Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Feb 22-26, 2016  (Read 1652 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Another unsettled week with a looming Winter Storm, rain, and cautious to hazardous water conditions. Monday will start off dry and with average to slightly above average high temperatures. Tuesday will bring rain and wintry precipitation chances continuing through Thursday Day. Most areas will see rain or a mix, while northern areas could see some accumulating snow along with a mix and some icing conditions as well. Rains could be heavy at times while 1-2 inches of rain are possible and locally higher amounts. Minor coastal flooding is likely on Wednesday and Thursday high tides and inland flooding or localized flooding may be an issue at this week. Right now the Winter Storm is staying mostly to the west, keeping the bulk of the cold air and precipitation there. A change in track would change this forecast. Depending which way the track changes could be better or worse. Temperatures on Tuesday through Thursday will be above average as 50’s will be seen across the area behind a lifting warm front/warm sector of the storm. Overnight lows will only be in the 40’s, but by Thursday Night temperatures will drop back into the 20’s and 30’s overnight. Highs on Friday will only be in the 20’s and 30’s with teens and 20’s for overnight lows. This will usher in colder air for the weekend. Water conditions will be good to borderline on Monday Day inshore and cautious offshore becoming cautious then cautious to hazardous for the rest of the week for all locations. Winds will gust to 40 knots and seas to 15 feet with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings. Surf conditions will be ok on Monday and then cautious Monday Night through the weekend with gusty winds to 40 knots and surf heights to 10 feet. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be the worst of the conditions, with higher tides on Wednesday and Thursday causing some minor coastal flooding and possible beach erosion. Beaches may be hazardous still in some areas and this week will not help, so use caution on the sands! Water temperatures are warmer by a few degrees in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-4/15.

For updated and detailed information on Tuesday through Thursday Winter Storm please visit http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=37636.0

High pressure will build eastward into the region from the Great Lakes on Sunday Night and move north of the region on Monday. By Tuesday, low pressure will begin to develop along a warm front in the Gulf Coast States. The main area of low pressure along the warm front will track northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes by Thursday. A cold front will then sweep through the region after the passage of the low pressure system. Another cold frontal boundary will then move southeast through the region next weekend.

Right now the weekend looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s with overnight lows in the 20’s to 30’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious to hazardous as a cold front moves offshore.hind t

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 40’s
Low:   Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland, mid 30’s at the shore, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:41am
Sunset: 5:39pm
Full Moon: 1:21pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy, Breezy
Precipitation:  20%-60% chance of rain/snow/wintry mix all day (snow and wintry mix for northern areas)
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 40’s
Low:   Upper 30’s inland, low to mid 40’s at the shore, upper 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:40am
Sunset: 5:40pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Cloudy, Breezy
Precipitation:  60%-80% chance of rain/snow all day (snow/mix northern areas)
Temperatures
High:   Upper 40’s to mid 50’s
Low:   Mid to upper 40’s inland and at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 5:41pm


Thursday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70% down to 30% chance of rain during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 40’s to low 50’s
Low:   Low 30’s inland and at the shore, mid to upper 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:37am
Sunset: 5:42pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy, Breezy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Low to mid 20’s inland and at the shore, mid to upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:35am
Sunset: 5:43pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-8 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming S 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-8 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 15-20 knots
Seas:  2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  5-11 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 15-20 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  5-11 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-9 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots diminishing 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-9 feet


Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet

Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-11 feet
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SSE 10 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-11 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: WSW 26 to 36 knots
Seas:  SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: W 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  WSW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  42°F
Monday Morning
Winds: N 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet

Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet

Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet

Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 24 to 33 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  WSW 5 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  3-7  feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  38°F
Monday
Wind:  N 7-9 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  ENE 6-9 knots increasing to 10-13 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  ENE 14-17 knots increasing to 18-21 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 19-21 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 14-17 knots becoming SE in the afternoon with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 16-19 knots becoming S 20-23 knots after midnight with gusts to 40 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 16-19 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 15-19 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet


Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  42°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet

Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 25 to 33 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 25 to 33 knots
Seas:  WSW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  W 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet


Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  E 5-10 becoming NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late evening
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 35 knots increasing to 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots becoming 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots gusts to 20 knots increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet

Wednesday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 20-25 knots with gusts to 45 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 15-20 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Friday[/]
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 20-25 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet


Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  41°F-47°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 12 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 12 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  ESE 9 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 14 to 19 knots

Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: SW 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  S 13 feet at 10 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: SW 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  S 15 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: W 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  SSW 12 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: W 27 to 37 knots
Seas:  WSW 11 feet at 8 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather Potential for Wednesday 2/24/2016
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2016, 08:58:55 AM »
There is potential for severe weather today, mainly this afternoon and evening. As scattered to widely scattered showers continue throughout the day a lifting warm front will meet an approaching cold front, forming the right ingredients for some thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could be severe with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes. The main severe threat will be damaging winds, though. Be aware to changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts!

In addition, fog is abundant this morning as are gusty winds, with Wind Advisories along coastal counties. Gale Warnings are posted for marine waters. There is a Winter Weather Advisory still for Sussex County, as northern and northwestern parts of the state could see a wintry mix and snow.

Be safe!!







 

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