Nor'Easter/Winter Storm Friday-Saturday

[Pfishingruven]

Unofficial update...afternoon runs of the weather models show an agreement and increase of snow accumulation across the state. Don't be surprised if you get more snow than has been forecast by the NWS. NWS PHI & NYC are due to update snow forecasts at 4PM or so...any significant changes, I will post them up, but the storm will have started by then!

[Pfishingruven]

Updated Forecast Snow Totals from NWS PHI showing more snow.




Also, updated flood forecasts are showing even less water than this morning for Sandy Hook Area. Atlantic City and Cape May stayed about the same. This is good news!!

Precipitation is beginning across very southern parts of the state. The storm has slowed some and the center of the low has not yet exited into the Atlantic. Again, it looks to be all snow and no rain mixing at this point? We will have to wait and see. I also expect snow to going from flurries to moderate to heavy accumulation quickly, upwards of 1 inch an hour.

[Pfishingruven]

More updated Forecast Snowfall Totals...which have increased again. The storm is moving slower according to my understanding of the forecasts. I am noticing several forecasters stating the storm is here earlier. IMO, everyone is correct. Snow flurries and light snow will not be the case, instead quickly developing heavy snow will cover the area. Snow is moving in from the southwest, but banding is also beginning to form off the coast, as the easterly/northeasterly onshore flow begins (the low spinning counter clockwise). Also updated current conditions, current radar, storm track, and models storm track graphics are included. Several buoys off of the Southeast Coast report rapidly dropping pressure and wind gusts to 40 knots already. All Warnings are still in effect. Several coastal areas have voluntary and mandatory evacuations.

[Pfishingruven]

Forgot to mention...snow will not be as wet or heavy as first anticipated. With the more easterly track, less coastal effects and less flooding, the wetter snow will stay off the coast. Coastal areas may see some wetter snow, but overall this will be lighter than anticipated. As this storm begins to intensify and bombogenesis (rapid drop in central pressure), there is a chance of thunderstorms/lightning or thunder-snow. Risks of lightning strikes are the same as with any thunderstorm, so keep that in mind as you are shoveling or the kids are out playing!

I will keep these updates going...this storm is going to be a marathon , not a sprint !

[BigAl13]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Moderate to heavy snow with banding has covered the state. Both NWS Offices have modified Forecast Snowfalls a little, extending the 18-24 inches.




Here is current radar and radar with updated snowfall reports. I have 2.5 inches of snow here already, falling steady, calm winds (so far).

[Pfishingruven]

Quick update. The center of the low is just about over the Atlantic, but emerged farther north, near the NC/VA Border. This doesn't change the current forecast right now. However, the slow movement of the storm (which some will argue opposite) has allowed temperatures to rise. Much of the state was in the mid 20's or lower at the start of the snow. Most areas are now approaching or at the freezing mark. This is bringing a wintry mix to Atlantic and Cape May Counties and rain southeast of there, off the coast. Temperatures are dependent on the low intensifying and pulling some colder air down and into the core of this system. Coastal areas could see a mix or even temporary changeover, if this low doesn't get going. Warmer ocean waters feeding the moisture in the store are helping raise the temperature and hold off or mix with the cold air. However, forecasts still look pretty good. I am at 5.5 inches with 0.69 inches of water equivalent which is roughly an 8:1 snow:water ratio. Standard is 10:1, so snow is slightly wetter overall, due to this slightly warmer air. Winds are beginning to pickup here, with gusts near 20-25 MPH or so, snow is blowing, and storm surge is making it's way north. We are only part of the way into this storm and have many hours to go.



Blue=snow Green=rain Red/Pink=mix

[Floatsup]

Blowin like snot here at 7 Presidents in Long Branch. No power outages yet  (fingers crossed).
Gonna check highlands around 9-10 this morning.

Cheers M8's

[BigAl13]

Im hopefully leaving work in Kenilworth shortly, Im gonna say close to 6 inches here or so, falling fast. Shoveled the walks within 10 minutes they were covered with .5 inches already

[Pfishingruven]

The worst of the storm is moving through Delaware and into NJ. Here comes the winds and coastal flooding, as well as continued snow. 9 inches or so here in Manahawkin. Forecasts are on track... Most roads are impassable right now! Be safe.

[Pfishingruven]

Snow continues across the state and has all day. Some areas are seeing a lull, but that will be replaced by moderate snowfall again. The low has come much farther north and west of forecast and is stronger than forecast at 986 mb central pressure. This farther north and west track has brought more snow to Northern NJ and the NYC areas. I have lost track of how much snow I have here with the constant blowing and drifting snow. The worst of the storm is over for many, but gusty winds, high seas/rough surf, and coastal flooding will continue for the next several hours until the low begins to pull out to the east. Tides will be high through Sunday and coastal flooding is possible through then. Here are the updated snowfall forecasts. The bulk of NJ has been unchanged. Some areas did not see that full 24 inches of snow. NE NJ and NYC have upped some of their totals. Overall, this forecast was solid and by 24 hours painted a good picture of what we are getting today...a major Winter Storm/Nor'Easter. Hopefully, everyone is ok, has power, and just has to worry about digging out from snow.

[BigAl13]

Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts

[Pfishingruven]

The storm is finally moving off to the Northeast, and more northeast than east-northeast. While the forecast was solid for the Mid-Atlantic, NYC north into New England was not expecting much in the way of snow, nor blizzard conditions. Areas up through Massachusetts could see upwards of 18 inches of snow and similar conditions that we have seen. Warnings are currently in effect for these areas.

Snow will continue to fall in places, as banding continues and the backside of the storm moves out to the northeast. Here is the latest briefing from NWS PHI, as well as some current snowfall totals for the area. I will have a complete list of snowfall totals for the entire East Coast Blizzard in a day or so.

Also, since I did not do a Weekend Outlook, tonight will continue with snow, scattered at times becoming showers, gusty winds that will diminish. Overnight lows will be in the mid teens to mid 20's with coldest temperatures to the north and "warmer" temperatures at the shore. Tomorrow for dig out, will have decreasing clouds becoming mostly sunny, windy still, with highs in the low to mid 30's. Overnight lows will be in the low teens to mid 20's. Water conditions will continue to be hazardous becoming cautious and improving some for Monday before the next blow on Tuesday...

NWS PHI Current Briefing Saturday 1/23 5PM

Observed Snowfall Totals NWS PHI

Observed Snowfall Totals NWS NYC

[Pfishingruven]

Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts

YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.

Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT.

Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts

[Pfishingruven]

..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston 

Bob, how did you make out with your road trip? I would assume you postponed?

[BigAl13]

Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts

YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.

Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT.

Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts

Had water upo to the driveway today. 4 or 5 more inches it will be in the garage.

[Pfishingruven]

Still watching the surge, but other than that everything was expected. Thanks again Matt for keeping us updated and with accurate forecasts

YW, Al, as always! How did you make out with flooding...none, I hope? Sunday Morning looks to be the highest for Sandy Hook, which is still below the original forecasts and will only be a little higher than today's high tide.

Here is a link to the Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts. If you scroll down you will see numbers and data. You should be able to make sense of that, most importantly look at Forecast numbers, Observed numbers, and then the notes of above HAT.

Sandy Hook Tidal Forecasts

Had water upo to the driveway today. 4 or 5 more inches it will be in the garage.

Going to be close next high tide...good luck!

[fluke - u]

..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston 

Bob, how did you make out with your road trip? I would assume you postponed?

  ..Got on the road late and the GWB was closed. I am going to try again in the morning, 6am start....Thanks for asking.

[Pfishingruven]

..Thanks Matt, I am watching your forecast closely. I have to bring my kid back to school on Saturday....In Boston 

Bob, how did you make out with your road trip? I would assume you postponed?

  ..Got on the road late and the GWB was closed. I am going to try again in the morning, 6am start....Thanks for asking.

Yikes, good luck and safe travels!

[Pfishingruven]

It is still snowing across portions of the state, as some of the final outer bands of snow pull out to the northeast with the storm. The storm has dropped 5-30+ inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. Higher elevations of West Virginia received 40 inches of snow. This was definitely not a hyped storm and every bit of the storm came true.

The back bays are experiencing major flooding this evening! The beaches and barrier islands in places like Cape May, Wildwood, Sea Isle City, LBI, Manasquan and likely most of the bay front communities are seeing 2-4 feet of flooding. This has prompted emergency evacuations in some areas. Again, the flooding has always been my biggest concern and will continue to be an area of contention over the next 24-36 hours. Some areas have surpassed the flooding in Sandy, especially Southern Jersey, who was mostly spared the worst of Sandy.

Here are some current graphics and some storm snowfall totals through 8:30 PM.