Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Official Forecasts Archives

[Hunter 2]

I guess I will pull the boat out for a few days. I hope a free soars not fall on it by my house.

[Sam3]

They say because of the path, it's going to be worse then Irene. 

I heard the pressure is going to be somewhere @944mb when it hits land. That's a lot lower than Irene was.

Installing a generator switchover panel tomorrow, just in case.

[IKAT]

As of 5AM they have the path a little south now

[fellinger]

As of 5AM they have the path a little south now

That's going to be a lot of water being pushed through the bay and up the river 

[ped579]

As I see it the wind and storm surge as always is the problem in most storms.  With this one time will be a factor as well.  By time I mean the storm is a slow mover and that will equate in the storm being here longer that usual.

With the storm being here longer the winds (if we listen to NHC) will be out of the east for a number of days not allowing the bays to flush out.  Here lies the problem the high tides will keep building in height with each tide.  If the bays do not have the time to flush out all the properties along the bay will be in trouble.

The last major Halloween storm we had was a good example of this.  We had to evacuate the barrier islands and do search and rescues in Ortley Beach and Lavellette with the help of the Nation Guard.  I hope and pray this one takes a different course and speeds up in the upper latitudes. 

Our best case sinareo will be the storm will hit to the north of us which will give us the opposite effect.

Be safe out there and as we wait for further information it is a good time to get your emergency plans in order.  If you need help there just ask and I will post some guidelines.

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

Not a lot of changes with Sandy.  It is still a Category 1 Hurricane, with 80 mph sustained winds.  The wind field is beginning to widen or spread out along the entirety of the storm.  This is a slow transition process from tropical to extratropical.  What will cause the tropical portion of the storm to fall apart, will actually strengthen the extratropical storm.  The NHC has moved the track south some, bringing Sandy into Cape May and up the Delaware.  This does not change anything for NJ.  Unlike a tropical cyclone, winds are not going to be concentrated in and around the center.  The wind field will be the entire storm.  This is a large storm, so whether it makes landfall in Long Island or Maryland, NJ will feel the same effects.  

This new track is actually a worse scenario for the coast and areas along the Delaware.  The first reason this is worse is that it will leave most of NJ on the east side of the storm.  This is the strongest side of any cyclonic storm.  This path will expose the entire coast as well as inland areas to the strongest winds and rains.  The other reason this is worse is because of the storm surge.  The Delaware is going to act as a funnel, channeling a storm surge of 4-5 feet up the Bay and River.  This is going to cause a great deal of coastal and inland flooding!  Forecast tidal increase of 3-4 feet for Sandy Hook area as well.

A couple of comments I want to address.  First, this will likely be worse than Irene for several reasons.  First, Irene was in the process of weakening or falling apart.  Dry air became entrained in the storm just off of the Delmarva.  This dry air got into the core/eye of Irene and destroyed any organization she had.  Still, she caused a lot of damage and power outages.  Another reason this could be worse is the difference between tropical and extratropical, widening the wind field.  Another reason is the unfavorable conditions that caused Irene to dissipate, will actually drive an extratropical storm.  The atmosphere will be very favorable for strengthening.  Extratropical storms are not as affected by land either.  Mid latitude cyclones can form over land, like the system that just came through the upper midwest and into the northeast a week or so ago.  Another issue will be the central pressure.  Models are all agreeing on a sub 950mb central pressure, with some going down in the 940's and 930's.  This will not be impossible, but highly likely with the favorable conditions.  For reference a 950mb pressure is equivalent to a Category 3 Hurricane and below 944mb is equal to a Category 4 Hurricane!  Now, take that wind and spread it out over several hundreds of miles...

I am not hyping this storm, just passing along what could be and what will likely happen.  IF this storm takes a Maryland to Long Island landfalling track, at the intensity the models and meteorologists are suggesting, this is going to be a dangerous storm of historic proportions.  Now is the time to be ready!!  Also, temperatures for next week will dip down into the 30's at night after this storm moves out.  So, if you lose power, you will need to have an alternate source of heat!







Cape May Forecast Storm Surge



Sandy Hook Storm Surge Forecast

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Sandy Visible Satellite Loop

Sandy Enhanced Satellite Loop


I will update as necessary.  Briefing from the NWS should be out in a couple of hours and I anticipate some type of statement from the State and Governor, as well as County and Local Governments.

[Still Running]

Matt,
What side of the storm gets more rain?

[Pfishingruven]

As I see it the wind and storm surge as always is the problem in most storms.  With this one time will be a factor as well.  By time I mean the storm is a slow mover and that will equate in the storm being here longer that usual.

With the storm being here longer the winds (if we listen to NHC) will be out of the east for a number of days not allowing the bays to flush out.  Here lies the problem the high tides will keep building in height with each tide.  If the bays do not have the time to flush out all the properties along the bay will be in trouble.

The last major Halloween storm we had was a good example of this.  We had to evacuate the barrier islands and do search and rescues in Ortley Beach and Lavellette with the help of the Nation Guard.  I hope and pray this one takes a different course and speeds up in the upper latitudes. 

Our best case sinareo will be the storm will hit to the north of us which will give us the opposite effect.

Be safe out there and as we wait for further information it is a good time to get your emergency plans in order.  If you need help there just ask and I will post some guidelines.

Paul

Exactly, Paul!  Great information!!  We need a northern hit and that could make a tremendous difference for the state as a whole and the general coastal areas.  Of course, the models are not trending that way at all...but we are still several days out and this could change.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Matt,
What side of the storm gets more rain?

Traditionally, with a tropical storm, the east side of the storm.  If you split the storm into 4 quadrants, the northeast quadrant or right upper quadrant is always the worst with the most rain, highest winds and strongest thunderstorms.  Water and moisture gets wrapped up and moved into the cyclonic motion.  In an extratropical storm or hybrid the east side will still be the strongest side, however, winds will be spread out along the entirety of the storm.  Rain will likely be strongest on the east side as well, however, each storm can be unique and be more right or left sided.  We won't really know where the rains form again in this storm until it moves north of the Florida area.

They are only calling for 6-13 inches total from this storm, which in the realm of cyclonic storms is not a lot of rain.  However, it will be enough to cause flooding!  This is where it loses it's tropical properties of excessive rain.  13 inches is better than 24+ inches that fell in Florida and the Gulf Coast with TS Debby and Isaac!

 

[Still Running]

  Thanks

  Thats my side.

For more info:

http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

[fellinger]

One word......... what the F!?

Ok maybe more than 1 word but you get my concern.

I'm flying to Vermont on Sat pm to teach Sun am and return right after. Hope the conditions hold out so I can get back.

[Pfishingruven]

One word......... what the F!?

Ok maybe more than 1 word but you get my concern.

I'm flying to Vermont on Sat pm to teach Sun am and return right after. Hope the conditions hold out so I can get back.

You are definitely cutting it close!!

[Ms Fish]

As of 5AM they have the path a little south now

That's going to be a lot of water being pushed through the bay and up the river 

Agreed...Im pulling 'FISH" tomorrow....even if the storm took another turn, last time, when I saw the people who DIDNT pull their's boats, they sunk or broke in half. Noooooooooooo thanks! Matt, thank you so much for all the information. Youre truly a saint and will be helping so many people get prepared. Such as me!    

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI/Mount Holly just released Briefing Package #4. Not many changes to it.  I'm not sure when "OFFICIAL" word will come and they will start considering evacuations, etc...

NWS PHI Briefing Package #4

Paul, do you have any idea the timeline for this?  I would have expected a statement already from the Governor...something like "Get the hell off our beaches!" , but nothing has come out yet.  I hope they don't wait too long?!

[ped579]

My unofficial word Matt (as I was talking to Toms River OEM this morning over at the beach in Ortley) is that they are opening up the EOC Saturday but not talking about evacuation times yet.  They will be having a phone conference meeting with all the EOC Sat on the conditions.

Evacuations might start Sunday during the day or earlier depending on the latest NWS readings.

[ped579]

I will post some pictures later but right now there are tons of front end loaders closing up the beach access points and  building a second set of dunes to help stop the erosion on the main dunes.

This is the first time talking to my old boss that he is concerned this might be the big one we all have been waiting for.  I got pictures of the Surf Club and the Golden Gull as they might be history, but we will have to wait and see.

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Paul!  If you want my opinion, I agree that this has the markings and the makings of the "big one!"

I am hearing talk of mandatory and voluntary evacuations in Cape May County, but I was unable to confirm this.  If you live in Cape May County, please make sure you check on evacuation orders.

If you live on any barrier island or in an area that is low lying or regularly floods, please consider evacuating even if you are not ordered to do so.  4-6 surge is a lot of water!  Think back to Isaac on the Gulf Coast and all the damage it did...

 

[ped579]

So true Matt.  We are also looking at maybe 6 high tide scheduled to occur during this surge.  The back bays will not have time to get rid of each tide change.  If you are in the back bay area please make sure your evacuation plans are in order and follow the directions of your OEM Officials on this one.

Paul

[ped579]

Going out to secure my antennas.  Right now the Hurricane Watch is on 14.325MHz is operating full time and the net will be operating on 40 meters if 20 goes out.  I have to boost the lines on my 40 meter antenna to handle higher winds.  Be back in a little bit.

Paul

[Still Running]

Here you go

http://k2jji.org/2012/08/28/the-hurricane-watch-net-is-active-14-325mhz/