NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: July 18-22, 2016

[Pfishingruven]

Another unsettled week with hot temperatures and borderline to cautious water conditions. Weather will be unsettled for the start of the week as a system moves through the area on Monday and Tuesday bringing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Monday will have a Slight and Marginal Risk of severe weather with the main threat of wind damage. Tuesday will have a generalized risk of thunderstorms. All storms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and gusty winds. Some of these storms may be capable of wind damage, hail, and even isolated tornadoes. Risks will be updated daily. Wednesday will have high pressure controlling the area, however this high pressure will bring the highest temperatures of the week. Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry at this point. Highs will be in the 80’s and 90’s. Wednesday could see some 70’s at the shore, after the cold front passes and before high pressure completely moves in. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s with some mid to upper 50’s possible across northern areas. Humidity will be Moderate to High. Water conditions will be very mixed and overall more borderline than cautious. However, Monday will be cautious across the board with winds to 20+ knots and seas to 4 feet. Rivers and bays will see good to cautious conditions on Tuesday then good conditions for the rest of the week, except the Delaware Bay which will have borderline conditions due to seas to 3 feet. Inshore ocean waters will have a mix of good to cautious conditions for the rest of the week both due to winds and seas. Midshore to offshore waters will have borderline to cautious conditions. A lot of this week’s forecast is very borderline with the difference being 5-10 knot winds and seas at 2 feet up to 4 feet. Of course, 15 knot winds may not be so bad, but 25 knot winds will cause problems, as will 4 foot seas as opposed to 2 foot seas! Surf and beach conditions will be borderline on Monday and Tuesday for some locations, then good for Wednesday and Thursday, then borderline to cautious on Friday for some areas. Monday and Tuesday will see surf heights to 4 feet in places, winds to 20+ knots, and a Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Friday will see winds increase to 20 knots and surf heights to 5 feet in places with a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Remember, a Low Risk does not mean any risk. Check Surf Zone and Rip Current Forecasts daily and follow and observe any posting by local Beach Patrols and Lifeguards. Any outdoor activities should remember that showers and most importantly thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. Be aware of changing weather and have a way of receiving weather alerts. Even on days where there is a low chance of thunderstorms, elevated temperatures and high humidity could allow storms to move in quickly or pop-up. Water temperatures are steady in the 70’s and 80’s. Surf temperatures are in the mid to upper 70’s. UV Index will be Very High at 8-10/15
 
High pressure will remain to our southeast through Monday. A surface trough will cross the area Monday afternoon, then a cold front will move through late Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in Wednesday into Thursday before settling to our east. The next cold front should arrive Saturday night and Sunday.


The weekend will have chances of showers and thunderstorms for both days with highs in the 80’s and 90’s and overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline to cautious.

The tropics are still quiet!

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy, Patchy fog in the morning for some areas
Precipitation:  0% - 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 30% - 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to mid 90’s
Low:   Low to mid 70’s inland, mid to upper 70’s at the shore, upper 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:43am
Sunset: 8:22pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, low 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low to mid 60’s with upper 50’s northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:44am
Sunset: 8:22pm
Full Moon: 6:58pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s inland, upper 70’s at the shore
Low:   Mid 60’s inland, upper 60’s to low 70’s at the shore, upper 50’s northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:44am
Sunset: 8:21pm


Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low to mid 70’s with mid 60’s for northern areas
UV Index:  8-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:45am
Sunset: 8:20pm


Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Low 70’s inland, mid to upper 70’s at the shore, upper 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  8-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:46am
Sunset: 8:20pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Monday - Monday



Severe/Thunderstorm Risks Monday & Tuesday





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming W 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:     NW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:     NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:     NE 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:     S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday Night
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:    SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    W 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds:    WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:    SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:    SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides
Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:    NE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:   1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:    ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    NW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds:    WSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  66°F-76°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     SSW 7-10 knots increasing 11-14 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
 Monday Night
Wind:     SW 8-12 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:     NNW 5-8 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:     Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming NNE 6-11 knots after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:     NE 9-11 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:     SE 6-11 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:     Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 6-11 knots in the morning
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:     SSW 10-12 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    NNE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    E 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    E 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds:    WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77°F - 82°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 in the afternoon
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:     W 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:     W 5 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:     NE 10 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:     SE 10-15 knots becoming S 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Thursday
Winds:    W 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Winds:    SW 10-15 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:     SW 10 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:     SW 10-15 knots
Seas:     3 feet
Surf:     2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  75°F - 77°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    SW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:    SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:    SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:    SSW 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds:    NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds:    N 3 to 5 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    S 2 to 3 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds:    WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

There is a Slight Risk of severe weather for Northern and Western parts of the state and a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the rest of the state, as well as neighboring states from Maryland north into Vermont.

Thunderstorms have already begun to develop in Pennsylvania and NY and will move east. Thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union & Warren Counties as well as adjacent coastal waters until 2000 hours! Just because your area is not under a Watch does not mean severe weather is not possible. This Watch extends from Maryland up to the Northeast into Vermont.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #395


Be aware of changing weather and have a way of receiving weather alerts!

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the rest of the state including Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean & Salem as well as adjacent coastal waters and neighboring areas in PA, MD, DC, VA & WV until 2000 hours.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #396

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the entire state to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with the main threat of damaging winds. Hail and tornadoes are more likely across northwestern parts of the state, but all areas could see isolated chances.

Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect for the entire state until 8PM!

**Also Small Craft Advisories are in effect from Sandy Hook east along LI and south to Little Egg Inlet through 12AM! Winds will be sustained at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas 2-4 feet. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect for NJ Beaches for Monday with surf heights 2-4 feet and winds picking up to 20-25 knots. NY/LI beaches have a Rip Current Statement in effect for a High Risk of Rip Currents today as southwest winds increase and increase surf heights at 3-5 feet!

[Down Deep Fleet]

Thanks again for providing an invaluable service   

[Pfishingruven]

There is a threat of severe weather today, Friday. The northern part of the state is in a Slight Risk, while the bulk of the state is in a Marginal Risk, and Southern Cape May County is only in a Generalized Risk. Organized thunderstorms will move into the area this afternoon/evening with a line of storms. The main threat will be damaging winds and hail, in addition to heavy rains and dangerous lightning. There is also the potential for supercell development, in which winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado are possible.

Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts.