Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: July 25-29, 2016  (Read 2556 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Another hot week with chances of showers and thunderstorms, but mostly good water conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Storms on Monday could be strong to severe with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds. Daily updates on any severe threats. The main headline will be heat and humidity again, as a warm front lifts north through the area. All week temperatures will be in the mid 80’s to upper 90’s with high humidity, making heat indices well over 100 and pushing 105+ at times during the week. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s. Coolest high temperatures will be at the shore, but only by a few degrees and coolest lows will be in northern areas. Water conditions will be cautious for ocean waters, but good for rivers and bays for Monday. Tuesday will have borderline conditions inshore, cautious midshore to offshore, and good for rivers and bays. Wednesday and Thursday will have good conditions for all locations and Friday will be good for all locations with the potential for deteriorating conditions late in the day. Thunderstorms could be a problem, causing higher winds and seas than forecast. Surf and beach conditions will be good with surf heights 2-4 feet for some locations through Tuesday and a Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. The rest of the week will have 1-3 foot waves with a Low Risk of Rip Currents. Remember to check Surf Zone Forecasts and Rip Current Risks daily, as well as following local beach patrols. There will be chances of thunderstorms most of the week. Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts. Water temperatures are steady in the 70’s and 80’s. Surf temperatures have dropped into the mid 60’s due to a strong southerly upwelling this weekend! UV Index will be Moderate to Very High at 6-10/15.

A warm front will slowly push northward through the area through Monday morning. A cold front will approach from the west, moving into the region late Monday night and Tuesday, then stalls near or just to the south of the area through the midweek period. Another system may impact the area over the weekend.



The weekend will have chances of showers and thunderstorms for both days with highs in the mid 80’s and 90’s and overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline inshore and borderline to cautious for midshore to offshore.

The tropics are still quiet!

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy, Patchy fog in the morning for some areas
Precipitation:  0% - 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 30% - 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90’s inland, upper 80’s to low 90’s at the shore
Low:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s with upper 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 8:17pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s inland, low 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low 70’s inland, mid 70’s at the shore, mid 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 8:16pm
Last Qtr: 7:01pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny then mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% - Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80’s to low 90’s inland, mid to upper 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low 70’s with mid 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 8:15pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% - 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Low 90’s inland, mid to upper 80’s at the shore
Low:   Low 70’s inland, mid 70’s at the shore, upper 60’s for northern areas
UV Index:  6-10/15 (High - Very High)
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 8:14pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% - 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80’s
Low:   Low 70’s inland, mid 70’s at the shore, upper 60’s for northern areas
UV Index:  6-10/15 (High - Very High)
Sunrise: 5:52am
Sunset: 8:13pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Monday - Monday



Severe/Thunderstorm Risks Monday & Tuesday





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  82°F
Monday
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:     W 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:     NW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:     NW 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:     NE 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:     S 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:     SE 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:     S 5 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:     SE 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:     E 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  82°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    WSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    W 7 to 10 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NNE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    SSE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:    S 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    S 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds:    WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:    SE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    S 7 to 10 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides
Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    NNW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:   1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:    SE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    NNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:    SE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds:    NNW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  60°F-75°F
Monday
Wind:     SSW 5-8 knots increasing 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
 Monday Night
Wind:     S 6-8 knots becoming WSW after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:     Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:     SSW 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:     Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:     S 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:     Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-8 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:     S 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:     SE 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:     E 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf:     0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  79°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    W 9 to 12 knots
Seas:    S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    E 0 to 0 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NNE 3 to 5 knots
Seas:    S 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:    S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds:    ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:    SE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds:    NE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:     1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  79°F - 82°F
Monday
Wind:     S 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:     W 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:     W 5 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:     SW 5 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:     Light and variable winds becoming SE 5 knots in the afternoon
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:     S 5-10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Thursday
Winds:    SE 5-10 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet
Surf:     1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Winds:    S 5-10 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Friday
Wind:     SE 5 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:     SE 5 knots becoming SE 5 knots after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  74°F - 77°F
Monday Morning
Winds:    SW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:    SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds:    SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds:    NW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:    SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds:    WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:    SSW 4 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds:    NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:    SSW 2 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds:    ENE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:    SSW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds:    NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds:    S 5 to 6 knots
Seas:    ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds:    ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Thunderstorm Watch & Severe Weather Threat for Monday
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 01:45:38 PM »
There is Slight Risk for severe weather today and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2000 hours for Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union & Warren Counties as well as all adjacent Marine Waters and neighboring areas including parts of CT, NY & PA.

The main threat today will be thunderstorms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds. Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts. There are already some storms across parts of PA and NY.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415











Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Update to Severe Weather & Watches
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2016, 04:51:07 PM »
The SPC has placed northern parts of the state in an Enhanced Risk, while the rest of the state is in a Slight Risk. Enhanced Risk Areas will have the potential for heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The wind damage risk percentage has increased to 30% for this enhanced area, as well. The rest of the state is unchanged, but a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 2200 hours for Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland & Salem Counties as well as all adjacent Marine Waters and neighboring states of DE, MD, DC, VA & WV.

There are currently Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in central and northern parts of the state and a Tornado Warning has been issued for NE Pennsylvania potentially entering extreme Northwestern NJ in Sussex County.

Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #416









Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather & Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Thursday
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 02:03:19 PM »
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight, Marginal & Generalized Risk of severe weather for the state. There is also a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until Midnight for Cnetral and Southern parts of the state including Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, & Somerset Counties, all adjacent Marine Waters and neighboring areas of DE, MD, DC, PA, VA & WV. There is also a Flash Flood Watch for most of the state.

The main threat will be wind gusts and heavy rains from multicellular storms, however isolated supercells that could produce tornadoes are also possible. Storms will be capable of heavy, flooding rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds. Isolated hail and tornadoes are always possible with severe thunderstorms.

Be aware of changing weather conditions, have a way of receiving weather alerts, never drive through flooded roadways, "Turn Around, Don't Drown," and "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!"

Be safe!

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #418









« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 02:17:48 PM by Pfishingruven »


 

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