coast have also increased, quite a bit, but will still see less snow. These coastal areas will still see rain changing over to snow. Areas north and west of the I95 Corridor will likely see all snow, however where that snow/rain line sets up and when the switchover happens will be key to accumulation totals. Banding of heavier snow are not really forecastable, either. While, theoretically, these should be in areas of higher forecast snowfall totals, it does not always or usually happen that way. Heavy banding could bring snowfalls at or more than 1 inch an hour. Regardless of the snowfall totals, a major Winter Storm is aiming to take place.

Forecast Snowfall Totals




Minimum Snowfall Totals




Maximum Snowfall Totals




Probability of More than 6 Inches of Snow




Probability of More than 8 Inches of Snow




Probability of More than 12 Inches of Snow




Probability of More than 18 Inches of Snow



Modeled Snowfall Totals




Coastal Effects: The flooding issue has been the biggest worry with this storm. Yesterday’s forecast painted near record level flooding. Today’s numbers look a little better and areas along the Northern NJ Coast (Northern Ocean County and Monmouth County…rough estimates) and Raritan Bay/New York Harbor will not get the full effects because the storm should turn more to the east by then. However, flooding will still be moderate to major along most of the coast and Delaware Bay/River. Tides are still running 2-4 feet above normal, with most areas seeing at or less than 8 feet of total water. Raritan Bay Areas will see moderate flooding with 2-3 feet of water above normal. While still a big concern, the impending threat of near record flooding have subsided some. The strong onshore flow will push water into the coast and into the inlets, bays, and rivers. Sustained winds will be 35 MPH or more with wind gusts 60+ MPH along the coast and 40+ MPH inland. If you live in a flood prone area, be ready for flooding. Even a foot of water will make a mess in most areas. Immediate coastal areas will also have to contend with crashing wave heights to 15 feet inshore and 20 feet offshore, as well a moderate to major beach erosion.

Forecast Tides/Surge





Wind Gusts



Be prepared for these many high impacts. As with any blizzard or snow/wind event, heavy wet snow will collect on trees and power lines. This will cause downed trees, wires and poles. Roads and surfaces may be impassable or hazardous and power outages are possible. Be safe!! One good note here is that high temperatures look to be above freezing in the upper 30’s to low 40’s for next week and even above freezing on Sunday. So, the snow won’t stick around, however melting snow could cause icy conditions after dark when temperature fall below freezing.

I will update the forecasts more often, if there are significant changes. I will also update the before the storm forecast on Friday Morning, also. Again, be safe! If anyone has any questions, concerns, or comments, please do not hesitate to contact me through PM, email, text, or by phone. I am debating whether or not to do the full Weekend Outlook tonight? The summary is going to be Winter Storm and HAZARDOUS Water Conditions, but…I do like to have complete information, especially for Sunday.

NWS PHI Briefing #5

NWS NYC Briefing #4
 

[njbob49]

Thanks for all your work keeping us safe Matt.     57 days to Spring when we wake up tomorrow. Be safe everyone and don't forget to stay hydrated. 

Tight Lines,
Bob G   

[Hotrod]

 

[BigAl13]

Thanks as always Matt 

[Still Running]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Well, there was not much change in the last 12 hours or so. There is some more uncertainty in the track up off the coast of NJ, that was not there yesterday. The various models widely or vaguely agree on snowfall amounts and the NWS Forecasts, while conservative, give a good depiction of the storm. Totals could go either way, even though some of the modeling is going greater than the amounts forecast, especially for the middle part of the state. Timing looks to be as early as 1PM for some flurries possibly or light snow, increasing into 4PM and heavier precipitation moving in by evening around 5PM-6PM and the heaviest by 7PM-8PM or so. This is all speculation and guestimates from a high resolution rapid update model. What I am not seeing right now, this model is only showing snow, no rain, anywhere in the state. It keeps the rain well off the coast by 50 miles or so. This may not be true in real time, but no rain means more snow for coastal areas. This model is fairly accurate, but can be wrong at times and solutions change every hour. The rest of the forecast is pretty solid as well. Moderate to Major coastal flooding along the coast and into the Delaware Bay and River with minor to moderate flooding for Raritan Bay. Winds could be sustained to 35 MPH, there will be blowing snow, and gusts 50-70 MPH along the coast and to 45 MPH inland. High seas and surf at 15-20 feet with major beach erosion.

This large and potent storm is in the South, between Mississippi and Alabama. It will bring severe weather to much of Florida before exiting in the Atlantic Ocean. There it will intensify and track northeast along the coast before turning east-northeast out to sea. There are many active Advisories, Watches, and Warnings currently for the area and for much of the Eastern half of the CONUS. Most Watches have been upgraded to Warnings at this point.

Storm Track



Models Storm Track



Forecast Snowfall Totals




Forecast Tides/Surge

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Current Advisories, Watches, and Warnings for NJ

Blizzard Warning: Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, and Union. Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for Bergen, Cape May, Hunterdon, Eastern Monmouth, Morris, Coastal Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties

Winter Storm Warning: Atlantic, Bergen, Cape May, Cumberland, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, and Warren Counties

Winter Weather Advisory: Sussex County

Coastal Flood Warning: Atlantic, Cape May, Southeastern Burlington, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, Hudson, Monmouth, Ocean, and Eastern Union Counties

Coastal Flood Advisory: Salem County

High Wind Warning: Atlantic, and Cape May Counties

Marine Waters: Storm Warning for all Ocean Waters, Delaware Bay, Delaware River and coastal bays and rivers. Gale Warning for New York Harbor/Raritan Bay.

Back to flooding, anywhere from 2-4 feet above normal will be expected. Here are some numbers in total feet above Mean Lower Low Water (0 feet) for the 3 coastal stations. Sandy Hook will see a max of 7.78 feet at 7PM Saturday Night. This is only 0.94 feet above High Astronomical Tide (HAT). The earlier high tide on Saturday Morning will see 6.96 feet or 0.12 feet above HAT. The next high tide on Sunday will see 7.70 feet or 0.86 feet above HAT. This should coincide with minor to low end moderate flooding. Atlantic City will see a max of 7.50 feet of water and that will fall on the Sunday Morning high tide around 7AM, which is 1.31 feet above HAT. Saturday’s 7AM high tide will be 7.07 feet or 0.88 feet above HAT and the Saturday 7PM high tide will be 7.148 feet or 1.29 feet above HAT. This will bring moderate to low end major flooding. Cape May will see the greatest storm surge/tide and that will take place on the Saturday Morning tide at around 8AM or so with 8.52 feet or 1.53 feet above HAT. The next two high tides, Saturday Night at 8PM will have 8.06 feet or 1.07 feet above HAT and Sunday 8AM tide will have 8.36 feet or 1.37 above HAT. Again this will be moderate to low end major flooding. High winds pushing water into the coast, as well as waves on the ocean, bays, and rivers need to be taken into account. Delaware Bay/River could see waves 4-8 feet. So, while flooding will not be record breaking, it will still be a major concern. We all know how quickly the barrier islands and coastal areas flood on normal high tides or higher lunar tides without any help from a Nor’Easter. Any slight change in track could bring more or less water as well. A track closer to the coast will bring more coastal effects and more flooding. A track that brings the storm further up the coast and not east-northeast out to sea, will affect the northern coastal areas and Raritan Bay/New York Harbor more as well.

Again the biggest threats, heavy, wet snow, gusty winds, coastal flooding, impassable roads, power outages! Be safe! Any questions or concerns, feel free to contact me…PM, email, text, cell. I will be monitoring the storm from home and will have NJSWF up and active. Only exception to this would be if I lose power. Also, have a way of receiving weather alerts. While Winter Storm Weather Alerts are not as important as Severe Weather, there may be pertinent information that needs to be relayed.

Weather Ready Nation: Winter Weather Preparedness

NWS PHI Briefing #6

NWS NYC Briefing #5