Weekend Outlook/Tropical Storm Hermine

[Pfishingruven]

 
               
Well, the blast of cooler air comes ahead of and with a Tropical Storm that could strengthen into a Hurricane. Forecast brings early effects of rains to the area on Saturday, with full effects Sunday, Monday, and even into Tuesday. TS Hermine will move out over the Atlantic around the Carolinas and head northeast, before stalling and moving northwest. Strengthening could occur back to a hurricane over the warm ocean waters. There is some chances that it will become post-tropical, but let’s not worry about what it will be, but rather the effects. Heavy rains, severe weather, localized inland flooding, coastal and tidal flooding, gusty winds, beach erosion, and hazardous water conditions will all be present. Right now, upwards of 10 inches of rain is possible, winds to 75 mph, but most likely much less than that in the 30-50 mph range, thunderstorms and severe weather, including tornadoes are always possible, minor to major tidal flooding with a 3 foot surge and 9 feet of water from MLLW (9 feet total), and seas to 15-20 feet on the ocean. If the track comes west, more effects, if it goes east less effects. We will be on the weaker side of the storm, but I am concerned with some stalling off the coast possible and a turn inland before Long Island? Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all Coastal Counties and Marine Zones. I am not going to post detailed water forecasts, as even Saturday’s Forecasts call for 25+ knot winds and seas 5-10 feet and only increasing. Tomorrow will be the day to make your final decisions on moving boats. These numbers do not compare to Sandy, yet, but anything is always possible! I will be available (off from work) and in the office for the next 3 days. I will post any updates necessary. Make all necessary plans for wind damage (power outages), flooding, severe weather, etc…by tomorrow. Have your plans and kits ready. Have a way of receiving weather alerts and weather updates. Be prepared for changes in the forecast because, they always happen. Below is the NWS Philadelphia Briefing! Any questions, do not hesitate to contact me, either here, PM, email, or by cell phone!

"Big" Al…I know you are going to ask, and rightfully so! Sandy Hook Forecast is for 8.46 feet of water above Mean Low Low Water…Sandy was over 13 feet. Some of the Nor’Easters were worse this Winter, but I would really watch this storm with winds and any rain, you could see more water than that!

BE SAFE!!! Updates daily or any major changes...

High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and into New England over the weekend and into the new week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hermine will track along the Southeast Coast and emerge off the Carolina coast Saturday morning. Hermine will continue to be located near our coastline before slowly drifting offshore throughout most of next week. Another area of high pressure will build toward the region by the middle and later parts of next week.

Next week will be affected by Hermine through Tuesday before clearing out later Tuesday Night, possibly. If Hermine clears out, Wednesday through Friday will be dry with highs back into the upper 80’s and 90’s and lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will improve, but how quickly is yet to be determined.

Try to enjoy the Labor Day Weekend!!

NWS PHILADELPHIA BRIEFING on HERMINE

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of rain all day, Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High:     Mid to upper 70’s
Low:     Low 60’s inland, upper 60’s at the shore, low 50’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-4/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:26am
Sunset: 7:25pm


Sunday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High:     Mid to upper 70’s
Low:     Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-4/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:27am
Sunset: 7:24pm


Monday~Labor Day
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Tropical Storm/Hurricane Conditions Likely
Temperatures
High:     Upper 70’s inland, low 70’s at the shore
Low:     Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-5/15 (Low – Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:28am
Sunset: 7:22pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday – Thursday Maps





Precipitation Totals & Excessive Rainfall






Tropical Storm Hermine





Surge/Tidal Forecasts

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Outlook for the Weekend and Hermine is updated. I didn't bother with all of the marine forecasts because they are the same...HAZARDOUS!

If anyone needs any more information, any type of forecasts, please feel free to contact me however necessary!

Thanks

[IrishAyes]

Way too much red for me. I think I'll stay at the dock this weekend. 

[Down Deep Fleet]

Once again, thank you for your service. It doesn't get any better. To all, stay safe. 

[Hotrod]

 

[Reckless]

This will probably kill the rest of fluke season!!

[Pfishingruven]

I hope your weekend is going well. Hermine has gone more east and has spared the state much in the way of anything besides some showers and clouds today. Cloudy skies were definitely a result of outer bands from Hermine and water, surf and beach conditions were cautious to hazardous.

Hermine is currently a post-tropical storm, looking extra-tropical, with winds at 70 MPH moving, central pressure of 998 mb, moving ENE at 12 MPH. This would be equal to a strong tropical storm, approaching hurricane strength. We have actually seen worse Nor'Easters over the last year, however, this storm should not be taken lightly. Always being prepared for the worst and expecting the worst, will get you through anything thrown our way!

The track of Hermine is currently forecast farther to the east, out to sea. This spares the state the bulk of any effects! The majority of the rains will stay off the coast, major thunderstorms off the coast, not as high winds, and less flooding threat. Still, expect gusty winds to 50+ knots, heavy rains with some thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather, minor to moderate flooding with some areas seeing major flooding, high and rough surf, beach erosion, storm surge and coastal flooding, and hazardous water conditions. Flooding guidance and storm surge guidance have dropped. Southern Areas will see the greatest flooding decreasing to the north. Cape May will see around 8 feet of total water from MLLW. Sandy Hook less than 8...as of the most current forecasts.

The biggest issue will be that the storm still stalls off of the NJ coast for a few days and will batter the coastal areas for a longer period, even though, right now, not as severely. Hermine does not look to move off until later Tuesday/Early Wednesday.

So, continue to be prepared! Have a way of receiving weather alerts and be aware of changing weather conditions. If you live in a flood prone area, it will likely flood with this storm. Power outages are possible, as well. All coastal counties and marine zones are still in a Tropical Storm Warning. Remember, these forecasts change every 6 hours or so. This forecast could change for the better or worse...with a large storm, no matter what it is classified as or how strong, it could definitely cause major problems if it shifts just a few 100 miles west!!

NWS PHI BRIEFING HERMINE

[Pfishingruven]

Well, it looks like we dodged a bullet with Hermine. The forecast and track for this storm was poor, at best. However, I won't dwell on this issue, instead I will say that the potential for a mess was there, everyone was well prepared, and we were lucky it spared us the worst. This was a deadly storm and many other states were not as lucky as us. Why did we get lucky...the storm stayed east and out to sea. Besides some minor flooding, some gusty winds at the shore, some significant beach erosion, and dangerous water conditions, the weekend has been mostly good!

This will be the final update on Hermine. There will be lasting water condition effects, but nothing else. The westward turn is taking place more to our north on Long Island and New England. I will have full weather and water outlooks for the remainder of the week, coming up by this evening.

NWS PHI Hermine Final Briefing

[fluke - u]

  ...Thanks for keeping us posted ....