Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Mar 14-18, 2016  (Read 2124 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Another unsettled week with mixed weather and water conditions. Monday will start the week with rain all day, followed by showers on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Tuesday will have clouds mixed with some sun and scattered to widely scattered chances of rain showers with fog late in the evening and through the overnight. Wednesday will have less chances of scattered showers and again a mix of sun and clouds. Thursday will have a return of scattered to widely scattered rain showers with those greatest chances during the day. Friday looks to be dry, but as the week progresses, chances of showers are likely possible. Rain accumulations of more than an inch statewide are likely this week, with locally heavier rains possible. Monday could also see a generalized threat of thunderstorms, as well. So far, the threat of severe weather is not there. Water conditions will be mixed all week. They start off hazardous with Gale Warnings as winds will gust to 40 knots and seas 10-15 feet. Tuesday will have borderline to good conditions for southern ocean waters, rivers and bays, conditions will remain cautious with Small Craft Advisories for northern ocean waters, and again, hazardous for midshore to offshore waters. Wednesday will be good for rivers and bays borderline for ocean waters, and cautious for midshore to offshore waters. Thursday will have good conditions for all locations, except midshore to offshore waters will be borderline. Friday will see a return of good to borderline conditions with cautious conditions for midshore to offshore waters. Water temperatures are steady in the 40’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-5/15.

A few waves of low pressure will move along a stationary front draped across DELMARVA tonight through Tuesday. High pressure will move over the area Tuesday Night and early Wednesday. A broad area of low pressure will move across the Canadian Border during the midweek period. Its attached fronts will affect the region on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and Friday, followed by another low moving towards the area next weekend.

The weekend will be mixed with chances of showers both days. High temperatures will continue in the 50’s with overnight lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mostly good for Saturday and then cautious for Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Cloudy
Precipitation:  80%-90% chance of rain during the day, 60%-70% chance of rain at night
Temperatures
High:    Upper 40’s to low 50’s inland, low to mid 50’s at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
Low:   Upper 30’s to mid 40’s
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 7:02pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy, Fog at night
Precipitation:  30%-60% chance of showers during the day
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 50’s
Low:   Mid to upper 40’s inland and at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 7:03pm
First Qtr: 1:04pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers
Temperatures
High:   Upper 50’s to upper 60’s
Low:   Mid to upper 40’s inland and at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 7:04pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-50% chance of showers during the day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 50’s to low 60’s
Low:   Low to mid 40’s inland and at the shore, upper 30’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 7:05pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 50’s
Low:   Upper 30’s to low 40’s inland and at the shore, low 30’s northern areas
UV Index:  2-5/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:03am
Sunset: 7:06pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Thunderstorm Risks for Monday




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  48°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  E 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Fog, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  4-8 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 35 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Fog, Visibility 1 nm or less increasing to 1-3 nm after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  4-8 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm in the morning
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet

Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 5 knots becoming NE around 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  40°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: E 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: ENE 24 to 32 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: E 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: ENE 22 to 29 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Wind:  E 23-26 knots with gusts to 35 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 14-17 knots becoming N 10-13 knots after midnight with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Tuesday
Wind:  N 6-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  WSW 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  E 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet

Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  E 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-7 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: W 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet


Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  45°F-47°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Thursday Night
Winds: W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday[/]
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: E 27 to 36 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: E 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  ESE 10 feet at 8 seconds

Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 8 seconds

Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SW 4 feet at 5 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Coastal Flooding Monday Night-Tuesday
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2016, 08:30:26 PM »
There is potential for minor coastal flooding on the high tides both on the ocean and back bays through Tuesday. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for Ocean, Monmouth, and Middlesex Counties with tides running 1-2 above Mean Higher High Water (High Tide), but still below High Astronomical Tide. The Counties in the advisories have the highest chances of coastal/tidal flooding, however Southern Coastal NJ should be alert and aware of the potential as well. High winds and waves to 10 feet on the ocean will bring water up on the beaches and cause beach erosion. The onshore flow will also push water into the bays causing flooding there. Areas that are prone to flooding and normally flood on higher than normal tides, should be prepared for flooding. Any rains tomorrow will complicate this issue as well.

Be safe and have a way of receiving weather alerts!

Quote
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016


NJZ012>014-020-026-151000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0008.160315T0500Z-160315T1000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
812 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
  ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE RARITAN BAY...BARNEGAT BAY...AND
  OTHER BACK BAYS OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEAN SIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM
  EDT. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS MAY OCCUR UP TO 5 HOURS LATER.

* WAVES...WAVES OF UP TO 10 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SIDE
  WHICH COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SOME ROADS
  MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$


Offline BigAl13

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Mar 14-18, 2016
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2016, 05:38:40 AM »
thanks matt  t^
Its better to sit in a boat and think about God, than to sit in a church and think about fishing.

 

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