Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011(was Weaker System Moving into the Area!)

[Pfishingruven]

I waited to make mention of this as the models have been all over the place the last 7 days.  Today at 0800 model runs were the first time any of them agreed with one another.

There will be generalized rain in the area from today through Saturday.  Some areas are seeing or will see snow tonight and then again on Saturday...this is mostly in Northern NJ and west of Philly, as well as higher altitudes.  Late Friday night and into Saturday a weaker to weak LOW Pressure system will move into the area off of the coast of NJ.  You could call this a Nor' Easter, but a weak one at that.  This will not be anywhere near what we have seen in the past around this time of the year.  It will bring rain, 1-2 inches total, some wintry precipitation to some areas(snow NNJ, flakes or wintry mix elsewhere), gusty winds on land, Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings for the waters, and coastal flooding.  Areas receiving snow tonight and Saturday will be getting a heavy wet snow and should be prepared for power loss and tree limbs falling.

By Sunday, this will all clear out and temperatures will be highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's.  Halloween will be middle 50's and middle to upper 30's after sunset.

Here is a link to NWS Warnings and Watches for NJ.

NWS Warnings, Watches & Advisories

Attached are some models and precipitation totals.

Added Snowfall Total Map for Saturday.

Any changes, I will update you.

 

[Still Running]

Great! Just what I wanted 6-10 for me.

[Offshore Madness]

  figures

[IrishAyes]

 

[Kenny]

I'm in the same boat Rick...

[Offshore Madness]

you guys live up northwest jersey?

[Kenny]

Yep....

I'm in Chester and Rick is further north in Jefferson....

[Offshore Madness]

Wow thats a haul from where i am..Sucks about the snow but you no its called white gold for a reason!!!

[Pfishingruven]

I am seeing such mixed forecasts for this storm.  NONE of the models can agree on anything and a lot depends on the track.

Some hope for you northwest NJ guys...seeing some numbers closer to 3-6 inches with 10+ locally.  A lot depends on the track and how quickly or slowly it moves through.

Either way, heavy, wet snow in October, which does not sound like fun .

[Scott G.]

 

[Pfishingruven]

This system has already stalled a bit and the rain/snow system from last night moved quicker than anticipated.  Today was supposed to be cloudy, rainy and colder.  1 out of 3 isn't bad !  So, today should remain sunny, now.  

The slowing system that will become the Nor' Easter won't be moving in until Saturday morning now and will be here through Sunday morning.  There is no change, though, in the amount of time it effects us.  There is a potential change in the track, bringing it closer to the coast.  Closer to the coast would mean higher snowfall amounts and wintry conditions over more of the area.  The coast could also see higher winds, heavier surf, more beach erosion and coastal flooding.

 

[njbob49]

Thanks for the updates.  I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy.  

Tight Lines,
Bob G

[Offshore Madness]

Thanks for the updates.  I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy.  

Tight Lines,
Bob G

 

[Still Running]

Ready

[Andys Delight]

I have had it with the weather!  HAD IT!!!!!!     

[Pfishingruven]

Smart move, Rick!

Thanks for the updates.  I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy.  

Tight Lines,
Bob G

 

[Pfishingruven]

OK...this is hands down going to be a full blown Nor' Easter.  This has been an incredibly hard storm to pin point.  For the Tri State Area we are going to see a strong storm now.  Track is bringing it right along the coast!!  New England, is going to see a strong to powerful storm.  However, it should move out and doesn't look like it is going hang around much more than 24 hours or so.  If it stalls off of our coast, that is an entire different beast!

Anyone in snow predicted areas, make sure you are ready.  Widespread power outages are very likely.  Anyone with a boat still in the water.  I would make sure you check your lines and pumps today.  Gusty winds, 60+ mph are likely.  Some coastal flooding as well.  We might see a little more rain, 2-4 inches and it could be heavy at times.  Of course, heavy surf, beach erosion and slightly higher tides.  I don't see the winds pushing too much water into the back.  As of this moment, the storm won't be around long enough to cause a large surge of water.  Don't be surprised if you hear thunder or "thunder snow" with this system either...it is highly possible.

NWS Watches, Warnings have not really changed.  There are active Winter Storm Warnings and Watches across the Tri State Area as well as Coastal Flood Watches, Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings!

Here is a link to some graphics from Accuweather with their updated forecast.  This Meteorologist is good and reliable.  Unfortunately, the best meteorologist in the world can't compete all the time with mother nature.  This might be one of those events where changes are occurring so rapidly, you just need to keep and eye or ear to the latest weather updates.

I will be out later this evening for a school Halloween Party, but will be back by 9PM or so.  I will keep you updated.  If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.

Accuweather Nor' Easter Forecast Fri 10/28/2011

 

[Still Running]

9:30 am and snow fall just started here. At least I just got the boat covered.

[Offshore Madness]

Heavy rain around 6am then up to now a steady rain.Wind is blowin pretty good. Cold. snow forcasted to start around 5pm.

[Pfishingruven]

Looks like the track is right on the coast and rain is changing over to snow a few hours earlier than expected with the temperatures dropping sooner.  The storm is right on track, time wise...no stalling or slowing.  There is also a lot of moisture from the remnants of Rina coming right up the coast and feeding this storm.  The earlier change over with lowering temperatures and additional moisture means higher possibility of more accumulation of snow.

9:30 am and snow fall just started here. At least I just got the boat covered.

 

Heavy rain around 6am then up to now a steady rain.Wind is blowin pretty good. Cold. snow forcasted to start around 5pm.

Where are you located?