Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Official Forecasts Archives

[BigAl13]

Im going to start battening down the hatches tommorow If Irene put 2" of water in my house how much is Sandy gonna I hope Bobs done with that arc soon looks like ill be renting it

[ped579]

Thanks Rick.  I usually run phone patches for the net up in this area.  Plus fill the NHC in on readings in and around the area of Toms River.

If anyone wants to know more about what we do besides talk on the radio around the world this is a good place for up to the minute information as this net is located within the NHC in florida.

http://www.hwn.org/

The call sign for the station within the NHC is WX4NHC.


Hope this helps...

Paul

[Treebeard]

Since I moved the boat down to Manasquan, I sure miss having that Keansburg floodgate between me and the storm surge.. and with the lousy timing of this one coming on the full moon tides, thats what I fear the most   Had them pull Fluka out today.. Hope everyone stays safe down there   

[Pfishingruven]

Not much changes.  Sandy has weakened a bit, as expected going into colder waters.  The wind field continues to broaden and spread out from the center.  This is the transitioning period from tropical to extratropical.  I noticed some very, very dry air becoming entrained in Sandy from the south.  I did not notice any mention of this air in any of the discussion from the NHC.  The track has been brought slightly farther south now into the Delmarva Peninsula.  This does not change anything for the area.   They have upgraded the intensity of the storm at this point.  Models have also upgraded, showing central pressures of 934mb .  That about sums it up !!  A 934mb storm would be unprecedented in this area.  The New England Hurricane of 1938 also known as the Long Island Express had a pressure of 938mb.  Of course, each storm is unique and no single storm is ever like another one in history.





Here are the latest models runs of Storm Surge Forecasts for Atlantic City and Sandy Hook.  Cape May is unchanged.

Sandy Hook is showing 10+ feet over MLLW and 5-6 over normal hide tide marks!!

[Still Running]

Thanks Rick.  I usually run phone patches for the net up in this area.  Plus fill the NHC in on readings in and around the area of Toms River.

If anyone wants to know more about what we do besides talk on the radio around the world this is a good place for up to the minute information as this net is located within the NHC in florida.

http://www.hwn.org/

The call sign for the station within the NHC is WX4NHC.


Hope this helps...

Paul

 

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisory for all NJ Coastal Waters tonight through Saturday followed by a Gale Watch.

Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

ANZ452>455-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T0800Z-121028T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE
  TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
  SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY AND
  7 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

ANZ450-451-271000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T1400Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SATURDAY
  BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
  UP TO 35 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET SATURDAY BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET SATURDAY
  NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Gale Watch
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

ANZ452>455-271000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0097.121027T0800Z-121028T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE
  TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
  SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY AND
  7 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

ANZ430-431-271000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0012.121028T0000Z-121028T1200Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
441 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET OVER LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND AROUND 2 FEET
  OVER UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

I will be out this evening at a school Halloween Party for my son.  Which is good because I think Halloween and Trick or Treat are going to be lost to this storm.  If anyone has any questions please feel free to email me at matt@njswf.com or look me up in the Contacts(on the last page) and call my cell.  If I don't answer, leave me a message and I will get right back to you.

There should not be any major changes this evening.  I will update when I get in tonight.

 

[Still Running]

You have been working hard Matt
Take some time off and enjoy the party.

[Bucktail]

Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?

[IrishAyes]

Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?

Don't know if this is what you are looking for Bob, but it may be helpful for some.


http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html

[Still Running]

Here is a link for JCP&L customers to track power outages. They also say with the forecast people can be without power 7 to 10 days.

http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj_m.html

They are my customer and one of the guys stopped by today, he said they were told to pack an 8 day go bag.

[Pfishingruven]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[overbite]

Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?

Bob Your Local Police should have all that info as each and every county requires each town to have one. I know Monmouth County disaster agency has It.  

I got my Generac 5800 set to go today. just final hook up to the main Panel thou a cross over Panel next to it. also picked up a Backup Sump Pump at Loews . will return it if I do not use it.
Got 25 Gallons of gas on hand but if this lasts  5-7 Days looking for gas will be fun. will hook up to Run The sump Pump, Refrigerator. some lighting. and Optimum Router for Phone, Internet and small TV. The cross over has 6 breakers But the more you use the more gas you burn.  I guess shutting down at night 7 hours would help also.
Got Coleman propane stove . lantern ,Heater  and 2 20-lb tanks filled for the BBQ and another heater. Food water OK. Batteries Got, Flashlights Got, All vehicles  Gassed full.
Snow blower gassed and at the ready,  ya never know look at last year.
Oh and I enclosed The Gen Set weather tight except for exhaust and removable Panels for  Access to starting fueling . and a heavy chain attached and anchored last yer Gen Sets were stolen still running.  I hope I am ready , Bill 

[Bucktail]

Where's the best place to go to find out about evacuation areas?

Don't know if this is what you are looking for Bob, but it may be helpful for some.


http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html

Good link Joe.  But, if I remember from last year, they don't update that too often (or at all) during the storm.  I was hoping there was a website that will list all of the townships that are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders.

As you know, I am only a couple blocks from the bay.  Last year we had a voluntary and we stayed at my brother-in-law's house in Jackson.

Here is a link for JCP&L customers to track power outages. They also say with the forecast people can be without power 7 to 10 days.

http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj_m.html

Bookmarked.  Thanks Rick.

Bob Your Local Police should have all that info as each and every county requires each town to have one. I know Monmouth County disaster agency has It.  

Thanks Bill.

[Bucktail]

Keep up the good work Matt.   A lot of eyes are on this thread.

Not to steal your thunder Matt, but I don't think you can have too much information when something like this happens.  Here's a link to a Facebook page we were watching during the big hurricane last year.

http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews?ref=ts&fref=ts

[Hotrod]

Matt got him beat,,, they get their info from Matt

[ped579]

Bob your local Office of Emergency Management should have that information.  Check them out on line first.

Here are a few for Ocean County

Toms River

Pine Belt Arena, High School North, 1245 Old Freehold Ave. Toms River

Tuckerton

Tuckerton Elementary School, Marine Street, Tuckerton

Pinelands Regional High School, Nugentown Road, Tuckerton

I hope this helps...

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Bucktail and I have no problem with many options for information.  Jersey Shore Hurricane News is teamed up with NJ Severe WX which is a forecaster, not a degreed meteorologist, although he does have a degree in a science field.  He is also part of a larger weather group of actual meteorologists.  He knows his weather and gives accurate, factual information as well!

Thanks Rod !!

[Pfishingruven]

Not many changes to add tonight.  Models and guidance will be all over the place and I will spare you the flip flopping, windshield wiper effect.  Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  Sandy is a Category 1 Hurricane with 75mph winds and a central pressure that has dropped again to 969mb.  This is the transitioning phase.  Sandy is just barely moving at 7mph at 10 degrees almost due north.  Wind field has broadened some more.  Track is mostly unchanged and storm surge all the same for the 3 areas in NJ that are forecast.

Here is the 4th Briefing Package from the NWS PHI.  Governor Christie will likely declare a State of Emergency for all of NJ tomorrow.

I will update this in the AM.  Hopefully we will have some more definitive answers.

NWS PHI Briefing Package #4

[Pfishingruven]

Sorry, this is a little late.  There is a lot of information to digest this morning.  I am condensing and linking many areas to cut down the size of these posts.  Hopefully, this will condense all of the necessary information into a manageable and easily read summary.

A few changes this morning with Sandy.  Winds are unchanged at 75 mph, central pressure is down to 960mb and dropping, moving NNE (20 degrees) at 10 mph.  There is still some weakening going on due to the transition to extratropical which will have finished around the 72 hour mark or just about as she makes landfall on the East Coast.  The track has also changed moving north again bringing the storm into Cape May County and up the Delaware, again.  The models are not backing down on this sub 940mb intensity storm.  Storm surges are mostly unchanged except for Sandy Hook which has increased again.









Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory

Sandy will affect 66+ million people.  There is an updated NWS PHI Briefing Package #6(#5 was missed sometime during the night), however, the Package does not say much.  The NWS has issued several Watches and Advisories this morning.  Two Counties have declared State of Emergencies, Salem and Cape May.  Lowering of Lakes and Reservoirs is being done today as well as any flood gates for certain towns such as Hoboken.  Additional information on actions being taken by State, County and Local Government can be found here NJ OEM Updates

Current Advisories, Watches & Warnings



Small Craft Advisory
Coastal Flood Watch
Flood Watch
Storm Watch
High Wind Watch



Clouds will start making an appearance later today from outer bands of Sandy.  Storm effects will start Sunday later in the day with Monday and Tuesday being the worst of the storm making landfall sometime overnight.  Expect 75+mph sustained winds with higher gusts, 6-10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts in southern areas, coastal flooding with 4-6 feet of storm surge, inland flooding, flash flooding, Delaware Bay and River flooding, and beach erosion from 10-12 foot waves.

Today will likely be the last day you will be able to evacuate and make preparations.  Please convey this information to family and friends.  Also, now is the time to test any items you have stored away in preparation for a storm.  Also, make sure you have some form of Weather Notifications through your cell phone or NOAA Weather Radio, etc...It is possible that I will be limited by power outages, so have at least a backup plan.  Anyone who needs Twitter or App links to obtain weather information, please let me know.

I have not over dramatized this storm, but this is going to be a massive storm with possible catastrophic damage!  This could very well be a historic storm with damage not seen in most of our lifetimes.  I have looked back at analysis maps of previous storms and they cannot even compare with what the models have CONSISTENTLY forecast!!  Now is the time to be safe and think about the safety of lives over property.  Sandy has already killed 21 or so people in her bath through the islands and will likely take more.  Please don't become a statistic or let anyone you know do so either!

I will update as necessary.  Stay Safe!!

-Matt